Jorge Mateo

Mateo helped many fantasy managers to championships in 2022 when he swiped 35 bases and hit 13 home runs across 533 plate appearances for Baltimore. While he reached the 30-steal plateau again last season, most of his production came in the first half, before the Orioles began scaling back his playing time. Mateo totaled just 102 plate appearances after the All-Star break, adding one home run and seven RBI to go along with 10 steals in 12 attempts. There are obvious limitations with his bat and the Orioles appear set to hand the reins at shortstop to top prospect Jackson Holliday in the not-too-distant future, leaving Mateo to serve in a bench role. The playing-time trend last season tells us what we need to know entering 2024, though a trade could easily open up a path back to mixed-league relevance.

Mateo played all over the diamond in his first two seasons, but he was installed as the Orioles every day shortstop and stayed there all season. Defensively, Mateo was superb, but at the dish, a poor approach resulted in an up and down campaign, though through it all Mateo ran as he led the American League with 35 steals. A 27.6% strikeout rate and a .286 BABIP suppressed his average. The low BABIP came from a 41% fly ball rate, which supports low double-digit power, but clashes with a player possessing below average exit velocity and hard-hit rate but runs with 90th percentile sprint speed. Entering his 28-year-old campaign, Mateo could still improve his contact and hit more grounders, but there are no indications he'll adjust. Baltimore signed Adam Frazier and has a wave of more well-rounded infield prospects ready to help in 2023, so Mateo may start shifting to a utility role sooner than later

Mateo has a perfect situation in 2022 in that he plays for a terrible club and he is out of minor-league options, so he should be given ample opportunity to show his athleticism can stick in the major leagues. Mateo has stolen nearly 300 bases in the minors with a 78% success rate with his only power coming in the year of the rabbit ball combined with playing in the PCL (19 homers in 2019). He has otherwise made a career of slashing and dashing impatiently, putting the ball into play to leverage his lightning-quick speed. He played five different positions for Baltimore last season, and comes into the season qualifying at both middle infield spots with the likelihood to earn outfield eligibility in-season. If you are looking for a late-round speed gamble, this is your guy. Ramon Urias and Kelvin Gutierrez are also out of options, making the early part of the season almost an open tryout to see which infielder sticks.

A mid-summer trade to San Diego appeared to crack open a door for Mateo as the Padres had yet to identify a starter at second base at the time. However, Mateo was set back after contracting COVID-19 and consequently missed most of summer camp. When he made his big-league debut, it was as a left-fielder, and he ended up logging more time in the outfield than the infield over the course of the campaign. That versatility could help him get opportunities, but San Diego's roster is even stronger than it was a year ago, so the speedster is certain to be limited to a reserve role if he does make the cut. That's far from a sure thing, as Mateo struggled mightily at the plate last season, collecting only four hits in 26 at-bats and registering a 39.3 K%. Strikeouts and poor pitch recognition have dogged Mateo throughout his professional career, snuffing much of the excitement over his top-flight speed.

The second-base job was there for the taking, but Mateo could not make the necessary offensive improvements at Triple-A for the A's to start his clock in a season where every win mattered. He can handle either middle-infield position, but was slightly below league-average (96 wRC+) in a repeat tour of the Pacific Coast League, and his 5.1 BB% and 25.6 K% portend significant struggles against MLB pitching. Mateo made significant improvements in some areas, but it's hard to say how much of that was the product of the juiced ball being introduced at Triple-A. His Hard% went up from 22.5% to 36.1% and his ISO jumped from .123 to .214. His batted-ball profile has been excellent in back-to-back seasons, it's just a matter of strike zone awareness and pitch recognition. Fantasy owners are rightfully dreaming on his 80-grade speed, but if 2020 is finally the year, his AVG/OBP figure to be pretty poor.

Mateo’s first season at Triple-A was a disaster, but he is extremely close to the majors and has 80-grade speed, so it would be a mistake to write him off. Underperformance was like a plague on Nashville’s hitters last season, and there are rumors that the Triple-A field staff did some fruitless tinkering with the swings and approaches of some top prospects, Mateo included. There have been makeup concerns with the speedster for a while, and he has struggled with pitch recognition. That said, he hit .296/.357/.521 with a 22.7 K% in 60 games at Double-A in 2017, so it is not like he has been a lost cause in the upper levels. Mateo does not turn 24 until late June, and if something clicks for him at the plate, he could make his MLB debut this summer. His defensive home will likely be second base or center field, and he may start out in a utility role. He could steal 40 bases over a full season even if he is only getting on base at a .300 clip.

It was an eventful year for Mateo. He completely underwhelmed in a repeat trip to High-A, received a promotion to Double-A anyway, raked, got dealt to the A's, and kept raking. From a fantasy perspective, Mateo is the best prospect Oakland received in the Sonny Gray trade. He has legitimate 80-grade speed -- a tool that has allowed Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon to not only be relevant, but coveted in roto leagues, despite posting isolated power figures that look more like fahrenheit readings. Unlike Hamilton and Gordon, Mateo is not a zero in the power department, and could pull 8-to-12 balls out per year at peak. His batting average will likely fluctuate quite a bit based on BABIP, but he could be a .250 or .260 hitter who occasionally flirts with hitting .280. Since the trade, he is back to being developed as a shortstop. He could be ready for a callup in the second half, but the A's have an annoying amount of controllable, albeit uninspiring middle infielders, so it's hard to say when Mateo will be handed an everyday gig.

Mateo had a rocky 2016, including a suspension midseason for conduct detrimental to the team. He started the season at High-A Tampa and apparently was dissatisfied with the lack of a promotion to Double-A Trenton. On the field, Mateo's average was down, his strikeouts were up, and he stole less than half as many bases as he did in 2015. He hit just .254 with 36 steals in 2016, as compared to a .278 average and 82 steals in 2015. In addition, with the acquisition of Gleyber Torres from the Cubs, the Yankees have been trying out new positions for the 21-year-old, including second base and center field. Despite the bumps in the road, Mateo's speed is elite, and he also posted career bests in home runs and RBI in 2016. He should finally get his wish and begin the 2017 campaign at Double-A, though where Mateo will play in the field remains to be seen.

A highly coveted asset at the 2015 trade deadline, Mateo was one of four Yankees prospects GM Brian Cashman deemed untouchable. At just 20 years old and never playing above the High-A level, the shortstop has already made a name for himself in the organization, both with his bat and his legs. The 20-year-old swiped 82 bags last season between Low-A and High-A while being caught just 17 times, and he posted an impressive .321/.374/.452 line once being promoted. Didi Gregorius currently poses a potential roadblock to Mateo at short at the big league level, but the youngster doesn't have any minor league experience at any other position in the field. Mateo is still at least a year away from getting his first taste of the big leagues, if not more, but should continue to move up through the organizational ranks in 2016 and could be worth a look in dynasty formats.