This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The 2024 tennis season has begun and the first Slam of the year is in the books. Congrats to Aryna Sabalenka, the first woman to defend an Australian Open title in 11 years, and kudos to Jannik Sinner, the first Italian man to win a Slam since Adriano Panatta took the French Open all the way back in 1976.
But enough about the past! It is time to look at the 2024 future betting odds on the other Slams. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you may find more favorable odds by looking at other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
Men's Grand Slam Favorites
2024 Men's French Open Favorite Odds
Tough to know what to expect from Rafael Nadal in 2024. The 14-time French Open champ missed the entirety of 2023 post-Australian Open, came back briefly early this season in Brisbane, then suffered another muscle injury and has returned to the tennis equivalent of the IL. Father Time remains undefeated, even in tennis where three all-time greats dominated for the better part of two decades. If Rafa can get healthy by the clay-court season, does anyone doubt he remains a threat despite the fact he will turn 38 in June and has played three matches in a year and change? He won his last French Open in 2022 and has a downright insane 112-4 record at Roland Garros.
It likely makes more sense to back one of the other favorites, Carlos Alcaraz, who is the obvious Spanish heir to the Nadal throne and has already won two Slams. Neither of which was in Paris, however, as he has not advanced past the semis. Still, he led the tour with a 1.31 Dominance Ratio (DR, % of return points won divided by % of service points lost) on clay last year and has an overall 64-14 career record on this surface. Novak Djokovic reigns as the defending champ, his third Roland Garros title. It is his worst surface, which is all relative of course when you have won 24 total Slams and still rank as the world's No. 1 player. For a relative dark horse shot here, maybe Stefanos Tsitsipas? He made the 2021 finals and led the tour with a 68.1% Service Points Won (SPW%) on clay in the last year. If he can get a little more "clutch" and lift up his middling (for clay) 40% Break Point Conversion%, then he could do serious damage here.
2024 Men's Wimbledon Favorite Odds
Alcaraz is the defending Wimbledon champ, but it's tough to fade Djokovic here. The Joker will turn 37 this May and he did look a bit "old" losing to the 22-year-old Sinner in the Australian Open semis. Still, he has won Wimbledon seven times, including as recently as 2022, and has gone 115-19 on grass in his career, all while still ranking tops in the world.
Alcaraz did not have much success in his very early career dabbles on grass, then changed that in a big way in 2023, sweeping all 12 of his matches and winning the Queens Club tune-up to Wimbledon. Which leads to the important point that the grass season is so short and the sample sizes so small that if a top player wins a grass-court tune-up tournament, he will likely see a big bump in his Wimbledon odds.
Tough to fade the two favorites, but perhaps Sinner will step up. He has just a 12-8 career record on grass, but led the tour with a 1.36% DR% on the surface in 2023. Unfortunately, the time to "buy" has passed, as his odds jumped from +1200 ahead of Melbourne to +350 now.
2024 Men's US Open Favorite Odds
Speaking of Sinner, he gets an obvious bump in the US Open, the other hard-court Slam. It was already his best surface, as he has gone 54-10 in the last 52 weeks on it with a 1.27 DR, which ranks second on the tour after Djokovic.
Novak won here in 2023 and Alcaraz in 2022, but Medvedev looms as perhaps the most interesting betting target. The 27-year-old has made six Slam finals, but unfortunately for him, he lost five of them. His one breakthrough did occur here, however, when he beat Djokovic in the 2021 finals. He tops the tour in Return Won Percentage (RPW%) on hard courts over the past year at 41% and is simply solid all around.
Women's Grand Slam Favorites
2024 Women's French Open Favorite Odds
Iga Swiatek remains the overwhelming favorite in the French despite a disappointing third-round exit in the Australian Open. While the current No. 1-ranked player has had her moments on the hard courts, including a 2022 US Open title, she rules on clay. In 2023, Swiatek won 19 of her 21 matches on the soft courts, including a third French Open crown. Her 1.46 DR on clay led the tour by a wide margin, as Ons Jabeur had the second best DR at 1.2. So yes, Swiatek at even money versus the field looks reasonable ahead of the clay-court season.
As for the challengers, Sabalenka saw her odds shorten to +500 from +750 on the heels of her latest title. She did make the semis at Roland Garros in 2023 and won 14 of her 17 clay matches in 2023 but has generally fared better on hard and grass courts. Still, she remains a threat. Elena Rybakina at +1400 and Jabeur at +2000 both had good years on clay in 2023 and perhaps sit as interesting longer shots here. They both bowed out in the second round of the Australian.
2024 Women's Wimbledon Favorite Odds
Marketa Vondrousova took the Wimbledon crown as an unseeded player in 2023, the first WTA player to accomplish that feat. She ranked 42nd heading into Wimbledon and has since popped all the way up to seventh. Oddly, she romped on tennis' most unique surface despite not showing much prowess on it previously, as she only took a total of two matches at the All England Club over four previous tournaments while owning just an 11-11 career mark on grass.
Swiatek's game would not seem to translate typically well for Wimbledon as she has just a 4% career Ace% on grass and has not advanced past the quarters. On the other hand, her return game plays anywhere, so she could put it together for a fortnight. Rybakina won Wimbledon in 2022 but lost in the quarters to Jabeur last season. She boasts a career 10% Ace% and 23-8 overall record on grass and remains a huge threat despite her disappointing early exit Down Under. Sabalenka has a 14-5 career mark at Wimbledon and 27-16 overall on grass but has never improved upon her quarterfinal appearance in 2019. She did spike a 10.5% Ace% on grass in 2023, but will need to improve upon her 42.7% RTW to take the title. Jabeur remains close to a breakthrough here as she has reached the last two finals and sports a 34-14 career mark on grass with a 1.15 DR.
2024 Women's US Open Favorite Odds
Coco Gauff broke through to win her first major as she took the 2023 US Open at the tender age of 19 and has shot up to the third ranked player in the world behind Swiatek and Sabalenka. Coco has played particularly well on hard courts, going 45-10 in the last 52 weeks with an Australian semi and four overall titles. She excelled in the clutch, converting 52.2% of her break-point opportunities, second only to Swiatek. Coco will need a repeat performance to prevail in 2024 as she does not have a particularly big service game.
Swiatek won the US Open in 2022, but fell in the fourth round last season. While clay is Swiatek's best surface, she has excelled on hard courts as well, her relatively early Australian departure notwithstanding. She sports a 46-8 record and 1.46 DR on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, and she leads the WTA in RTW at 50.5% and Service Points Won% (SPW) at 64.9% over that timespan. The fact that she can lead in that latter category despite just a 2.8% Ace% shows she dominates once the volley starts. Interestingly, her points took an average of 48.7 seconds, third highest among the top-100 women. She simply outlasts her opponents.
Contrast that with Sabalenka, who gets similar results on hard courts with more of a power game. She has gone 42-10 on hard courts in the past year with a 1.29 DR, and that comes with a 9.5% Ace%. To win, she needs to avoid double faults, as her 7.5% DF% in the last 52 weeks on hard courts puts her in dangerous spots.
