This article is part of our Sorare series.
Home teams held serve until the final matchday of the first round of the MLS playoffs. Both matches Tuesday resulted in the road team picking up a huge victory. Minnesota outlasted Real Salt Lake on penalties, and the New York Red Bulls shut out Columbus for the first time since Sept. 14 to pick up a shocking 1-0 upset.
There's finally a full weekend slate to play all the remaining MLS players in Challenger. There are some considerable favorites to worry about, as Sporting CP (93.46%), FC Porto (87.72%), Leeds United (84.03%) and Benfica (82.64%) have implied win percentages over 80 percent. Slate-killer PSV faces Ajax, and Feyenoord faces AZ, allowing for a much more manageable slate than last weekend. With the higher seeds on the road, though, the underdogs are in the driver's seat to either force a game three or close out the series (Minnesota & RBNY).
Sorare GW 23 // MLS First Round - Game 2
Here are the implied odds for each matchup.
- Inter Miami 51.55% at Atlanta United 30.30%
- Minnesota United 50.76% vs. Real Salt Lake 28.82%
- NYCFC 46.73% vs. FC Cincinnati 32.89%
- New York Red Bulls 44.84% vs. Columbus Crew 34.84%
- LA Galaxy 44.05% at Colorado Rapids 37.59%
- Houston Dynamo 43.48% vs. Seattle Sounders 32.57%
- Charlotte FC 42.92% vs. Orlando City 35.97%
- LAFC 41.67% at Vancouver Whitecaps 37.45%
Top Goalkeeper Options
- Steve Clark (HOU) $1.59 vs. Seattle
The man with the rat tail has the highest clean sheet odds on the slate, just over 30 percent. Seattle will likely be without leading goalscorer Jordan Morris, who suffered an injury in the last match. Clark averages double-digit AA and should score 50-plus points in a low-scoring gameweek for MLS goalkeepers.
- Kristijan Kahlina (CLT) $5.02 vs. Orlando
Charlotte are in a must-win situation after dropping the first match in Orlando. Kahlina has been one of the best in the league at home and that should continue, even in a tricky matchup against Orlando. The last time Orlando City made the trip to Charlotte, the match ended as a 2-2 draw, with Kahlina posting 37 AA and a 72 SO5 score.
Secondary Options: Patrick Schulte (CLB) $8.72 at RBNY; Dayne St. Clair (MIN) $7.14 vs. RSL; Stefan Frei (SEA) $2.64 at Houston; Matt Freese (NYC) $4.23 vs. Cincinnati; Brad Guzan (ATL) $1.32 vs. Inter Miami; Drake Callender (MIA) $6.61 at Atlanta
Top Defender Options
- Jordi Alba (MIA) $4.55 at Atlanta United
Another week, another Alba recommendation. I know this is chalky, but Alba and Yeimar Gomez (I won't write him up for a change) are the top two options. Alba delivered again in the last match, scoring a goal en route to an 84.62 SO5 score. Although Inter Miami are on the road, they are still the biggest favorite on the slate.
- Pedro Amador (ATL) vs. Inter Miami
Amador is everything that Caleb Wiley wasn't for SO5 scoring. Since joining Atlanta from Moreirense in Portugal, Amador has averaged 59.6 SO5 points with 11.9 AA.
Although the matchup against Inter Miami isn't the best, the assist upside is there, with Inter Miami conceding in eight of their last nine matches.
Secondary Options: Yeimar Gomez (SEA) $3.17 at Houston; Adilson Malanda (CLT) $0.79 vs. Orlando; Maya Yoshida (LAG) $0.79 at Colorado; Micael (HOU) $1.39 vs. Seattle
Top Midfielder Options
- Riqui Puig (LAG) $26.37 at Colorado
Like Alba, Puig is another mainstay in the column. He has an L/15 of 82 and an L/5 of 90. Once again, he's the best midfield player on the slate, as his worst score in his last 13 matches is 60.5 back in Leagues Cup. If you own Puig, he's going in your priority lineup.
- Santiago Rodriguez (NYC) $3.69 vs. Cincinnati
Santi is coming off a horrible performance in Game 1 in Cincinnati. His error led to the only goal in the match and an SO5 score of 9.5. With NYCFC at home and their backs against the wall, I expect Santi to perform on the smaller pitch at Citi Field. In his last three home matches, Rodriguez has three goals and two assists and is averaging an SO5 score of 89.2. This includes a goal and an assist against Cincinnati in the 3-2 victory at the beginning of October.
Secondary Options: Aleksey Miranchuk (ATL) $2.64 vs. Inter Miami; Ryan Gauld (VAN) $4.48 vs. LAFC; Albert Rusnak (SEA) $3.96 at Houston; Mateusz Bogusz (LAFC) $4.68 at Vancouver; Hector Herrera (HOU) $1.85 vs. Seattle
Top Forward Options
- Lionel Messi (MIA) $33.31 at Atlanta United
Playoff Messi is in full swing with his worst score in his last three matches being a 95 (99.5, 95, 100). Like Alba, he's chalk, but he's again the clear-cut top option at forward. Somewhat close behind him is Cucho Hernandez, who had a rare dud in Game 1. He didn't look like the same player without Diego Rossi in the lineup. With Wilfried Nancy expecting Rossi to be available in a must-win match, Cucho should get a much-needed boost.
- Gabriel Pec (LAG) $49.33 at Colorado
Pec only scored 82 SO5 points in the 5-0 Game 1 win. Like Puig, he's squarely in play against an injury-ridden Colorado side, even on the road. Pec is averaging 87 SO5 points in his last six matches with five goals and five assists. Pec is a safe bet to contribute another decisive action Saturday.
Secondary Options: Denis Bouanga (LAFC) $11.45 at Vancouver; Luis Suarez (MIA) $10.41 at Atlanta; Brian White (VAN) $0.78 vs. LAFC; Bongokuhle Hlongwane (MIN) $0.78 vs. RSL; Rafael Navarro (COL) $4.42 vs. LA Galaxy
Favorite Lineup
Courtesy of the SorareData Concept Builder
