DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Monday UEFA Euro 2020 Picks

Written by

Published on June 13, 2021

MATCHES (ET)

FORWARDS

Ferran Torres, ESP v. SWE ($8,900): It's Robert Lewandowski ($12,000) or bust for Monday's slate because the other forwards are iffy at best. The problem is that you basically need at least one goal from Lewandowski for him to be worth the $12,000 and, unlike Memphis Depay on Sunday, he doesn't take set pieces. Lewandowski is usually priced this way for Bundesliga slates, but Poland are not Bayern Munich. I'd rather bet on the team with the highest implied goal total (Spain) and instead of going to a goal-dependent forward, Torres provides more in open play and could also steal a set piece or two. In their last friendly against Portugal, Torres had four shots and a couple crosses in 90 minutes, and given the lack of attacking wingers, he should be in play for a full 90 in the opener. You could go with Gerard Moreno ($10,600) or Alvaro Morata ($9,100) in GPPs, but they could sub in for each other, so it'll be hard to use either in cash games. If you want to spend at forward in cash, Torres may be the only reasonable option unless you go down to someone like Emil Forsberg ($7,000) on the other side of the pitch.

Karol Swiderski, POL v. SVK ($4,800): Swiderski has about a 50 percent chance to start, and if he does he'll probably be subbed off,

MATCHES (ET)

FORWARDS

Karol Swiderski, POL v. SVK ($4,800): Swiderski has about a 50 percent chance to start, and if he does he'll probably be subbed off, but he could be a low-priced forward on a favorite. He scored off the bench in the most recent friendly and went 67 minutes against Russia before that. Outside of Lewandowski, none of the Polish forwards separates themselves despite Jakub Swierczok ($7,100) and Dawid Kownacki ($5,900) both costing significantly more than Swiderski. You may only get two or three points from Swiderski, but he at least has upside as a forward on a favorite. There isn't much else to like on this slate unless you look at the match with the lowest implied goal total, as Patrik Schick ($6,400) seems like the play over the more expensive Che Adams ($7,900). None of the central forwards are expected to have much of a floor and it's not like one side will get a ton more chances than the other, so it kind of makes sense to spend down and hope for the best or just correlate your forwards with the other players in your roster.

MIDFIELDERS

Piotr Zielinski, POL v. SVK ($6,500): Zielinski could end up being more popular than Lewandowski because there's a chance he has an exclusive role on set pieces and, similar to David Alaba on Sunday, he's inexplicably cheap. Zielinski plays in a similar position for Poland as he does for his club team, Napoli, where he had eight goals and 10 assists this past season. If Poland score, either Lewandowski or Zielinski will be involved and you can get the latter for much cheaper. Again, given the other options on this slate, there aren't a ton of situations in which you won't want Zielinski. Paying up for the Spain guys makes little sense even though Pablo Sarabia ($8,600) will take some sets if he starts. Dani Olmo ($7,600) is intriguing in a forward role, but he won't go a full 90 and Marcos Llorente ($7,200) is expensive considering he plays right-back for Spain. Tomas Soucek ($6,500) is in the same range as Zielinski, yet similar to how he plays at West Ham, you're banking on a random goal for when he's the lone guy sitting on the far side of the net.

Jakub Jankto, CZE v. SCO ($6,200): There's a big question surrounding Marek Hamsik's ($6,400) fitness, but if he starts, he's usually on the ball a ton and taking set pieces. If he doesn't start, that would make Robert Mak ($6,800) a better play because he would in turn take the majority of sets for Slovakia. Since that situation won't be settled until the second match of the day, I'd rather go with a set-piece taker for Czech Republic in what should be an even matchup. Jankto has a tad better floor than Vladimir Darida ($6,300), mainly because he plays on the wing, but they are expected to split sets with each other. There isn't much that separates them, hence the price, but Jankto should have a higher floor based on position and that's kind of what you're betting on in their first game of the tournament.

Sebastian Larsson, SWE v. ESP ($4,500): Spain have had a weird couple weeks because of COVID-19, but the odds don't really show that, especially since the entire team received the vaccine less than a week ago. Sweden also lost some guys to positive COVID tests, but they didn't get the vaccine recently. Forsberg is the logical play for the Swedes, but Larsson is still a key part of the team and will steal set pieces even if his price doesn't show that. There's also a slight chance Larsson starts in an outside role, which could lead to an even better floor. There's a chance Spain score a couple goals and Larsson is subbed off early, but there's also a chance it's an even match and Larsson hits a floor close to 10 points. If you'd rather go value on a favorite, Kamil Jozwiak ($4,300) and Jakub Moder ($4,200) could both start, while Callum McGregor ($3,300) and Mateusz Klich ($3,200) are cheaper despite having similar fantasy value.

DEFENDERS

Andrew Robertson, SCO v. CZE ($5,800): Robertson should be the most popular defender because in addition to playing as a wing-back, he will also have at least a split role on set pieces, whereas Kieran Tierney ($5,500) won't take set pieces and often plays as a center-back in a back three. Even if it's a four-man back line, Tierney would be left-back and Robertson would be the left midfielder. You could go against Robertson, but anything else would have to be a correlation play because there's no reason to spend nearly the same amount. For me, I'm starting with Robertson and going from there.

Bartosz Bereszynski, POL v. SVK ($4,500): Most favored full-backs are usually at least $5,000, so the price of Polish duo of Maciej Rybus ($4,700) and Bereszynski doesn't feel right, especially when Jordi Alba is $6,300. Bereszynski is a fine right-back for Sampdoria and while he doesn't present as much upside as others, he makes sense from a cash perspective if you need to save money. The Polish center-backs -- Jan Bednarek ($2,900) and Kamil Glik ($2,900) -- are also fairly cheap despite having similar odds to Spain to get a clean sheet. Tomas Hubocan ($3,200) could be the cheapest starting full-back, and he's at an odd discount compared to teammate Peter Pekarik ($4,300).

GOALKEEPER

Robin Olsen, SWE v. ESP ($3,800): Sweden are the biggest underdog Monday, but I think Olsen is worth taking a shot on. There's a chance Spain come out swinging and show no ill-effects, but it could also be a defensive match and neither team gets a breakthrough. Some of this depends on what lineup Spain use because some of the projected starters may not be ready to play. If you don't want risk, I'd take either Tomas Vaclik ($4,800) or David Marshall ($4,600), whoever complements your squad the best. And if you're fading Lewandowski, Martin Dubravka ($4,000) is an easy decision.