YellaWood 500 Preview: The Wild Card of the Chase

This weekend the luck factor comes into play like no other race in the 10 events that makeup the Chase for the NASCAR Cup. The Cup Series comes to Talladega Superspeedway for the YellaWood 500 and for the wild pack racing action that Talladega provides. This is the perfect event to throw in with the short tracks, flat tracks, and intermediate ovals that make up the final 10 races in the Chase for the Cup championship. Considering that we've spent the last few weeks racing on intermediate and smaller ovals with few cautions and few crashes, we're in for some major changes as the "big one" comes back into play. The multi-car, multi-line drafts and side-by-side racing at near 200 mph is nothing short of chaotic. Five hundred miles of racing in these tight conditions almost always leads to disaster, and that's where the luck factor comes into play this weekend. Considering that this weekend's race is the second in the Round of 12 of the Chase, the stakes will be even higher than usual. 

A mystery driver could likely be in the spotlight this Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. Thanks mostly to the wild action and outcomes that superspeedway racing generates. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. took the checkers in the Daytona 500 and Kyle Busch took the win in the spring Talladega event. Chris Buescher was the winner just a few weeks ago in the late summer installment at Daytona. These huge oval races seem more a wild card than ever this season. We could see another surprise or first-time superspeedway winner again this weekend. The two biggest threats to the mystery, underdog driver's hopes for a Talladega victory this weekend would be Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch. Both are two-time winners at this 2.66-mile oval and both have performed very well the superspeedway tracks this season. The stakes will be high and so will the nerves, as the consequences of this Chase format is more pressure than ever at this point in the season. When the green flag drops the mayhem will ensue and championship hopes will be made or dashed after 500 miles of racing at 'Dega.

Talladega Superspeedway is unlike any of the other tracks in the Chase, but history still plays a big part. The drivers that tend to run up front and win at this large oval are usually the same drivers each and every time we visit Talladega. As you'll see in the table below, some of the drivers who are vying for the championship are also very proficient at Talladega Superspeedway. Here are the loop stats for the last 37 races at the famous Alabama oval.

The loop stats from Talladega look a bit odd when compared to other tracks in the series.  Right away we notice a lack of drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick in the Top 10 of this list. Luck plays a large part in winning Talladega. Sometimes it's all in the timing and when to make your move at this oval. The second thing we notice is the lower overall driver ratings. Wrecks play a big part in Talladega racing, and everyone eventually gets caught up in a big one, putting a dent in their average statistical performance. In this season's earlier race at Talladega in April we saw Kyle Busch surge late to get around Bubba Wallace on the last lap and grab the impressive victory in overtime. His shootout with multiple drivers was set up thanks to three cautions and restarts in the last 12 laps. This late turn of events gave us a dramatic finish, and it underscores the unpredictability of Talladega races. Busch was running third-place entering turn 2 and Wallace would get turned and wrecked from behind, bring out the final caution of the day and crowning Busch the winner as he sailed past. Yes, indeed, anything can happen at Talladega. The 57 lead changes were a five-race high mark for Talladega, and more reminiscent of the events that were held at the track in 2020. Hopefully, we'll see even more passing among the front this weekend, and the ability for cars to work together to run down a faster leader. 

Like most Talladega races, we should see some big multi-car crashes and some late cautions as the urgency gets the best of the drivers in the closing laps. With the big wrecks and caution flags as a result of the pack racing, we should see some of the familiar "sand-bagging" drivers who hang out in the back of the field. Although stage racing has gone a long way towards tempering this possibility, the driver who keeps a low profile most of the race may ultimately be the one to push to the front in the closing laps and make for a thrilling victory. One thing is for certain, a spot in the next round of the Chase is up for grabs and this race helps to equalize the odds for some of the smaller teams. Some drivers will move on to the Charlotte Roval with their championship hopes intact, while others will load the wrecked remains of their race cars onto the hauler and start to think about next season. Here are the drivers who you need to focus on for fantasy racing glory at Talladega Superspeedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – The 2023 season has had its ups-and-downs for the No. 12 Ford team, but Blaney has been doing all he can to advance deep into the playoffs. He has struggled throughout the Chase, but this is the one-hit wonder race that could propel Blaney into the next round of the playoffs. The superspeedway ovals have been a real niche of this driver and team the last few seasons. Blaney is a two-time Talladega winner and he's finished runner-up in the last two Talladega events. In addition, he led 52 laps combined this season between Daytona and Talladega with two Top-10 finishes in those three events. Blaney led 47 laps at Talladega earlier this season and finished an impressive second-place in the GEICO 500. He'll be in the mix for the win and automatic berth to the next round of the Chase Sunday afternoon at Talladega.     

Chase Elliott – Despite not racing for the championship, Elliott will be a factor in the outcome this weekend in Alabama. Talladega Superspeedway is a good track for him to grab a win and help prepare for next season. Elliott is a two-time Talladega winner and he's led over 200 laps in 15 starts at the huge oval. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been very strong on these superspeedway tracks the last couple seasons. Elliott grabbed a win in this event one year ago and he's collected four Top-10 finishes in his last seven superspeedway starts. The driver of the No. 9 Chevy led 2 laps and battle for the win before finishing fourth-place at Daytona a few weeks ago. Elliott is often racing among the lead pack in the closing laps in these high-risk superspeedway races. 

Kyle Busch – Busch is in perilous position in the playoff standings entering the weekend. However, there's ample reason to believe a great performance could be in order this Sunday at Talladega. A win in the YellaWood 500 would propel him into the Round of 8 in the Chase and he knows this all too well. Busch won the race earlier this season (GEICO 500) at Talladega and he has been strong in these superspeedway events the last two seasons. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has led 55 combined laps, grabbed one win and five Top-10 finishes in the last seven races between Daytona and Talladega. The average finish across the span is an impressive 9.4 and counter to his historical record in this style of racing.     

Chris Buescher – Our most recent superspeedway winner (Daytona August) makes the contenders list for the YellaWood 500. Buescher led just 2 laps, but held off teammate, Brad Keselowski, to capture the win in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The RFK veteran has also notched an impressive string of Top-5 finishes in all the superspeedway events thus far this season. Buescher is the only driver in the field to accomplish that feat this season. In a lot of ways, the driver of the No. 17 Ford has been the most consistent performer in the Cup Series thus far this season in this style of racing. It's almost a certainty that we'll see Buescher battling among the leaders in the final laps of Sunday's YellaWood 500.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The six-time Talladega winner has been pretty sharp in 2023 on the large ovals. He's led 50 combined laps and grabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes in the three events thus far. Keselowski's last of six Talladega wins came in 2021 and he also finished runner-up at the track that same season. With a career 48-percent Top-10 rate at the Alabama speedway, that's a strong statistic of consistency over a lot of years of racing. He finished fifth-place there in April of this year in the GEICO 500. Talladega Superspeedway was not only the sight of Keselowski's first Cup Series win, but it's been a track of tremendous success over the years. 

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a three-time Talladega winner, and he's led 420 career laps at Talladega Superspeedway. While his luck at this track has been shaky the last season or two, you cannot deny the 11 Top-10 finishes he's collected here and all the racing up front that led to those three victories. While he may be a longer shot for victory lane this Sunday, the chance of a non-playoff impacting Top 10 is there. The driver of the No. 22 Ford grabbed an impressive runner-up finish in the season-opening Daytona 500 and he was a brilliant fifth-place finisher at Daytona just a few weeks ago. He's led laps and generally qualified well this season for these superspeedway races. Despite his playoff elimination, Logano should be a face among the Top 10 Sunday afternoon.

William Byron – Byron has definitely flipped the switch "on" since the playoffs began. The young driver is coming off the big win this past weekend at Fort Worth and has three Top 10's in the four playoff races thus far. Byron is in great position for a deep drive into the Chase playoffs, assuming he doesn't find trouble Sunday at Talladega. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been a bit of a tough-luck performer on the superspeedways for his career, but this season has been different. Byron crashed out of the season-opening Daytona 500, but he has rebounded nicely since with Top-10 finishes in the spring Talladega race and Daytona race a few weeks ago. He has a pretty high ceiling for Sunday's YellaWood 500.       

Bubba Wallace – Wallace was the winner of this event in 2021 and while his consistency has been a bit better at Daytona, the 23XI Racing driver has proven capable and dangerous at the sister oval in Alabama. In the race earlier this season at Talladega, he led a whopping 35 laps and was poised to possibly win the GEICO 500, but crashed out on the last lap jockey for the lead. Wallace's last seven superspeedway races have netted a combined 69 laps led and a good amount of speed. He qualified fourth on the grid at Daytona a few weeks ago, but would get mixed out of the leaders late and finish a respectable 12th. Wallace has good potential Sunday at Talladega with playoff advancement on the line.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Talladega & solid upside

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been razor sharp this season on the big ovals. Bowman has one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in the three races between Daytona and Talladega. The average finish is coming in at a strong 8.0 across the three-race span. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet doesn't have great career numbers at Talladega Superspeedway with just a 27-percent Top-10 rate. However, his recent power surge this season on the superspeedway ovals is what we feel warrants fantasy consideration this weekend. Bowman's last outing at Daytona a few weeks ago netted a strong sixth-place finish in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Christopher Bell – Bell is another driver that has experienced some success this season on the big tracks. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster nabbed a third-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500 along with 20 laps led in that event. Bell went to Talladega in the spring and grabbed a respectable eighth-place finish in the GEICO 500. He would be a little less impressive recently at Daytona with a 16th-place finish in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 a few weeks ago. Bell has captured two of the last three Talladega Superspeedway pole positions and he's finished inside the Top 10 in two of his last four events at the Alabama track. We believe the driver of the No. 20 is pointed towards success in Sunday's YellaWood 500.

Ross Chastain – While his Talladega success has only been very recent, it has been very impressive. Chastain won here in the spring of 2022, and he cracked the Top 5 in this event one year ago. The Trackhouse Racing veteran's last three Talladega starts have netted 40 laps led and a sharp 9.3 average finish across the span. Chastain has also had success at the similar Daytona oval. He led 6 laps and grabbed a steady ninth-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500. While Chastain's history and success in superspeedway racing isn't long and detailed, his recent success is hard to dismiss. With playoff advancement hanging in the balance, this driver and team have a history of ratcheting things up a notch.    

Aric Almirola – Almirola has always possessed the gift of superspeedway racing. The one-time Daytona and one-time Talladega winner grabbed a strong third-place finish at Daytona a few weeks ago and reminded everyone of his abilities in this style of racing. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has had good speed this season on these big ovals and his qualifying spots of fourth-, second- and second-place in the three events to date prove that fact. Almirola has led a combined 30 laps between Daytona and Talladega but the finishes have been spotty until the recent Daytona race. The driver of the No. 10 Ford has qualified well and led a combined 47 laps in his last two Talladega starts, and has the potential to over perform his typical level of performance this weekend.

Daniel Suarez – With three Top-10 finishes in his last four superspeedway starts, Suarez has worked himself into sneaky good fantasy racing consideration. Albeit he wasn't as lucky most recently at Daytona (20th-place) he still avoided the accidents in that race and finished on the lead lap. Suarez has just three Top-10 finishes in 13-career starts at Talladega Superspeedway, but the really good news is that two of those have come in the last three events at the huge Alabama oval. The Trackhouse Racing veteran finished eighth-place in this event one year ago and he finished ninth-place there earlier this season. That's a very good track record and very recent. Suarez brings that experience and potential into Sunday's YellaWood 500.

Chase Briscoe – The Stewart Haas Racing youngster was quite impressive a few weeks ago in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona. Briscoe won the pole position and led a race-high 67 laps. However, he would get rolled up in a late-race crash and fail to finish at Daytona. Still, the speed and racing up front was undeniable and impressive. Briscoe was also impressive in the spring at Talladega. He qualified fourth on the starting grid and finished fourth in the GEICO 500. That is one of two Top-10 finishes in his last two Talladega starts. Briscoe now has a 40-percent Top-10 rate at this track in his brief Cup Series career and a respectable 15.2 average finish across five starts.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is still in the thick of the championship battle, and that will be a big motivator this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at the Alabama oval and has led well over 400 laps here. Hamlin cracks the Top 10 at Talladega at a decent 43-percent rate which is pretty good for this high-stakes form of racing. However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota hasn't been one of the better performers on the superspeedways in the Next-Gen car, so that's why we've bumped Hamlin down to the slow down list this weekend. Hamlin has just one Top-10 finish in his last seven superspeedway starts (14-percent) and his finishes just this season on the big Daytona and Talladega ovals is 17th-, 17th- and 26th-place with a noticeable lack of laps led.

Austin Cindric – The 2021 Daytona 500 winner has seen a complete reversal of his fortunes in superspeedway racing this season. After the big numbers the young Penske Racing driver posted the previous year, Cindric has only managed 23rd-, 26th- and 37th-place finishes this season on the big oval circuit. He has lacked the speed to lead laps and his qualifying efforts have been subpar at best. Cindric has never led a lap in three starts at Talladega Superspeedway and has just one Top 10 in those three starts (33-percent). With his major lack of performance in this style of racing in 2023, we can't recommend a fantasy racing start for the No. 2 Ford team this weekend in the YellaWood 500.    

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has typically been in our slow down list each time we visit Talladega due to a very uneven record of consistency at this track. He's thick in the middle of the playoff battle, but his lack of finishing consistency here is troubling. In 37-career starts at Talladega Superspeedway, Truex has only managed nine Top-10 finishes (24-percent) and an inflated 21.4 average finish. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has posted just one Top 10 in his last 15 Talladega starts. Despite leading 36 laps this season between Daytona and Talladega, Truex has managed only one Top 15 in those three starts. Clearly, he doesn't possess the luck side of the equation in this style of racing.

Tyler Reddick – Despite his accomplishments this season on road circuits, short and intermediate ovals, Reddick has had his struggles on the big superspeedway tracks. The last two seasons he's only managed one Top-10 finish in seven starts and a very troubling 26.3 average finish. Crashes and mechanical problems have been part of the problem, but also just pure lack of speed and the inability to push to the front. In seven career starts at Talladega, Reddick has only managed two Top 10's (29-percent) and boasts an average finish of 22.3. We would like to believe that playoff implications would spur him to better results this weekend, but this style of racing is clearly one of Reddick's few weaknesses.