Xfinity 500 Preview: NASCAR's Shortest Track

This week we visit the circuit's shortest track to bring to an end the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup.  The NASCAR Cup Series visits Martinsville Speedway, which is the circuit's shortest track, nestled in the foothills of southern Virginia.  After visiting superspeedways and intermediate ovals for most of the Chase, we swing to the other extreme for this week's Xfinity 500. With the big shift in racing style, the drivers had better be prepared for the surprises that the bullring at Martinsville will provide. 

Martinsville Speedway is best described as a "paperclip" shaped track for its twin 800 foot straight-aways capped with hair-pin corners banked at a modest 12 degrees.  Racing at Martinsville requires mental toughness, physical stamina, and razor sharp concentration, and that doesn't even include the durability of your equipment which takes a brutal pounding on this abusive small oval.  So, survival will be the name of the game this weekend as the Chase drivers take to the short track in southern Virginia.  Martinsville Speedway demands the ultimate performance from both the driver and the car, so it is fitting that this bullring is one of the pivotal races that crowns NASCAR's champion.  Some of the top contenders for this season's championship are excellent short track drivers, so we should see some real fireworks at the front of the pack this Sunday afternoon.  For those playoff drivers still vying for a spot in the Championship Round of the Chase, the stakes will be very high in this 500-lap brawl.  Among those are the teams of Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr.  All four have been improving dramatically at the Virginia short track in recent seasons.  Truex, Logano and Keselowski have combined to win five of the last six Martinsville races.  So this group of championship hopeful drivers are definitely in the right place at the right time this weekend to possibly secure a championship round-advancing win.

Let's take a quick look at the recent history of Martinsville Speedway.  We have a select group of drivers that rise above the field on short tracks, and we expect to see them running up front on Sunday.  As the loop stats will illustrate, there's a group of the usual suspects we expect to dominate short track racing at the top.  Among these are Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch.  This group of drivers have combined to win 13 races at this small oval.  So these guys will be among the contenders to win the Xfinity 500.  In the table below are the loop stats for the last 33 races at Martinsville Speedway.

A lot has happened since the last race at Martinsville Speedway in April of this year.  Kyle Larson has gotten on a roll a couple times and won three-straight races in May/June and now in October.  Bubba Wallace pulled his surprising, upset victory at Talladega earlier this month.  Aric Almirola nabbed an equally surprising win at New Hampshire back in July.  Chase Elliott orchestrated a couple road course wins during the Summer.  Kevin Harvick was shockingly eliminated from the Chase field after the Round of 12 at the Charlotte Roval.  A.J. Allmendinger captured his second-career Cup Series victory at the Indianapolis GP circuit in August.  Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano are trying desperately to stay alive in terms of the championship, so they'll be racing for the win this Sunday at Martinsville to get the ticket to Phoenix.  All-in-all it has been a wild season of NASCAR racing since the last time we visited the historic Virginia short track.

If this week's race plays out like the earlier installment at Martinsville, we should be in for some similar action.  Joe Gibbs Racing star, Denny Hamlin, would dominate almost the entirety of the race and lead 276 laps.  However, it would be Martin Truex Jr. who would rise late and capture his third win in the last four events at the Martinsville short track.  His move during the final green-flag run to the finish would be the final of 18 lead changes on the evening.  There's good reason to believe we could see a similar scenario develop in Sunday's Xfinity 500.  The recent short track race at Bristol Motor Speedway produced a similar 23 lead changes and saw a similar three-driver dominance of that short track event.  Kyle Larson won that Bristol race, so the star driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet will bear some close scrutiny at Martinsville Speedway.  We'll examine the short track specialists who thrive on small ovals like Martinsville, and give you the tips that will help you win your fantasy league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The pressure to advance into the Championship Round of the Chase will definitely be a motivator for this driver and team.  Truex is the winner of three of the last four races at this historic short track.  That's a big plus for the No. 19 Toyota team. His Martinsville resume has improved dramatically since 2015.  Truex has led 1,007 laps at Martinsville Speedway and they've all come since the 2015 season.  The veteran driver has three wins and six Top-5 finishes in his last eight starts at the Virginia bullring.  Truex has dominated three of the last four Martinsville races, and the team has this oval pegged.  A win here is Truex's only hope of keeping his championship aspirations alive. 

Chase Elliott – Now that we're racing for all the marbles the best is coming out of young Elliott and the No. 9 team.  He's claimed two runner-up finishes in the last five races, including his second-place finish this past Sunday at Kansas.  Elliott appears focused like a laser beam on the prize.  Defending his championship of one year ago is beginning to push him to the season-finale.  Elliott has one win and two runner-up finishes in his last five Martinsville starts.  Earlier this year he started fifth on the grid and finished second to Martin Truex Jr. in the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.  His level of performance at this challenging short track has been elevated in the past couple seasons.  The young Hendrick Motorsports star will be hungry and eager to win Sunday's Xfinity 500. 

Denny Hamlin – Coming to Martinsville, Hamlin's point standing has him poised to make Phoenix even without a Martinsville victory.  However, he'd love to visit victory lane here again and punch his ticket automatically to the finale.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has five-career wins at Martinsville Speedway, and he's led over 1,800-career laps at the half-mile oval.  A win here would lock him into the championship round at Phoenix in a couple weeks.  The No. 11 Toyota team has won here as recently as the 2015 season and his career 52-percent Top-5 rate at Martinsville speaks volumes.  Hamlin led a dominating 276 laps and finished third-place here in April of this year.  He is visiting one of his favorite short tracks at a very crucial time during the playoffs.

Kyle Larson – Larson has never won at the Martinsville short track, but he'd never won at Kansas Speedway either.  He took care of that loose end last Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400.  Everything the Hendrick Motorsports star touches right now seems to turn to gold.  While he's locked into the Championship Round of the Chase and doesn't have quite the motivation of the other contenders this week, we still have to respect the No. 5 Chevrolet team's excellence right now.  Larson rides a three-race win streak into Virginia this week.  His fifth-place performance at Martinsville in April lacked the shine that some other drivers displayed that evening, but it was still a strong performance.  Larson's not the top contender this week, but he should not be underestimated. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski doesn't have the resume that some other NASCAR Cup drivers have at this short track, but he's been building it rapidly the past few seasons.  He has two victories and nine Top-5 finishes in the last 11 starts at Martinsville Speedway.  Keselowski has been in contention for the win here recently with a pair of third-place efforts since 2019.  The Penske Racing star sports a strong 48-percent career Top-5 rate at the Martinsville short track and has led close to 900 laps for his career at the facility.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford faces possible elimination from the Chase without getting a win Sunday, but his desire to finish well and perform with the best in the series this weekend is at a high point.  We look for Keselowski to race with the leaders this weekend and contend for the win in the Xfinity 500.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star comes to Martinsville in a precarious position in the Chase for the Cup.  He faces elimination without some major things happening.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been fast in recent Martinsville Speedway outings.  He has one win and six Top 10's in his last seven starts at this facility.  Logano led 6 laps and finished sixth in April's Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.  That effort has boosted his career Top-10 rate at this short track to a very respectable 52-percent.  Logano has been one of the best performing short track drivers of 2021 with five Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes to this point for a miniscule 5.1 average finish.  He'll be a strong fantasy racing choice in Sunday's 500-lap battle.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is another Penske Racing driver racing to keep his championship hopes alive.  He's grabbed four Top-5 finishes in his last five starts at Martinsville Speedway.  That includes Blaney's impressive, pair of runner-up finishes he registered at the track last season.  Short tracks have been a real asset for the No. 12 Ford team this year.  Blaney has two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes this season and that includes his strong fourth-place finish at Bristol during the playoffs.  His Martinsville Top-10 rate checks in at a steady 55-percent and his career average finish at the Virginia bullring is now an impressive 10.7, which ranks among the best drivers in the series.  Blaney will have the motivation to succeed and advance to Phoenix at work as well.    

Kevin Harvick – It's been a puzzling season for the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team, but Harvick seems to have righted the ship in these final races of 2021.  While Harvick has been anything but dominant at this oval, he still sports a 50-percent career Top-10 rate at Martinsville Speedway, and that's well above the norm.  Harvick has one-career victory and 20 Top-10 finishes at the paperclip in Virginia.  While this season has been a winless campaign to this point for the Stewart Haas Racing star, Harvick has been consistent on the short tracks.  He owns six Top 10's in the seven races to-date (86-percent), and most recently finished runner-up at the Bristol short track in mid-September.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

William Byron – Byron was eliminated from the Chase in earlier rounds, but he's racing strong down the stretch in order to tune up for the 2022 campaign.  After an early-Fall swoon he's rebounded with strong second- and sixth-place finishes the last two races.  Three of his last four Martinsville Speedway starts have netted Top-10 finishes.  That's a big contrast from his earlier career numbers at this tough oval.  Byron has been a 71-percent Top-10 finisher on the short tracks this season, so that improvement has been noticeable over his earlier starts on the NASCAR bullrings.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet finished a brilliant third at the Bristol short track in mid-September, and we expect him to stay hot in the Xfinity 500. 

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been one of the hottest drivers in the series the last month.  Bell rides a four-race Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota is ending the 2021 season on a very strong note and serving notice to the field for next season.  Bell has been consistent on the short tracks this season.  His three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes on the bullring circuit rank among the elite in the Cup Series.  That average finish checks in at a very respectable 10.7.  Bell has just three starts in NASCAR's top division at the Martinsville oval.  However, his last start in April of this year was his best to-date.  Bell led 9 laps and raced from 23rd on the grid to a strong seventh-place finish in the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.   

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has been somewhat inconsistent this season but there's ample evidence this could be a good weekend for Bowman.  He has two short track victories in 2021 (Richmond and Dover) and his four Top-10 finishes check in at a respectable 57-percent rate on the bullrings.  Martinsville Speedway has been a track of spotty performance for Bowman.  However, more recent outings have been dramatically improved.  He grabbed pair of sixth-place finishes at Martinsville Speedway last season and proved he could navigate this challenging track.  Bowman is coming off a respectable 11th-place finish at Kansas this past Sunday, so morale in the No. 48 team is high. 

Kurt Busch – Busch seems to be salvaging his season despite an early elimination from the playoffs.  He's a two-time winner at this oval and he rides a good streak of consistency recently into this weekend.  Despite a lowly 21-percent career Top-10 rate at this oval, Busch has been zeroed-in during recent visits to the Virginia short track.  Four of his last six starts at Martinsville Speedway have netted Top-10 finishes.  That streak includes his strong fifth-place finish in this event one year ago.  Busch is coming off a strong fourth-place finish at Kansas Speedway last weekend, and will ride that good momentum into Sunday's Xfinity 500.       

Matt DiBenedetto – The Wood Brothers Racing veteran has been steady on the short tracks in 2021.  DiBenedetto has two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes on the bullring circuit for a respectable 14.0 average finish.  His most recent look at a short track yielded an impressive 10th-place result at the Bristol short track in mid-September.  DiBenedetto doesn't have the career-long Martinsville numbers we'd like to see.  However, recent outings have been really good.  The journeyman driver has finishes of seventh-, 10th- and 12th-place in this last three Martinsville Speedway starts.  The average finish across that span is a surprising 9.7.  He should be dialed-into the Top 15 for Sunday's 500-lap short track battle.     

Tyler Reddick – While Reddick's intermediate and larger oval performance has been more impressive, his short track performance has not been bad.  The Richard Childress Racing youngster has two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes on the short track circuit this season.  The average finish checks in at an acceptable 15.0.  He won't be a world beater this weekend, but Reddick should justify fantasy racing usage in deeper leagues and weekly lineup leagues.  With just three-career Cup Series starts at Martinsville Speedway, we don't have a large sample size, but his last effort at the track is of note.  Reddick peddled to a surprising eighth-place finish at the track in April of this year.    

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – The championship hangs by a thread for Busch.  He's gone cold at the wrong time of the season.  After a disappointing Kansas finish, he sits on the bubble, just 1-point ahead of Ryan Blaney for the final championship spot in the four drivers for Phoenix.  The pressure will seem like a concrete cinder block attached to his helmet this weekend.  In all honesty, short track racing has not been his best in 2021.  With just three Top 10's and a 19.6 average finish on these ovals this season, he's been shaky at best.  Busch's recent 21st-place effort at Bristol is a good illustration.  He was razor sharp at this oval from 2015 to 2019, but more recent efforts have made the No. 18 Toyota team look very human.  We believe Busch is a top tier driver to avoid this weekend.

Aric Almirola – Martinsville Speedway has not been the Stewart Haas Racing veteran's best short track over the years.  With only five Top-10 finishes in 25 starts, he's checking in at a lowly 20-percent rate.  Recent visits to the facility have been very tough for the driver of the No. 10 Ford. Almirola has three finishes outside the Top 20 vs. one Top 10 in his last four visits.  That mirrors his short track performance this season.  Almirola has two Top 10's in seven starts in 2021 for a 29-percent Top-10 rate.  With an average finish of 21.4 at the track, there are better fantasy racing options than Almirola this weekend.

Austin Dillon – Dillon has had a lot of fantasy racing utility this season, but it's mainly been on the intermediate and larger ovals.  Short tracks have not been bad, but Martinsville Speedway has been a tough oval in recent seasons for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet.  Dillon's last four starts at this short track have netted just one Top-15 finish vs. three finishes of 22nd or worse.  With a career 13-percent Top-10 rate and 19.5 average finish at Martinsville Speedway, it's best to pass on Dillon in weekly lineup and salary cap based leagues in the Xfinity 500.  

Michael McDowell – Short tracks have been a real bear for the veteran driver of the No. 34 Ford in 2021.  This season's Daytona 500 winner has scuffled to no Top-10 finishes on these small tracks this season for an average finish around 26.1.  Martinsville Speedway has been equally disappointing for the Front Row Motorsports driver over his career.  With just one Top 15 and many finishes outside the Top 25, McDowell sports a 29.8 average finish at Martinsville Speedway.  In April he peddled to a 31st-place finish after a crash and DNF.  McDowell is a shaky fantasy racing play in this ninth race of the Chase playoffs.