Weekly Preview: Ambetter 301 - Short Track Change Up

We make a return this week to the short track circuit after a long stretch of intermediate ovals and road courses. NASCAR's top division heads to the one-mile, flat oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Ambetter 301 this Sunday afternoon. The bull ring at Loudon, New Hampshire is a true oval with variable banking of two to seven degrees in all turns and one degree on both straightaways. It's a flat track in the purest sense. The handling of the race car is very important at this oval. How the car turns, how it exits the corners and how it holds the turns will dictate the driver's ability to pass or be passed at NHMS. Drivers' and crew chiefs' patience is tested to the max at this challenging short track. If adjustments can be made and an ill-handling car can be corrected over the course of a run, that driver and crew chief will reap the rewards of their persistence and patience. A lack of patience will usually end up in a wreck at this short track, as this typically leads to over-driving the car and pushing the speed/handling envelope a bit too far. The aerodynamic factor of an intermediate track showed up last weekend in Atlanta, and we could see a lack of patience manifest itself this weekend at Loudon. This oval is where the NASCAR adage "race the track, not the competition" was born. New Hampshire Motor Speedway embodies that statement to the highest degree.

This event is the only time we race at the Magic Mile this season after NASCAR scheduling took away one of the track's two annual dates in 2018. For tips on what we might expect this weekend, look no further than the earlier races at Martinsville and Phoenix. Both are flat tracks, and while Martinsville is smaller, the handling, setup and racing are quite similar to Loudon. Phoenix has more speed than NHMS, but the flat track in Arizona boasts some similar characteristics to the oval in New England. While keeping these races in mind, it will still be helpful to take a look back at the recent historical statistics at the Loudon oval. The loop stats shown below cover the last 17 years or 30 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has turned into a track of streaks the last few seasons. Once a manufacturer gets this place figured out, the teams tend to pile up the wins until the competition catches up and unseats them. In 2012 and 2013, Toyota reeled off three straight victories at the Magic Mile. Brad Keselowski's victory in the summer of 2014 broke the Toyota string and set Ford up to win the next two events at the one-mile oval. More recently, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch swept the Magic Mile in the 2017 season and returned Toyota to dominance at the historic short track. That would last until 2018 when Kevin Harvick won back-to-back Loudon victories for Ford in 2018-19. Brad Keselowski and Aric Almirola would then build on that Ford streak by winning the last two New Hampshire races. Considering that Ford drivers have taken the last four victories at Loudon, that may help this struggling brand as they've found it difficult to visit victory lane in 2022. Ford drivers have only scratched the win column four times in 19 events this season.

In this event one year ago, we witnessed Almirola rise late and lead the final 20 laps while fending off Christopher Bell to capture the win. It was a surprising performance for the veteran Stewart Haas Racing driver to claim his first-ever win at the New England short track. There were several suitors for the win that afternoon in Loudon, and Kevin Harvick would lead a race-high 66 laps. The other strong drivers that afternoon were Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and Keselowski. With the variable of the new Next-Gen car, we should see some similar parity among drivers and manufacturers again this weekend. We'll take a look at the loop stats, the past history of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and current trends to determine who will dominate this Sunday afternoon at the one-mile oval in Loudon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – The Atlanta winner looks to stay in the catbird seat again this weekend at the Magic Mile. Elliott is on a hot streak and is looking to keep things going in the Ambetter 301. His Loudon stats aren't very impressive (25 percent Top-10 rate and no wins), but Elliott has been on point with his racing of late and short tracks have been kind to the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet. Elliott won at the Monster Mile in the late spring and has two Top 10s on four short tracks this season. The Hendrick Motorsports star led a New Hampshire career-best 53 laps at this oval last fall and is looking to build on that performance. With two wins and one runner-up finish in the last three events leading up to this weekend, Elliott appears to be the man to beat in the Ambetter 301.

Ross Chastain – Chastain scored his third runner-up finish of the season last Sunday in Atlanta. He now has 10 Top 5s on the season and is proving each week that he's a serious contender to win. Chastain has scored three Top-5 finishes on short tracks this season, including a runner-up finish in Phoenix. The Trackhouse Racing veteran is experiencing a career season and will no doubt impress Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Chastain has just three career starts at the Magic Mile, but he nabbed an impressive eighth-place finish last fall in the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. That was his best New Hampshire finish to date. We expect the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet to be sharp this Sunday in this 301-lap short-track battle.  

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has four Top-10 finishes in his last five events, and his fifth-place finish at Atlanta showed he was battling with the leaders right up to the end. The Penske Racing star will now shift focus to short-track racing this weekend. Blaney has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his four short-track starts this season. He won pole positions at Phoenix and Richmond and has led a combined 284 short-track laps. Blaney has not been stellar at the Magic Mile in his Cup Series career, but he does have Top-5 finishes in two of his last three New Hampshire starts. In fact, Blaney led 64 laps and finished fifth in last July's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. The driver of the No. 22 Ford will be a force in Sunday's Ambetter 301.

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a three-time New Hampshire winner, with his last win coming as recently as 2017. Busch's 1,100+ laps led at Loudon and 37-percent career Top-5 rate at this one-mile oval can't be overlooked. With a perfect four-for-four Top 10's on short tracks this season, Busch has been very consistent on these small ovals in the Next-Gen car. He led 103 laps at the one-mile oval in Dover several weeks ago. Busch has won only one race this season, but that came on the dirt oval in Bristol in the spring, which bodes well for his visit to New England this weekend. Busch is a classic short-track performer so elevating his game this weekend after recent intermediate ovals and road courses shouldn't be a problem. He'll contend for the win Sunday in Loudon.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson –  Larson largely hasn't been in race-winning form, at least so far this season. However, the Hendrick Motorsports star has become more consistent lately and is getting closer to weekly contention for victory. On short tracks, Larson has collected a pair of Top 10s in four events this season. He's also a three-time runner-up finisher at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Larson cracks the Top 10 at Loudon at a respectable 55 percent rate and his last effort at the Magic Mile netted a seventh-place finish. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet won't likely grab a win this Sunday, but he should be a challenger for a Top-5 finish.  

William Byron – Byron was a winner earlier this season at the similar track in Martinsville and was a Top-5 finisher at the Richmond bull ring. With close to 350 laps led on short tracks this season, these ovals have been his best tracks in what has been an inconsistent season. Byron has just four career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and a pedestrian 14.5 average finish over that span. He's yet to really make a mark on this particular short track, but we believe that will change this Sunday afternoon as Byron should finish as well as he ever has at the track. We wouldn't rule out a possible Top-5 finish in Sunday's 301-lap short track battle.   

Kevin Harvick – The four-time Loudon winner owns 13 career Top-5 finishes in 38 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. That 34 percent Top-5 rate at this flat oval ranks him among the best in the series. Harvick has led well over 800 laps for his career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Earlier in his career, this wasn't one of his better short tracks on the circuit, but the Stewart Haas Racing star has come on strong in recent seasons to reverse that trend. Harvick rides a four-race Loudon Top-10 streak into Sunday's Ambetter 301. In a difficult season, the short tracks have rewarded Harvick with three Top 10's in four races thus far.

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a two-time New Hampshire winner and rides a five-race Loudon Top-10 streak into Sunday's short-track battle. Logano's 13 Top-10 finishes at the Magic Mile check in at a respectable 57 percent rate, which has only been bolstered in recent seasons. The Penske Racing star grabbed second- and eighth-place finishes at the Martinsville and Phoenix short tracks this season, which bodes well for his start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend. Logano's 7.2 average finish over his last five Loudon starts seems like a reasonable mark to expect this weekend at the New England track.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at New Hampshire & solid upside

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a three-time New Hampshire winner and has finished runner-up at this small oval on multiple occasions over the years. Loudon really is one of his favorite short tracks on the circuit. It's been a challenging season for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota, but Hamlin did nab a victory at the Richmond short track in the spring, so the bull rings present an opportunity for this driver and team. With a 61 percent Top-10 rate at the Magic Mile, Hamlin is one of the more consistent performers at this facility in NASCAR's top division. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a bit of a gamble in the new Next-Gen car, but his upside for New Hampshire Motor Speedway easily makes him among one of the top sleeper plays this week.

Alex Bowman – Bowman has become more of a short-track performer in recent seasons after previously earning a reputation as an intermediate-oval expert. His last effort at Loudon in this event one year ago netted a career-best finish at the one-mile track of ninth place. Bowman has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes this season on the short tracks with a strong 9.8 average finish across that span. That's the type of consistency and performance we're looking for when we look for safe fantasy racing plays at particular tracks. Bowman has had past success on flat short tracks like Phoenix and Martinsville, which bodes well for this visit to New England.

Chase Briscoe – The talented youngster has been a surprisingly good short-track performer in 2022. Briscoe grabbed a dominant win at Phoenix, two Top 10's and four Top 15's on short tracks this season. The average finish checks in at a stellar 8.5 for Briscoe and the No. 14 team, and he should represent similar value again this week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This will be just Briscoe's second career Cup Series start at the New England short track, but his lone Xfinity Series start at the Magic Mile netted a strong sixth-place finish. That past experience will help a lot this weekend.

Kurt Busch – The veteran 23XI Racing driver has plenty of success at the New Hampshire short track. Busch is a three-time Loudon winner and cracks the Top 10 at a 40 percent rate at this facility. With the move into the new Next-Gen car this season, Busch has experienced a bit of a renaissance on these small flat ovals. He grabbed a fifth-place finish at Phoenix and sixth-place finish at Martinsville earlier this year. Those experiences should have him primed for a big performance at the Magic Mile this Sunday. Busch has typically qualified extremely well in recent Loudon races with three of his last four starting spots being in the first two rows. That good starting track position is a big key to his success. 

Chris Buescher – Buescher hasn't historically been a big performer on the circuit's short tracks, as a quick look at his history at Loudon reveals. However, the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has been a solid performer this season in the new generation stock car on these bull ring tracks. Finishes of 10th-, 15th-, 15th- and eighth-place have been Buescher's body of work on the ovals one-mile or less in size this year. The 10th-place finish at Phoenix teases the potential of the No. 17 Ford team this weekend at New Hampshire. Buescher has been performing fairly well of late with two Top 10s in the last four events leading up to this weekend, and the return to short-track racing should suit this veteran driver well in the Ambetter 301.

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been a good short-track performer this season. Bell has one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in 2022 on the small tracks. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has two career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, with his last effort netting a brilliant runner-up finish in this event one year ago. Bell has been in a little bit of a rut of late on intermediate ovals and road circuits, so the return to short-track racing should be a welcome return for the young driver. Bell has been one of the better performers at Joe Gibbs Racing on short tracks in the new Next-Gen car. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is having an inconsistent season and is currently mired in a four-race Top-10 drought. Truex has had just as difficult a time on the short tracks this season as well, with just one Top 10 in four starts. That average finish checks in at an inflated 18.3, which is well above his career average on the small tracks. Truex normally cracks the Top 10 at a respectable 46-percent at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This has been a very good track for him in recent seasons, but his 35th- and 22nd-place finishes at Phoenix and Martinsville do not bode well heading into Sunday's Ambetter 301.

Brad Keselowski – This is a difficult fade to forecast, but we're going to take that leap this weekend. Keselowski has been so razor-sharp at Loudon and especially in recent seasons that it's hard to recommend the bench for the driver of the No. 6 Ford. He's a two-time winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and sports a dazzling 67 percent Top-10 rate over 21 career starts. However, Keselowski has struggled to just one Top-15 finish on the short tracks this season and an 18.3 average finish across the four events. That is uncharacteristically high for a driver with a 13.3 career average finish on short tracks across a 14-year career. It's best to keep Keselowski benched in weekly lineup and salary cap leagues this week.

Michael McDowell – This veteran driver normally performs pretty well on short tracks, but the move to the Next-Gen car has hit his short-track performance pretty hard. McDowell has finished 27th-, 30th-, 25th- and 17th-place this season on ovals of one-mile or less, and average finish of 24.8. Those numbers are pretty discouraging considering some of the gains McDowell had made on short tracks leading up to 2022. New Hampshire Motor Speedway has also been a traditionally tough track for the Front Row Motorsports driver. McDowell has no Top 10's in 19 career starts at the Loudon oval and a lofty 32.7 average finish. He's only finished on the lead lap twice in his 19-career starts at NHMS. The driver No. 34 Ford is your classic combination of bad track meets poor recent performance this weekend.        

Bubba Wallace – Another driver struggling through a tough season is Wallace. With just two Top-10 finishes to this point, he's a distant 24th place in the driver point standings. Wallace has seen some of those struggles on the short tracks. With four finishes all outside the Top 15, he comes to New England with a 20.0 average finish on the Cup Series short tracks thus far this season. Wallace has four career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and all four have resulted in finishes outside the Top 20. The 23.8 average finish across that four-race span shows that the young driver struggles to maintain the lead lap in these events and finishes well back in the pack. Wallace is a high-risk fantasy racing option for the Ambetter 301.