Verizon 200 Preview: Return to the Brickyard

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit. This track is a 14-turn, 2.534-mile long road course that is built into the historic oval at Indianapolis. The event is 82 laps, divided into three stages of 15 laps, 20 laps and 47 laps. Top speeds are somewhat higher than typical road circuits due to the incorporation of the front straight of the oval into the layout and the 14 turns are less than the typical road course. The circuit is somewhat reminiscent of the pace and tempo of the Circuit of the Americas course, but lacking the elevation changes. The track is really unlike any other road course that NASCAR races on currently. Formula 1 used to compete on this course and IndyCar has raced here since the 2014 season. NASCAR held an Xfinity Series race on the layout July Fourth weekend of 2020, and that was the event that kicked the door open to the Cup Series scheduling an event at the Indianapolis GP circuit. 

Since this is just the third time NASCAR's top division is competing at the Indy GP circuit, we have very little track specific data to examine this weekend. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely without some numbers. The table below contains the electronic loop scoring data from the two previous Cup Series races on the Indy GP circuit. This data is new and very applicable to the current set of drivers that are in NASCAR's top division. These statics will aide us greatly in gathering a driver group for this weekend's Verizon 200. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from the last two races at the Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit. 

This event one year ago we had a thrilling race that would be extended into NASCAR overtime. However, that could not break Tyler Reddick's death-grip on the lead as he would lead the final 25 laps and capture an entertaining victory over Austin Cindric. The win was in the middle of a dominant stretch for Reddick on the road circuits as he would capture three wins on these style tracks between the middle of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. The 23XI Racing youngster hasn't fared as well in the last two road racing events, so it will be interesting to see if Reddick can rebound and defend his race crown of one year ago this weekend. In this event two seasons ago, the inaugural Verizon 200, road racing ace AJ Allmendinger would grab the win in another thrilling, overtime affair. It was his second-career Cup Series victory and a huge accomplishment for Allmendinger and the No. 16 Kaulig Racing crew.   

A lot of those same names that were battling over the course of last season's Verizon 200 will be names we will once again look to in this second installment at the Brickyard. Chase Elliott has yet to win this season and is still looking for that playoff qualifying victory. He's a seven-time winner on NASCAR road circuits, and will certainly be a driver of interest at Indianapolis. Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin have been pretty strong of late, so it would not be surprising to see those two racing among the leaders as well. A new face we expect to see at the front this season is Kyle Busch. He was an 11th-place finisher in last season's Verizon 200, but Busch has been a razor sharp performer on the road courses in 2023, with three Top-5 finishes to-date. We'll give you a rundown of the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Verizon 200 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit.   

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Tyler Reddick – Reddick won this event one year ago in an impressive performance. He'd lead 38 of the 86 laps and run away from Austin Cindric in NASCAR overtime to collect the win. It would be one of three road course wins for the young driver since 2022. Reddick hasn't been quite as lucky this season on the winding circuits with a victory at COTA, but struggles at both Sonoma and the Chicago Street Course. Still, the driver of the No. 45 Toyota has been very fast. Reddick has led 49 total laps this season on the road course and has qualified on the outside pole of all three events. Returning to the scene of his victory one season ago will be a major morale boost for Reddick. He's had great speed of late, but has had difficulty closing. That will likely change in Sunday's Verizon 200.

Kyle Busch – Busch has had his inconsistencies this season, but he has had his strengths too. Those 3 wins didn't just hop in Busch's hands, and he had to work hard for each of them. The high point of 2023 for the No. 8 RCR team has been mainly intermediate ovals and road courses. The latter the more surprising of the two. Busch is a perfect three-for-three in Top 5's on the winding circuits this season. Two of those efforts were runner-up finishes at COTA and Sonoma. Busch finished 11th in this event one year ago with his former JGR race team, which is reasonably good, but we feel that he could really elevate his performance this weekend. Richard Childress Racing has given this skilled driver really good cars on the winding circuits.     

Chase Elliott – Elliott has struggled this injury-interrupted season, but he hasn't struggled on the road circuits. Finishes of fifth- and third-place at Sonoma and Chicago in recent weeks are his recent body of work. Those road course skills that we expect from Elliott have been on full display. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has seven-career victories on road courses and his 470 laps led has produced a sterling average finish of 7.9 on these style tracks. Elliott nabbed 14 laps led and a fourth-place finish two seasons ago in the inaugural Indy Grand Prix event. He has the motivation and the skills to pilot his Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet into victory lane in the Verizon 200.

Shane van Gisbergen – The Supercars champ went from relative obscurity among NASCAR fans to a cult sensation overnight when he swept into victory lane at the Chicago Street Course in July. Van Gisbergen led 9 laps, most of them late and ran away from Justin Haley to secure the win in the Grant Park 220. The loop data for that race was off the charts for this veteran of road racing. He would pilot the Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet to 21 quality passes, 12 fastest laps and a running position within the Top 5 for the full event. This will be van Gisbergen's second NASCAR start and first on the Indy GP circuit. There should be little concern about his abilities. The Kiwi is a 63-time winner and three-time champion in Supercars. Everyone in the field will be watching the No. 91 Chevrolet very closely.     

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chris Buescher – You can't argue with results and that's exactly what Buescher has delivered the last two seasons on the road circuits. The Roush Fenway Keselowski driver has two Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes in the last nine road course events for a stellar 8.6 average finish across the span. Buescher comes by it naturally as his average finish on road courses is anywhere from four-to-six spots better than his average on ovals during his Cup Series career. In his last two starts on the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit, the driver of the No. 17 Ford has grabbed 12th- and 10th-place finishes at the Brickyard. Coming off wins the last two races, we expect the driver of the No. 17 Ford to be a dependable fantasy racing asset this Sunday afternoon. 

AJ Allmendinger – The 2021 Verizon 200 winner checks in squarely in the solid plays list this week. Allmendinger's expertise at this form of stock car racing is well known. He's a two-time winner on Cup Series road courses and an 11-time winner in the Xfinity Series in road racing. Allmendinger has had it a bit tough this season in the road racing events, but he should rebound nicely at Indianapolis. Most recently he raced to a strong sixth-place finish at the Sonoma circuit. That was a strong effort to get the No. 16 Chevrolet team pointed back in the right direction on these style tracks. We won't soon forget Allmendinger's thrilling win at Indianapolis two seasons ago and his seventh-place finish last season. That makes him fantasy worthy in Sunday's Verizon 200.    

Austin Cindric – Cindric is one of two drivers to score Top 10's in both Cup Series races at the Indy Grand Prix circuit. He scored a ninth-place finish in the inaugural Verizon 200 and turned in a very impressive runner-up finish in last season's battle at the Brickyard. The Penske Racing driver hasn't had too much go right this season, but road course racing has been a highlight for the No. 2 Ford team. Cindric collected a pair of sixth-place finishes at COTA and recently on the streets of Chicago. His 67-percent Top-10 rate and 10.3 average finish on these style tracks the last two seasons supports his inclusion in the solid plays list. The fact that Cindric has finished fifth- and first-place in his two Xfinity Series starts at this facility speaks volumes of his ability on this track.

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star led 28 laps and finished an impressive third in this event two years ago at Indianapolis. Larson didn't have as much luck last season and crashed out of this road racing battle. However, the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been very proficient on road circuits this season with two Top 10's in the three events to-date. Finishes of 14th-, eighth- and fourth-place have him carrying a stellar 8.7 average finish in this style of racing into the Brickyard. Larson should be a strong qualifier as well as a strong finisher on the Indy Grand Prix circuit. We believe Larson will be a face among the leaders in Sunday's Verizon 200.     

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Bell began to forge a reputation as a top road course performer when he grabbed his first-career Cup Series win on the road circuit in Daytona in early 2021. Since then he's won a second winding circuit event with his victory at the Charlotte ROVAL last fall. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has been generally a 50-percent Top-10 finisher on these style tracks through his four-season career in NASCAR's top division. Bell hasn't been hugely successful at the Indy GP circuit in two starts, but last year he opened some eyes by leading 17 laps after qualifying on the second row. Bell would fade to 12th-place by the finish, but prove he has some skill at this unique racing facility.      

Joey Logano – Coming off a 14th-place finish at Michigan, Logano is looking for better consistency as we build up towards the Chase playoff. The Verizon 200 could be the event that kick starts better performance for the No. 22 Ford team and better consistency. Logano has qualified well in both his prior starts at the Indy GP circuit, but crashed in the inaugural event. However, the Penske Racing star returned to the Brickyard last season and claimed a strong sixth-place finish at the track. Logano has been a steady performer the last two seasons on road circuits with a 50-percent Top-10 rate, and this season in particular he's been good with recent third- and eighth-place finishes at Sonoma and Chicago.    

Ross Chastain – Chastain snapped a five-race Top-10 drought with his seventh-place finish at Michigan this past weekend. Whatever had been plaguing the No. 1 Chevrolet team appears to be now righted and heading back in a good direction. Since moving to Trackhouse Racing at the beginning of 2022, Chastain has elevated his performance on these style tracks. He grabbed a surprising win at COTA last season and he's been a 50-percent Top-10 finisher on these style tracks since. Earlier this season Chastain grabbed fourth- and 10th-place finishes at COTA and Sonoma. The journeyman driver hasn't had as much luck in his two starts on the Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit, but he's got the ability to turn in a much better performance this Sunday afternoon.

Justin Haley – The young Kaulig Racing driver hasn't been known for his road course prowess, but he's beginning to change that perception in his most recent outings. It started last fall when he nabbed a career-best fifth-place finish on the Charlotte ROVAL, and it peaked most recently when he battled down the stretch to finish second on the streets of Chicago. Haley has the road racing gift and he's grooming that skill now three full seasons into his Cup Series career. The very first start he made on the Indy GP circuit two seasons ago yielded a strong eighth-place finish for the young driver. Given the current trajectory of this driver and team we wouldn't be surprised if Haley pulls out another Top-10 performance in this weekend's Verizon 200.     

Ty Gibbs –  Gibbs has seemingly gotten his act together in the last six races. The rookie has posted one Top-5, two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes during the span and climbed from 19th- to 16th-place in the driver points. He's qualifying much better and that starting track position is making a big difference. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has shown some skill on the road courses this season. Gibbs has nabbed a pair of Top-10 finishes in the three events to-date and is sporting a tidy 12.0 average finish across the span. His most recent effort netted a strong ninth-place finish on the streets of Chicago. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster made a start in this event one year ago and earned some valuable experience. While it was a mediocre 17th-place finish, it should be experience that serves him well this Sunday.  

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has been a bit of a mess this season on the road course circuits. Finishes of 37th-, 17th- and 31st-place have been his body of work so far. However, that trend could likely change this weekend at the Brickyard. Wallace's two prior starts at the track provide some good reason to hope for a rebound. The 23XI Racing veteran has registered finishes of 13th- and fifth-place in his two prior starts here. Despite a mediocre 23.0 average start at Indy, Wallace has shown an ability to move forward through the field and grab good results at this track. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota is currently in a good stretch of performance with 101 laps led, one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in the last four events.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is on a heater right now with one win and riding a four-race Top-10 streak into the Brickyard. However, we would urge caution when considering him for your fantasy lineups this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has struggled the last two seasons on the road course circuit. Hamlin hasn't registered a Top-10 on a similar style track since the fall of 2021, and that's despite pole positions this season at both Sonoma and Chicago. The 11.7 average start vs. the 18.1 average finish across his last 10 road racing events is a telling stat. Hamlin's two prior starts on the Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit have yielded uninspiring 23rd- and 14th-place finishes. Seems there's more likelihood for something to go wrong than right for the No. 11 Toyota team.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex is a common name that pops up (in a positive sense) when we talk about NASCAR road courses. However, upon closer examination we see that the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran is way more successful on the more traditional tracks of Sonoma and Watkins Glen. These newer circuits have never yielded the kind of success that the older NASCAR road tracks have given him. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has finishes of 15th- and 21st-place in his two prior Indy GP circuit starts, and that's a far cry from racing among the leaders. Truex won his fourth-career victory at Sonoma earlier this season, but he also posted finishes of 17th- and 32nd-place at COTA and Chicago as well. We believe that's a good illustration of our point coming to Indianapolis this Sunday.       

Ryan Blaney – Blaney stopped a three-race Top-10 skid with his ninth-place finish at Michigan this past week. We'd like to say it's the start of bigger things for the No. 12 Ford team, but we're not quite convinced that's true. Blaney was a good performer earlier in his career in the old generation stock car on the winding circuits. He grabbed a win on the Charlotte ROVAL and was a better than 50-percent Top-10 finisher on these circuits. However, since the change to the new generation stock car, Blaney has struggled on these tracks. He's posted just two Top-10 finishes in his last nine road course starts and his most recent work has been dreadful. Finishes of 21st-, 31st- and 33rd-place have been his road racing resume this season.

Aric Almirola – Road racing is difficult on the oval experts and that's the case with Almirola. He's always been a better performer on the big ovals of the series and the road racing has always been his weakness. Almirola has only managed one Top 20 this season in the three road course events to-date and an inflated 23.3 average finish across that span. This parallels his career stats on the Cup Series road courses. In 37 starts, Almirola has just two Top-10 finishes on road circuits (5-percent) and his 21.4 average finish is well above his career averages on various sized ovals. The driver of the No. 10 Stewart Haas Racing Ford has finishes of 19th- and 38th-place in his two prior starts on the Indy GP circuit.