Verizon 200 Preview: Return to the Brickyard

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit this weekend. The track is a 14-turn, 2.534-mile road course that is built into the historic oval at Indianapolis. The event is 82 laps, divided into three stages of 15 laps, 20 laps and 47 laps. Top speeds are somewhat higher than typical road circuits due to the incorporation of the front straight of the oval into the layout, and the 14 turns are less than the typical road course. The circuit is somewhat reminiscent of the pace and tempo of the Circuit of the Americas course, but lacking the elevation changes. 

The track is really unlike any other NASCAR road course. Formula 1 used to compete on this course and IndyCar has raced here since 2014. NASCAR held an Xfinity Series race on the layout in 2020, the event that kicked open the door to the Cup Series scheduling an event at the Indianapolis GP circuit. 

Since this is just the second time NASCAR's top division is competing at the Indy GP circuit, we have little track specific data to examine this weekend. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely without some numbers. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated this season on the various road circuits of the Cup Series. Since we're using the Next Gen car in 2022, it's really the best measure of our drivers on road circuits this season. The data will cover the last three road racing events, so it will be fresh statistics. In the table below are the driver's standard stats at COTA, Sonoma Raceway and Road America sorted by average finish.

This event one year ago was the NASCAR Cup Series' debut at the Indy GP circuit. It was as thrilling as it was dramatic. A trio of drivers would dominate most of the event. Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott would combine to lead 69 of the 95 laps, but it would be AJ Allmendinger who would rise late and lead the final two laps to secure the victory. A late caution would set up this mad scramble thanks to NASCAR overtime. Hamlin appeared poised to win, but Chase Briscoe would spin him out battling for the lead on the next-to-last lap. That incident would take both Briscoe and Hamlin out of the running, and Allmendinger would then march to the victory over Ryan Blaney. It would be Allmendinger's second-career win at NASCAR's top level and an exclamation point on what would be the Cup Series' first race on the very technical road circuit at Indianapolis.

A lot of those same names that were battling over the course of last season's Verizon 200 will be names we will once again look to in this second installment at the Brickyard. Elliott has yet to win this season on the road course circuit, but he's won three of the last five events and comes to Indianapolis on a torrid hot streak. Larson and Hamlin have been pretty strong of late, so it would not be surprising to see those two racing the leaders as well. A new face we expect to see at the front this season is Ross Chastain. He struggled in last season's Verizon 200, but Chastain has been a razor sharp performer on the road courses in 2022. We'll give you a rundown of the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Verizon 200 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – Elliott led 14 laps and started third on the grid in last season's Verizon 200, but he finished fourth place after all the chaos at the end of last season's Indy race. He'll look to get the win he was denied in last season's IMS road race. Elliott enters this weekend on fire with three wins in the last five events. He's really become the driver to beat each week right now despite the type of track. Elliott has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on the road course circuit this season, including a brilliant runner-up finish last time out at Road America. His 62 laps led are tied with Daniel Suarez for first-place among lap leaders on road circuits this season. As a seven-time winner on Cup Series road courses, it's impossible to think of filling out our fantasy lineup this weekend with Elliott at the top of the list. 

Ross Chastain – Chastain was an uninspiring 29th-place in last season's Verizon 200, but he'll make up for that disappointment in a big way this Sunday afternoon. The move to Trackhouse Racing in the off-season has propelled Chastain to a career-best season in 2022. The road courses have been a big part of that success for the veteran driver. Chastain grabbed a thrilling win at COTA in the spring and he's finished a strong seventh- and fourth-place at Sonoma and Road America. He's really been one of the top performing road course drivers in the new Next-Gen stock car. Chastain should qualify well and have little trouble staying in with the leaders in this 82-lap road course battle at Indianapolis.   

Tyler Reddick – Reddick rebounded to better form with a strong runner-up finish this past weekend at Pocono Raceway. That performance bodes well for a good finish at the Indy GP circuit this weekend. Pocono itself has a lot of characteristics that make it more like a road course than an oval. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet grabbed a big win most recently at Road America and Reddick nabbed a strong Top-5 finish earlier this season at COTA. The young RCR driver has shown the ability to qualify extremely well in these road racing events (4.3 average start this season) and to lead laps and challenge for wins. Reddick will be a driver to keep a close eye on in Sunday's Verizon 200.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has come on strong in recent weeks and rides a four-race Top-10 streak into Indianapolis this weekend. The Trackhouse Racing veteran grabbed his first-career Cup Series win a few weeks ago at the Sonoma circuit. Suarez also grabbed an impressive Top-5 finish most recently at Road America. His win and two Top 5's on the road courses to this point in the season rival any other driver in the series. Additionally, Suarez is tied with Chase Elliott with 62 laps led on the winding circuits this season. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet is not to be underestimated in NASCAR's return to the Indy GP circuit this weekend.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson – The 2022 season has been a real challenge for the defending champion, but Larson has clearly been gathering some steam in recent weeks. With three Top-5 finishes in the last five races, Larson has been the biggest points fetcher over the span aside from Chase Elliott. The Hendrick Motorsports star led 28 laps and finished an impressive third in this event one year ago at Indianapolis. Larson won the pole at Sonoma a few weeks ago and led 26 laps in that road racing event. More recently he qualified third and finished third at Road America. That performance in particular is demonstrative of his recent improvement. We believe Larson will be a face among the leaders in Sunday's Verizon 200.      

Ryan Blaney – Blaney didn't get the finish he deserved last week at Pocono Raceway. He led 7 laps and raced among the Top 10 much of that event, but crashed late and didn't cash in on the finish. The Penske Racing youngster will attempt to rebound at the Indy GP circuit this weekend. Blaney was vying for the win at the end of last season's Verizon 200 and would end up finishing a brilliant runner-up in the Cup Series' debut at this circuit. That experience should pay big dividends for a driver who performs well on road courses in most starts. The driver of the No. 12 Ford Mustang has sixth-, sixth- and 11th-place finishes this season on the road racing portion of the schedule. While he's not been a big contender to win, Blaney has been a challenger for Top-5 finishes on road circuits in 2022.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin will attempt to rebound from the crushing blow of having last weekend's Pocono win stripped from he and the No. 11 Toyota team after failing post-race inspection. It will be difficult to rebound, but no less important for this driver and team. Hamlin led 27 laps in this event one year ago and appeared poised to win in the closing laps before Chase Briscoe sent his Toyota spinning out of control and out of contention to win. The Joe Gibbs Racing star was very strong this past weekend at Pocono Raceway and that should bode well for a rebound performance at the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit. The veteran driver has a ton to race for this weekend and really needs a Top-10 finish.

AJ Allmendinger – Last season's Verizon 200 winner checks in squarely in the solid plays list this week. Allmendinger's expertise at this form of stock car racing is well known. He's a two-time winner on Cup Series road courses and an eight-time winner in the Xfinity Series in road racing. Allmendinger has had it a bit tough this season in the road racing events, but he should rebound nicely at Indianapolis. Most recently he raced from deep in the field to finish a respectable ninth-place at Road America. That was a strong effort to get the No. 16 Chevrolet team pointed back in the right direction on these style tracks. We won't soon forget Allmendinger's thrilling win at Indianapolis one year ago and that makes him fantasy worthy in Sunday's Verizon 200.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Kevin Harvick – Coming off a tough finish at Pocono, Harvick will look to rebound at the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit this Sunday. Fortunately for the Stewart Haas Racing star, Harvick has been pretty sharp on the road courses this season with the new generation stock car. Harvick has 11th-, fourth- and 10th-place finishes in those three events for a strong 8.3 average finish across the span. He's not led laps nor challenged for wins, but Harvick has been a face among the Top 10 in these events. His finish in this event one year ago was a respectable 14th-place finish at the Brickyard. That experience will help the driver of the No. 4 Ford prepare for this weekend's road race.   

Austin Cindric – Cindric won last season's Xfinity Series race at the Indy GP circuit and he finished Top 5 in the Xfinity Series debut at the track in 2020. Those two sharp outings for the Penske Racing youngster netted a total of 50 laps led of this facility. Additionally, Cindric finished ninth in his Cup Series debut at this track in last season's Verizon 200. He's batting a cool thousand in Top 10 outings at this challenging circuit. We expect that continue this Sunday in the Next-Gen car at Indianapolis. Cindric's three Top 10's in three road course outings this season speaks volumes to his skills in this style of racing. The driver of the No. 2 Ford is a major upside selection in fantasy racing lineups this weekend.       

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex appears to have righted the ship after some inconsistency most of this season. Truex has finishes of 11th-, fourth- and seventh-place in his last three events leading up to Indianapolis weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has been a strong road course performer over the years and he finished Top 15 in this event one year ago. Truex nabbed Top 10 earlier this year at COTA and a Top 15 more recently at Road America. The veteran driver of the No. 19 Toyota has the road racing gift as his career 50-percent Top-10 rate and solid 14.0 average finish on these tracks demonstrates. We expect Truex to challenge the Top 10 in Sunday's Verizon 200.     

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe hasn't been razor sharp in road course racing in 2022, but his past experience shows that he has that gift. However, the Stewart Haas Racing youngster has been improving on these tracks in the new generation stock car. Briscoe's outings at Sonoma and Road America most recently have netted Top-15 finishes. The driver of the No. 14 Ford Mustang is coming off three Top-15 finishes in the last four races, so Briscoe has been racing competitively of late. Most importantly, Briscoe was the driver battling at the end of last season's Verizon 200 with Denny Hamlin for the win. Unfortunately, the young driver got too zealous and wrecked Hamlin with 2 laps to go. The move would deprive both of the win. Still, it showed Briscoe's skills after leading 12 laps and battling for the win at this track.   

Christopher Bell – Bell has been a strong performer the past couple weeks. His big win at the Loudon short track a couple weeks ago was followed up with a strong Top-5 finish at Pocono Raceway this past Sunday. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota is riding some major momentum in the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit this week. Bell finished a brilliant third earlier this season at COTA and he grabbed his first-career Cup Series win on the Daytona road course in 2021. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has displayed flashes of brilliance in this form of stock car racing. Bell ran into some bad luck in this event one year ago, but he should rebound solidly in Sunday's Verizon 200.    

Chris Buescher – You can't argue with results and that's exactly what Buescher has delivered this season on the road circuits. The Roush Fenway Keselowski driver has one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes for a stellar 9.7 average finish in three road course events this season. Buescher comes by it naturally as his average finish on road courses is anywhere from four-to-six spots better than his average on ovals during his Cup Series career. In last season's Verizon 200 Buescher grabbed a respectable 12th-place finish in his debut on the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit. We expect the driver of the No. 17 Ford to be a dependable fantasy racing asset this Sunday afternoon. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Last week's disqualification at Pocono is just the latest challenge in what has been a tough few weeks for Busch. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is now mired in a six-race Top-10 drought and looking for answers coming to the Indianapolis road course. This style of racing has been a real puzzle for the driver of the No. 18 Toyota this season. Finishes of 28th-, 30th- and 29th-place have been Busch's body of work this season at COTA, Sonoma and Road America. Those are not very encouraging stats coming into Indianapolis this weekend. In this event one year ago, Busch would not qualify well and would spend most of his day mired in traffic with a resulting 20th-place finish. This is a good weekend to bench the Joe Gibbs superstar.     

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Road Racing is difficult on the oval experts and that's the case with Stenhouse. He's always been a better performer on the big ovals of the series and the road racing has been his weakness. Stenhouse has only managed one Top 20 this season in the three road course events to-date and an inflated 27.0 average finish across that span. This parallels his career stats on the Cup Series road courses. In 28 starts, Stenhouse has never visited the Top 10 on a road circuit and his 23.2 average finish is well above his career averages on various sized ovals. The driver of the No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet should remain on the bench until the series returns to a big oval.   

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has enjoyed a bounce in performance the last couple weeks. Finishes of third- and eighth-place at Loudon and Pocono have reversed some recent struggles in the No. 23 Toyota team. However, it will be tough to keep that momentum going at Indianapolis. Wallace has historically struggled with this aspect of his game. This season alone, Wallace has three DNF's for various reasons at COTA, Sonoma and Road America. The average finish stands at a bloated 36.3 across the three events. It will be a tall task to expect the driver of the 23XI Racing Toyota to break that trend in Sunday's Verizon 200.

Alex Bowman –  Bowman enters this weekend mired in a terrible cold streak. The 11th-place finish at Pocono last Sunday helped slow the bleeding, but the No. 48 team is still stuck in a seven-race Top-10 drought and the DNF's have been piling up of late. Bowman has been a decent road course performer this season, but his recent struggles raise many concerns as the Cup Series returns to the Indy GP circuit. In this event one year ago, the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet struggled to maintain the lead lap and finished a subpar 17th-place. With the new Next-Gen car it will be a big struggle for Bowman to adapt and turn in a good finish this weekend.