Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview: The Road Course Wild Card

We leave the ovals behind this week and head to the twisting turns as the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series will make its first stop of the season on the road course circuit.  Sonoma Raceway in California plays host to the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this Sunday afternoon. As we leave the oval tracks in the rear view mirror, the crew chiefs will be left scrambling to dust off the road course playbooks for this event.  Sonoma Raceway is a two-mile, 12-turn road course with many elevation changes and several different types of corners.  The long, relatively straight runs are abruptly ended by many sharp corners, so horsepower and brakes are very important.  One lap around Sonoma incurs a total of160 feet in elevation change, so this course is very hard on the driver and equipment.  The 180-degree carrousel turn before the start/finish line provides many passing opportunities to those drivers who can drive in deep and out-brake their opponents.  Other than the carrousel turn, the drivers have to be on their toes for any opportunity to make a pass.  These characteristics make it a tough course for the oval track drivers, because they will struggle to find passing opportunities. 

The action on the road circuits the last few seasons has been pretty rough and tumble, in fact, it resembles more of what we expect to see on a short track oval due to all the contact.  Sonoma has been no exception, so we expect to see that same fender-beating action in this installment of the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  Along with the handful of road course specialists who show up every year for this event, we have a handful of Monster Energy Cup Series regulars that really shine when we visit Sonoma Raceway.  Drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch don't miss a beat when we come to the California road course.  These drivers have great fantasy racing value on the circuit's many ovals, and they also make great selections on the road circuits like Sonoma Raceway.  Their experience with shifting and making right turns will make them better than most the Monster Energy Cup regulars in the field.

Since this is the first of three road course events in the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule, we'll have to almost solely rely on recent historical data this weekend.  The current hot streaks entering this race will play a very small part, but really this style of track requires a lot of historical data review for making our driver lists.  There are certain drivers, really good ones, who hate road course racing and it will show up on the track this Sunday.  The drivers who have performed well at Sonoma in recent years have a definite advantage in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  The loop stats shown below cover the last 14 years or 14 races at Sonoma Raceway.

The Sonoma road course has always played well to veteran drivers.  Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart dominated here for years.  With the retirement of those stars, other veteran drivers have been locked in a battle for supremacy of this California road course.  The last five seasons have seen Martin Truex Jr. (14 seasons), Kevin Harvick (19 seasons), Tony Stewart (18 seasons), Kyle Busch (15 seasons) and Carl Edwards (13 seasons) visit victory lane at Sonoma.  So it's not likely that one of the young stars will take the checkers this Sunday, but much more likely a driver of 10+ years' experience.  Drivers like Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott have been racing well of late, but their chances of becoming a first-time Sonoma winner would seem to be pretty slim.  However, past Sonoma winners like Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, and both Busch brothers are always in the hunt for the win each time we visit this unique road course.  We'll take a look at the stats, Sonoma's history and the road course experts in order to give you the drivers you need to dominate your league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The two-time Sonoma winner comes back to the scene of his dominant victory last season in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  Truex rides into California a strong sixth-place in the championship standings after his good start to the season and third-place finish at Michigan before the off-week.  The veteran driver has a great road racing resume.  Truex has a pair of victories and three Top-5 finishes in his last six outings at Sonoma Raceway.  In addition, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota has been equally successful at Watkins Glen.  Truex and a victory and runner-up finish there in his last two starts.  The veteran driver has become one of the gold standards in NASCAR when it comes to road racing.      

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at Sonoma Raceway.  Coming off the Pocono victory and a pair of Top 5's at Charlotte and Michigan, Busch is racing very well right now.  His recent outings at this California track have been pretty spot on.  Busch won the 2015 installment of this event, and last season he qualified ninth on the starting grid and finished an impressive fifth-place.  The No. 18 JGR team has the speed right now to contend for wins each week, and Busch presents the homerun potential at this road course to put on a dominant performance.  If the right things click in terms of race flow and pit strategy, Busch could walk away this Sunday as a three-time Sonoma winner. 

Clint Bowyer – The No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing team has performed well this season and Bowyer has rewarded them with a 12th-place position in the standings and eight Top-10 finishes coming to Sonoma Raceway.  His resume is very impressive at this road circuit.  Bowyer won this event in 2012 and he owns eight Top 5's and 10 Top 10's in just 13-career starts at this facility.  He cracks the Top 5 at a ridiculous 62-percent rate at the California road course.  The veteran driver's skills on these winding circuits is clear once you examine the numbers.  The last two seasons at Sonoma Raceway, Bowyer has nabbed impressive second- and third-place finishes.  You can guarantee he'll be very eager to take to the track this Sunday afternoon. 

Chase Elliott – Among all the veterans, Elliott will be making just his fourth-career Sonoma start this Sunday afternoon.  He one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in those three prior starts.  For what he lacks in experience on the road circuits, he's quickly making up for with results.  Elliott grabbed his first-career Cup Series win last season on the winding circuit of Watkins Glen.  He out-battled a determined Martin Truex Jr. that afternoon for a convincing road course victory.  With a strong sixth-place finish at the Charlotte Roval, Elliott had quite a season last year racing on the road courses.  Given the obvious progression of this young driver on winding circuits, and his current momentum, Elliott is a great contender play this week for the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Solid Plays – Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kevin Harvick – Harvick doesn't have the career-long statistics at Sonoma to inspire major confidence this weekend, but he's been coming on strong at this facility the last four seasons.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford rides a four-race Sonoma Top-6 streak into this weekend's action, and it was topped off with his first-career victory at this road course in 2017.  He led a career-best 24 laps and held teammate, Clint Bowyer, at bay to capture the win.  We're willing to bet Harvick and crew chief, Rodney Childers, learned a lot from that experience.  They should continue to challenge for wins and rack up the Top 10's at Sonoma for the foreseeable future.      

Kurt Busch – Busch has been on a good streak the last two months of racing.  He's held steady around eighth-place in the driver point standings in his last 8 starts, and has two runner-up and four Top-10 finishes during the span.  The veteran driver is an excellent road course racer and his Sonoma stats back that up.  Busch won this event in 2011 and he's led 198-career circuits at the 12-turn California race track.  His seven-career Top-5 finishes work out to an impressive 39-percent Top-5 rate at Sonoma Raceway.  Busch rides a four-race Sonoma Top-10 streak into this weekend's event and that includes a runner-up finish in 2015.  He is surging at the right time and a real threat to crack the Top 5 in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350. 

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster cracked the Top 10 for the first time at Sonoma last season in his debut with the No. 88 team at Sonoma.  Bowman was even more impressive at the Charlotte Roval late last season when he navigated that unusual track to a third-place starting spot and fourth-place finish in the event's debut.  While his Watkins Glen outing wasn't a complete throwaway either with a decent 14th-place showing.  Looking at the performance last season, we see a young driver that has skills on the winding road courses.  Those kinds of finishes don't happen by accident at these facilities.  This weekend's Sonoma race is the first road circuit of the season, but we expect Bowman to pick up right where he left off last year on these style tracks.      

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been looking to get back into the groove he enjoyed earlier this season.  Sixth- and 11th-place finishes the last two races are a hopeful sign.  Sonoma Raceway hasn't been Hamlin's best track over the years, but things started turning more positive there three seasons ago.  The veteran driver led a career-best 33 laps and finished runner-up to Tony Stewart in a brilliant performance in 2016.  That was the beginning of his current three-race Top-10 streak at the California road course.  That success has translated to other circuits on the Cup Series tour.  Hamlin has four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last seven road course starts.  That ranks the driver of the No. 11 Toyota as one of the more consistent performers in NASCAR's top division on these challenging road courses. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Sonoma who can provide a solid finish

Joey Logano – Logano is riding a three-race Top-10 streak, and the Michigan victory before the off-week into this weekend's action in California.  The No. Ford 22 team is pointed back in the right direction entering the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  Logano has four Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, so he's had consistency and success there in the past.  His last two starts at Sonoma haven't been anything special, so that's the reason for the slight downgrade this week.  Logano still has the potential to turn things around to the high side.  A Top-5 finish is completely within reach for this driver and team.  All things being equal we expect Logano to stay on a roll this Sunday afternoon at the 12-turn road course.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster will be making his fourth-career start at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday afternoon.  That gives Blaney a little more seat time and experience here than some of the other younger drivers.  His debut at the course three years ago was a subpar 23rd-place finish, but he returned in 2017 and peddled to a surprising ninth-place finish in that season's Toyota/Save Mart 350.  Blaney has just continued to get better on these style tracks with each start.  It culminated with his big and surprising victory in the first-ever race at the Charlotte Roval last fall.  The trend line is quite clear and the 15.1 average finish on the road courses speaks to Blaney's improving skill at this style of racing.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson joined the winner's list at Sonoma with his brilliant performance in this event in 2010.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet qualified on the outside pole for that race and led 55 laps en route to Johnson's first-career Sonoma win.  The seven-time Monster Energy Cup Series champion has cracked the Top 10 in seven of his last 10 Sonoma starts.  Johnson's 53-percent Top-10 rate at this winding course ranks among the very best in the Monster Energy Cup Series.  He comes to California looking for a good finish after his 15th-place at Michigan before the off week.  This is a driver's course, and that gives the veteran Johnson an edge over younger and less experienced drivers.

Daniel Suarez – The young Stewart Haas Racing driver has accumulated some good numbers on the winding circuits in his brief career.  A pair of Watkins Glen Top-5's illustrate the skill Suarez has on these tracks.  He raced more on these style tracks in Mexico than on ovals and it shows.  Suarez has 15th- and 16th-place Sonoma finishes in his resume, but that was with Joe Gibbs Racing.  He's a completely different driver now in the No. 41 Ford.  Suarez is on pace for a career-best 15 Top-10 finishes this season.  We believe Sunday at Sonoma Raceway could be one of those.  The skill set to succeed on road courses is there, and this young driver is racing very well right now.    

Erik Jones – In an article full of Cup Series veterans, Jones is one of the lone young standouts in this weekend's race field.  The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster will be making his third-career Sonoma Raceway start on Sunday.  His debut in 2017 was a lackluster 25th-place finish, but Jones returned last season and fetched an impressive seventh-place Sonoma finish in his second-career start.  That was one good effort in what has been a rapidly improving road racing resume for Jones.  Three of his last four starts on these circuits have yielded Top 10's.  With a strong effort at Pocono (third) a couple races ago, we believe the No. 20 JGR team are ready for this Sonoma race. 

Ryan Newman – The 41-year-old veteran has put up some fantastic finishes in the rolling hills of California.  Newman's seven-career Top-10 finishes in 17 starts ranks a respectable 41-percent for a Top-10 rate.  His Top-10 finishes in two of his last four Sonoma Raceway starts shows that Newman is racing at a high level in recent outings at this facility.  The No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing team has had some difficulties this season, but this is a race that can put him back on the right track.  We really like the veteran experience that this driver and team brings to the table in a very young race field.  When it comes to road course racing, experience is an invaluable asset. 

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – Despite Keselowski's past success at the New York road course, Watkins Glen, he's never been able to translate that to the much different track in California.  In nine-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, the Penske Racing star has only two Top-10 finishes and has only 24 laps led over those starts.  He doesn't finish poor at these tracks, but his 16.7 average finish at Sonoma and 22-percent Top-10 rate show that Keselowski is not vying for wins, leading laps and challenging the Top 10.  That's reason enough to lower expectations for the No. 2 Penske Racing team this Sunday.  This is clearly a week to keep Keselowski on the fantasy racing bench and save that start for the following weekend at Chicago Speedway.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Stenhouse has been an up-and-down performer this season, but this weekend it's time to take a pass on the driver of the No. 17 Ford. If you play in weekly lineup leagues, keep him on the bench this Sunday afternoon.  The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has simply never performed well on this California road course.  In six-career starts Stenhouse has cracked the Top 20 only twice, while finishing outside the Top 25 four times.  It all adds up to a 26.7 average finish.  That last three seasons of road course racing in general have been poor for this driver and team.  Stenhouse has no Top-15 finishes and three crashes with DNF's.  The inconsistency just takes any fantasy racing expectations off the table for this veteran driver. 

Kyle Larson – The Chip Ganassi Racing star is coming off a somewhat disappointing 14th-place finish at Michigan, and unfortunately, we don't believe things will be much easier this week for the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet.  Larson has five-career starts at Sonoma Raceway.  None of those have fetched Top-10 finishes, and the average stands around 18.0.  He has won the last two pole positions at Sonoma, but has improbably finished 26th- and 14th- after starting on the pole.  Larson could have that same speed this weekend, and qualify well.  But the risks of deploying him are pretty high given his record finishing at this twisting circuit.  Keep Larson on the bench this week in weekly lineup leagues and save his starts for the larger ovals.                                  

William Byron – Youth and inexperience are the biggest challenges to any driver attempting to tackle the Sonoma road circuit.  Byron will be making his second-career start at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday.  He qualified well, but raced to a 25th-place finish at Sonoma in his track debut last season.  That was one of what would be a fairly tough season last year racing on these road circuits.  Byron's eighth-place finish would be offset by his crash and 34th-place finish at the Charlotte Roval last fall.  The bottom line is that the jury is still out on Byron's road racing skills.  There's simply not enough statistical sample there to back endorsement.  But that lack of experience is also a troubling fact heading into the Toyota/Save Mart 350.