Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview: Returning to Road Circuits

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

We leave the ovals behind this week and head to the twisting turns as the NASCAR Cup Series will make its second stop of the season on the road course circuit. Sonoma Raceway in California hosts the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this Sunday afternoon. Sonoma Raceway is a 2.52-mile, 12-turn road course with many elevation changes and several different types of corners. The long, relatively straight runs are abruptly ended by many sharp corners, so horsepower and brakes are very important. One lap around Sonoma incurs a total of 160 feet in elevation change, so this course is very hard on the driver and equipment. The 180-degree carrousel turn before the start/finish line provides many passing opportunities to those drivers who can drive in deep and out-brake their opponents. Other than the carrousel turn, the drivers have to be on their toes for any opportunity to make a pass. These characteristics make it a tough course for the oval track drivers, because they will struggle to find passing opportunities. 

This will be NASCAR's first visit to the state of California since February's pre-season Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum. This race signals the beginning of the heart of NASCAR's road course schedule. Over the next five weeks, the series will race on two different road circuits, including the new Chicago street course. Since we haven't been on the twisting turns since COTA in late March, this will be an adjustment race to get the drivers back into a road course state of mind. Those who had successful performances at COTA nearly 3 months ago will have to rediscover their road racing groove this weekend. Additionally, the teams that perform well on the Sonoma circuit Sunday are set up to have additional success in the upcoming road course events of July and August. So we need to pay careful attention to the results of Sunday's Toyota Save Mart 350 going forward.   

Since this is the second of five road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule in 2024, we'll have some recent data to examine but we'll also need to cast an eye towards historical trends at this particular facility. The current hot streaks entering this race will play a very small part, but really this style of track requires a lot of historical data review for making our driver lists. There are certain drivers, really good ones, who hate road course racing and it will show up on the track this Sunday. The drivers who have performed well at Sonoma in recent years have a definite advantage in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The loop stats shown below cover the last 18 races at Sonoma Raceway.

The Sonoma road course has always played well to veteran drivers. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart used to dominate here for years. With the retirement of those stars, other veteran drivers have been locked in a battle for supremacy of this California road course. More recently, veterans such as Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have dominated the twisting turns of the California circuit. We're on the cusp of a possible changing of the guard at Sonoma Raceway. A crop of young drivers like Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Chase Elliott are the next generation of rising stars in the sport, and it will be their task to unseat these veterans at Sonoma. Of those, Elliott is the most likely candidate to break through and win due to his extensive success in this style of racing. However, this is one Cup Series road circuit where Elliott is yet to win. We'll take a look at the stats, Sonoma's history and the road course experts in order to give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The four-time Sonoma winner comes back to the scene of his dominant victory last season. Truex rides into California a strong fourth-place in the championship standings after his good start to the season. The veteran driver has a great road racing resume. Truex has elevated himself to the top of the pile at Sonoma over the past few seasons with three wins and four Top 5's in his last five starts at the California road course. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has been consistent over the past year on NASCAR road circuits with a 57-percent Top-10 rate and respectable 13.3 average finish. When Truex visits Sonoma, he elevates his road racing game even further. He is the driver to beat this Sunday in California.         

William Byron – Byron has elevated himself as the 500 lb. gorilla on road courses since last fall. His last three starts on the winding circuits have netted two wins and one runner-up finish. The victories have come at Watkins Glen (last season) and Circuit of the Americas (this season). The runner-up was sandwiched in between at the Charlotte ROVAL last fall. This sudden surge in performance isn't entirely surprising as Byron has been gradually building momentum on these style tracks for a while now. As it relates to Sonoma Raceway, Byron has just one Top 10 and two Top 15's in his five career starts, so the stats aren't eye popping. However, we believe he and the No. 24 team are prime picks to click this weekend in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Tyler Reddick – The young 23XI Racing driver has had his struggles in his three-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, but Reddick has always qualified well here. His 5.7 average start at Sonoma is a set up for success, he just needs the luck side to follow through this weekend. Reddick's road racing ability is undeniable. Over the past year alone he's collected one victory, one pole position, five front row starts, three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes. The Top-5 percent is a strong 43-percent and the average finish is an equally strong 12.1 over the span. Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team are a home run threat waiting to happen and they've been racing rather well leading up to Sonoma weekend.

Chase Elliott – Elliott will be making his eighth-career Cup Series start at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday. He's never won at the California track, but he's nabbed three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in those starts. The 43-percent Top-5 and 71-percent Top-10 rates speak for themselves. Elliott rides a three-race Sonoma Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action, and he's almost always in the running to win these road racing events. Seven of his 19-career victories have come on road courses (37-percent). That stat combined with his strong 8.7 average finish on these style tracks make them easily his best. In this event one year ago, Elliott led seven laps and raced to a Top-5 finish in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star is a two-time winner at Sonoma Raceway. Aside from Watkins Glen, the Sonoma circuit is Busch's most successful road course. He has six Top-5 finishes in his last eight starts at the California road course and he's led 132 laps for his career at this hilly, rolling facility. His last year on the road circuits have yielded two runner-up finishes, four Top-5 (57-percent) and five Top-10 (71-percent) finishes. That's a very high level of performance for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet. Busch has tons of upside and potential on these style tracks, and it's elevated when we visit the very familiar Sonoma Raceway.  

Kyle Larson – We're accustomed to slotting Larson in the contenders list most weeks, especially on ovals, but he gets a bit of a downgrade when we go road racing. Yes, he does bring race-winning capability to the table (four-career road course wins), however, his Top-10 percentages and average finish are much better on ovals than road circuits. Better consistency. Sonoma Raceway is probably his favorite of these circuits. Larson is a one-time winner there and he's won the pole position at the track a stunning five times in a row between 2017 and 2022. He's led nearly a 100 career laps at the track in the hills of California. In this event one year ago, Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet team scrambled to a respectable eighth-place finish.     

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been a super consistent performer on the winding circuits the past year. Over the last seven road racing events, the veteran driver has nabbed six Top-10 finishes and a dazzling 7.9 average finish. The driver of the No. 17 Ford isn't going to lead a lot of laps nor really challenge for the win, but Buescher will keep close contact with the leaders the full race as his recent production indicates. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has second- and fourth-place finishes in his last two Sonoma Raceway starts. He qualifies well on these style tracks and he has little trouble bringing home good finish. Buescher is a driver to watch closely in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  

Joey Logano – Coming off strong performances in both the All-Star Race and at Gateway last weekend, it could be that the No. 22 Ford team is finally turning the corner on a slow start to the 2024 season. The Penske Racing star will get the "equalizer" of a road circuit thrown his way this weekend, so it becomes less about the car and more about the driver at Sonoma. Logano has been a steady performer over the years at Sonoma Raceway with a respectable 43-percent Top-10 rate and Top 10's in two of his last three starts there. He's been a 57-percent Top-10 finisher over the past year on these winding circuits and has efforts of 10th-, fifth- and 11th-place in his last three at Watkins Glen, the Charlotte ROVAL and COTA.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Sonoma & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Coming off the win at Charlotte and seventh-place finish at Gateway, the No. 20 Toyota team rolls into the hillsides of California with big momentum. Bell has been pretty sharp of late and should carry that into the Toyota/Save Mart 350. His last year of road course racing has yielded a 57-percent Top-10 rate and recent stellar finishes of third- and second-place at Watkins Glen and COTA. Bell has just three-career Cup Series starts at Sonoma Raceway, so he's short on experience here. However, each start has gotten progressively better for the driver of the No. 20 JGR Toyota. Bell's last Sonoma outing one year ago netted personal bests in qualifying position (fourth) and finish with ninth-place.  

Ryan Blaney – The reigning Cup Series champion has always liked Sonoma Raceway, probably more so than most of the road courses of NASCAR's top division. Blaney has four Top-10 finishes in seven starts at Sonoma for a strong 57-percent Top-10 rate. Three of those four Top 10's has come in just his last four starts alone. Last season was a lean campaign for the No. 12 Ford team on the winding tracks, but it has turned more positive in recent showings. Blaney has finishes of ninth-, 12th- and 12th-place in his last three starts on road circuits. Qualifying well has still been the major issue, but he's shown an ability to move through the field to good finishes.  

Ty Gibbs – Despite his lack of experience at NASCAR's top level, Gibbs has been incredibly impressive on road circuits over the past year. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has grabbed three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in those seven races and has hung an impressive 8.6 average finish on the board. His last three starts alone have yielded fifth-, fourth- and third-place finishes with the last of those coming at COTA back in March. The young driver qualifies extremely well on these winding circuits, and that sets him up to collect Top-10 finishes on most occasions. Gibbs will be making just his second-career start at Sonoma Raceway this weekend, but he'll build on the experience of his 18th-place finish last season. He'll be much better this time around.

Ross Chastain – Melon Man has been pretty consistent on the road tracks over the past year. Chastain has gathered four Top-10 finishes (57-percent) and a very sound 12.6 average finish. In this event one year ago he pedaled the No. 1 Chevrolet to a good 10th-place finish in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. That was one of three Top 10's that he's collected at Sonoma Raceway and in just four-career starts. The 75-percent Top-10 rate at Sonoma, albeit a small sample size, is impressive and his 14.3 average finish is sound. Chastain's last road racing effort was a sixth-place qualifying effort followed by 10 laps led and a strong seventh-place finish at COTA back in March. That's a good last look at this style of racing for this driver and team.

Alex Bowman – Bowman had a five-race Top-10 streak snapped at Gateway last weekend when he came home 28th in the Enjoy Illinois 300. However, we predict a rebound to recent form with a start at Sonoma Raceway for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. Bowman has been productive over the last year on the winding tracks with four Top-10 finishes for a sound 57-percent Top-10 rate. His last two starts alone have netted eighth- and fourth-place finishes at the Charlotte ROVAL last fall and at COTA this spring. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has just two Top-10 finishes in seven starts at Sonoma, but his last three attempts have netted reasonable ninth-, 16th- and 15th-place finishes. We believe Bowman could nab a career-best Sonoma finish Sunday in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger is a bit of a dice roll when it comes to Sonoma Raceway. He has a bit of a love-hate affair going on with this track. However, the Kaulig Racing veteran's skills at road racing are unquestionable. Over the past year he's nabbed one win and four Top-10 finishes on these style tracks and accrued a reasonable 13.4 average finish across those seven events. Allmendinger is a very aggressive driver in these style races, and he always goes for the win, which can sometimes result in disaster. Still, the driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet carries a lot of upside (Top-5 and laps led upside) in every road course event that he enters. In this event one year ago, Allmendinger qualified fifth- and finished sixth-place for his Kaulig Racing team.  

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin's road course performance over the past year has been a bit more miss than hit. He brings fast cars to these tracks, but getting the finishes has been tough. For example, Hamlin has grabbed three pole positions in the last year on these style tracks and led 47 combined laps. However, he's collected just one Top-10 finish in the seven starts for an inflated 19.3 average finish. Two of those starts have ended in crashes and DNF's. Hamlin has 17-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, but just seven Top-10 finishes (41-percent).  This is lower than we like to see in a solid fantasy play. Also, he's ran into trouble in his last two starts and Sonoma and finished 31st- and 36th-place. This driver and team have homerun potential but carry far too great a risk.

Bubba Wallace – The 23XI Racing driver has five-career starts at Sonoma. So experience is there, but the results are thin. With just one Top-15 vs. three finishes outside the Top 25, the results are subpar at best. The average finish checks in around 24.4. Recent road course outings the last the last year have yielded a similar 20.9 average finish, and that is a bit better, but the veteran driver still often finishes well back of the Top 10. Wallace was raised racing on short track ovals, and the road courses are still something outside his comfort zone to this point in his Cup Series career. Despite his recent steady performance, we have to recommend benching Wallace this week.    

Brad Keselowski – The incredible success Keselowski has had in 2024 is noteworthy, however, he still has his weaknesses. Road courses are his worst tracks on the circuit in terms of Top-10 percentage and average finish. They rank a distant last compared to his production on intermediate and larger ovals, where a bulk of his career wins and Top 10's has occurred. Road Racing in the last year hasn't been kind to the owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford. Keselowski has just one Top 15 in his last seven road course starts. The average finish works out to 23.0 and the Top-10 percentage is a lowly 0-percent. Sonoma Raceway hasn't held much success for him over the years either. In 13-career starts Keselowski has just three Top-10 finishes. His career 16.1 average finish at the California course isn't that bad, but it's not exceptional either.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has been reasonably good in recent intermediate oval and superspeedway races, but there's reason for caution this weekend at the California road circuit. Stenhouse is less than exceptional on these winding circuits. In his last seven road course starts he has just one Top-10 finish vs. four finishes outside the Top-25. His average finish during that span is at 21.9. His 10-career starts at Sonoma have yet to yield a Top-10 finish and register an unsavory 25.5 average finish. Given all the evidence we have to be very reserved about Stenhouse's chances in California this weekend.