Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview: Returning to Road Circuits

We leave the ovals behind this week and head to the twisting turns as the NASCAR Cup Series will make its second stop of the season on the road course circuit. Sonoma Raceway in California hosts the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this Sunday afternoon. Sonoma Raceway is a 2.52-mile, 12-turn road course with many elevation changes and several different types of corners. The long, relatively straight runs are abruptly ended by many sharp corners, so horsepower and brakes are very important. One lap around Sonoma incurs a total of160 feet in elevation change, so this course is very hard on the driver and equipment. The 180-degree paperclip turn before the start/finish line provides many passing opportunities to those drivers who can drive in deep and out-brake their opponents. Other than the paperclip turn, the drivers have to be on their toes for any opportunity to make a pass. These characteristics make it a tough course for the oval track drivers, because they will struggle to find passing opportunities. 

This will be NASCAR's first visit to the state of California since February's Auto Club Speedway event. This race signals the beginning of the heart of NASCAR's road course schedule. Over the next 11 weeks, the series will race on four different road circuits, including the new Chicago street course. Since we haven't been on the twisting turns since COTA in late March, this will be an adjustment race to get the drivers back into a road course state of mind. Those who had successful performances at COTA nearly 3 months ago will have to rediscover their road racing groove this weekend. Additionally, the teams that perform well on the Sonoma circuit Sunday are set up to have additional success in the upcoming road course events of July and August. So we need to pay careful attention to the results of Sunday's Toyota Save Mart 350 going forward.   

Since this is the second of six road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule in 2023, we'll have some recent data to examine but we'll also need to cast an eye towards historical trends at this particular facility. The current hot streaks entering this race will play a very small part, but really this style of track requires a lot of historical data review for making our driver lists. There are certain drivers, really good ones, who hate road course racing and it will show up on the track this Sunday. The drivers who have performed well at Sonoma in recent years have a definite advantage in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The loop stats shown below cover the last 17 races at Sonoma Raceway.

The Sonoma road course has always played well to veteran drivers. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart dominated here for years. With the retirement of those stars, other veteran drivers have been locked in a battle for supremacy of this California road course. More recently, veterans such as Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick have dominated the twisting turns of the California circuit. However, last season's dominant win by Daniel Suarez put the then 30-year-old driver in victory lane at Sonoma. The Trackhouse Racing driver joined Kyle Larson who was the 2021 Sonoma winner and 28-years-old at the time, in setting a younger trend at this track. A crop of young drivers like Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Chase Elliott are the next generation of rising stars in the sport, and it will be their task to continue this youth movement trend at Sonoma Raceway. Of those, Elliott is the most likely candidate to break through and win due to his extensive success in this style of racing. However, this is one Cup Series road circuit where Elliott is yet to win. We'll take a look at the stats, Sonoma's history and the road course experts in order to give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Tyler Reddick – The young 23XI Racing driver in many ways has supplanted Chase Elliott as the premier road course driver, at least right now, when NASCAR visits these winding tracks. Reddick has grabbed three victories since last season in the last seven road course events and led 120 laps on these tracks. One of the three wins came earlier this season at Circuit of the Americas when Reddick sat on the outside pole and dominated to win at COTA with his new No. 45 Toyota team. In this event one year ago, Reddick qualified extremely well and rolled off fifth on the grid. However, he'd run into trouble that day and finish outside the Top 35. We believe Reddick will make a stunning and masterful return to Sonoma Raceway this Sunday.   

Martin Truex Jr. – The three-time Sonoma winner comes back to the scene of his dominant back-to-back victories of 2018-19. Truex rides into California a strong fourth-place in the championship standings after his good start to the season. The veteran driver has a great road racing resume. Truex has two wins and four Top 5's in his last six starts at the California road course. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has been equally strong at Watkins Glen, collecting one win and four Top-5 finishes there since the 2017 season. Some of the newer road circuits to the Cup Series have been nothing but struggles for Truex, but the two long-term road tracks (Sonoma & Watkins Glen) have been quite to his liking. We expect the Joe Gibbs Racing star to elevate his game in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.       

Chase Elliott – Elliott will be making his seventh-career Cup Series start at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday. He's never won at the California track, but he's nabbed two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in those starts. In just his last two starts alone, Elliott has led a combined 39 laps at this facility. In this event two seasons ago, the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet would register a career-best finish at Sonoma when he finished runner-up to Kyle Larson by less than one-second. The Hendrick Motorsports star is still seeking his first win of 2023, and this weekend could easily be it. Seven of his 18-career victories have come on road courses (39-percent). That stat combined with his strong 8.2 average finish on these style tracks make them easily his best.  

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star is a two-time winner at Sonoma Raceway. Aside from Watkins Glen, the Sonoma circuit is Busch's most successful road course. He has six Top-10 finishes in his last seven starts at the California road course and he's led 115 laps for his career at this hilly, rolling facility. His last two starts on these style tracks have yielded third- and second-place finishes (Charlotte ROVAL and COTA). The runner-up came earlier this season at Circuit of the Americas with his new RCR No. 8 team. That's a good last look at this style of racing heading to California this week. Considering that Busch is coming off the momentum of his win at Gateway this past week, he has to be considered very dangerous in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has been a bit of a hit-or-miss driver over the past year on road circuits, but when he visited Sonoma Raceway last season, the driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet was dealing straight heat. Suarez would qualify well and quickly work his way into the lead. He would stay on the point for 47 of 110 laps and frustrate attempts by multiple drivers to run him down. In the end, the veteran would stretch out to a 3.8-second victory over Chris Buescher that day. Suarez will be hard-pressed to duplicate that in an encore performance, but we're willing to bet he picked up enough to register a Top-10 finish. He grabbed Top 5's last season at both Road America and Watkins Glen to follow up his Sonoma win, so clearly there's some road racing talent in Suarez.     

Austin Cindric – This has been an incredibly challenging season for Cindric. However, toss that out the window this weekend as the NASCAR Cup Series visits their second road course of the season. The Penske Racing youngster has been an assassin in road racing over the past year. Cindric has two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in the last seven events on these style tracks with a sterling 8.9 average finish to his credit. That includes his sixth-place effort at COTA earlier this season and fifth-place finish in this event one year ago. Cindric made quite a reputation for himself in road racing in the Xfinity Series, grabbing five wins and 6.3 average finish over his five-season career in that division of NASCAR. He'll be a face among the Top 10 Sunday in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Ross Chastain – Chastain has been mired in a bit of a slump of late. He enters Sonoma weekend in a three-race Top-10 drought and looking for any boost he can find. This road course race is just what the doctor ordered for the No. 1 Chevrolet team right now. Chastain won at COTA last season in an amazing performance and he grabbed a Top-5 finish in his defense of that win earlier this season in Austin. Those performances are part of a three Top-5 and four Top-10 resume that the Trackhouse Racing driver has compiled over the last year on these winding circuits. Chastain's start at Sonoma Raceway last season netted a strong seventh-place finish, which was the second of two Top-10 finishes in three-career starts at the California circuit.     

Chris Buescher – The launch of the next generation stock car has done more to boost Buescher's performance on road circuits than perhaps any other driver in the Cup Series field. Prior to its launch, the veteran driver had just two-career Top 10's in 20 road course starts. In the last seven races with the new car, Buescher has posted six Top-10 finishes in seven races for an amazing 8.9 average finish over the past year. In this event at Sonoma one year ago, the Roush Fenway Keselowski veteran led 4 laps and raced to an impressive runner-up finish. He's kept that hot streak going this year with his drive from 32nd on the grid to a strong eighth-place finish at COTA earlier this season. Buescher looks like a strong bet to crack the Top 10 at Sonoma Raceway.                                                                                                                    

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Sonoma & solid upside

Kyle Larson – We're accustomed to slotting Larson in the contenders list most weeks, especially on ovals, but he gets a bit of a downgrade when we go road racing. Yes, he does bring race-winning capability to the table (four-career road course wins), however, his Top-10 percentages and average finish are much better on ovals than road circuits. Better consistency. The last year of road course racing for the No. 5 team is a good example… one win, two Top-5 and three finishes outside the Top-25 which amounts to a 29-percent Top-10 rate and 18.9 average finish. Larson has won the pole at Sonoma Raceway an amazing five-straight seasons but has only cracked the Top 10 twice in those five starts from the pole. Use him in your fantasy teams with the acceptance of some risk.    

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is a one-time Sonoma winner (2017) and his 11-career Top-10 finishes register a respectable 52-percent Top-10 rate at the California track. In this event one year ago, the veteran driver pedaled the No. 4 Ford to a strong fourth-place finish in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The Stewart Haas Racing star has been reasonably good on the road circuits over the past year since the transition to the new generation stock car. Harvick has three Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes in those seven events for a cool 12.1 average finish across the span. Most recently Harvick was a respectable 13th-place at Circuit of the Americas in late-March. He should fetch good returns Sunday afternoon at Sonoma Raceway.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster has been steadily improving the past several weeks. Blaney has scored six Top 10's in the last seven events and elevated his position in the point standings from 10th to first-place over that time.  He comes into this Toyota/Save Mart 350 arguably on fire. While road course racing has been a mixed bag for the No. 12 Ford team the past year, Blaney does possess that gift. He won at the Charlotte ROVAL a few seasons ago and he does crack the Top 10 on these winding tracks at a career 46-percent rate. Blaney has a liking for the Sonoma circuit as his stats outline. Four of his six-career starts at this track have netted Top-10 finishes (67-percent). That's well above his career rate on all road tracks.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin's road course performance over the past year has been a bit hit-or-miss but it's incredibly difficult to look beyond what he's done in the past. He's grabbed seven-career Top-10 finishes at Sonoma Raceway (44-percent), but five of those have come in his last six starts at the rolling, winding track. Hamlin has also led 102 laps at the facility with the majority of those coming since the 2016 season. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is also a one-time winner at Watkins Glen as well as a 41-percent Top-10 finisher on Cup Series road circuits. This veteran Joe Gibbs Racing driver has close to 50-career starts on these style tracks, so Hamlin is not short on experience when it comes to road racing.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger is a bit of a dice roll when it comes to Sonoma Raceway. He has a bit of a love-hate affair going on with this track. However, the Kaulig Racing veteran's skills at road racing are unquestionable. Over the past year he's nabbed two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on these style tracks and accrued a reasonable 15.4 average finish across those seven events. Allmendinger is a very aggressive driver in these style races, and he always goes for the win, which can sometimes result in disaster. Still, the driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet carries a lot of upside (Top-5 and laps led upside) in every road course event that he enters.

Michael McDowell – Coming off the strong ninth-place finish at Gateway this past week, there's reasonable hope that McDowell is turning his slow season around. The Front Row Motorsports veteran is a good road racing performer, so Sonoma is a good follow up track to his second Top-10 finish of the season this past week. McDowell has 10-career Cup Series starts at Sonoma Raceway and he earned his career-best finish there in this event one year ago. He pedaled the No. 34 Ford to fourth-place qualifying effort and brilliant third-place finish. That was much the story of his road racing performance of last year. McDowell has earned one Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes for a sharp 11.0 average finish on these style tracks.  

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Bubba Wallace – The 23XI Racing driver has four-career starts at Sonoma. So experience is there, but the results are thin. With just one Top-15 vs. three finishes outside the Top 25, the results are subpar at best. The average finish checks in around 26.3. Recent road course outings the last the last year have yielded a similar 27.6 average finish, and that includes his five DNF's in the last seven road course races. Wallace was raised racing on short track ovals, and the road courses are still something outside his comfort zone to this point in his Cup Series career. Despite his recent hot streak, we have to recommend benching Wallace this week.    

Brad Keselowski – The better success Keselowski has had in 2023 is noteworthy, however, he still has his weaknesses. Road courses are his worst tracks on the circuit in terms of Top-10 percentage and average finish. They rank a distant last compared to his production on intermediate and larger ovals, where a bulk of his career wins and Top 10's has occurred. Road Racing in the last year hasn't been kind to the owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford. Keselowski has just one Top 10 in his last seven road course starts. The average finish works out to 20.7 and the Top-10 percentage is a lowly 14-percent. Sonoma Raceway hasn't held much success for him over the years either. In 12-career starts Keselowski has just three Top-10 finishes. His career 16.1 average finish at the California course isn't that bad, but it's not exceptional either.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The Daytona 500 winner has been pretty strong in recent intermediate oval and short track races, but there's reason for caution this weekend at the California road circuit. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran is less than exceptional on these winding circuits. In Stenhouse's last seven road course starts he has just one Top-10 finish vs. two finishes outside the Top-25. His average finish during that span is at 19.3. In his start in this event one year ago, Stenhouse qualified 32nd on the grid and finished a distant 25th in last season's Toyota/Save Mart 350. His nine-career starts at Sonoma have yet to yield a Top-10 finish and register an unsavory 27.0 average finish. Given all the evidence we have to be very reserved about Stenhouse's chances in California this weekend.

Aric Almirola – Coming off a pedestrian 19th-place finish at WWTR last Sunday, we have to reconsider Almirola's potential at Sonoma Raceway. While short tracks have been kind to the driver of the No. 10 Ford over the years, road circuits haven't been as kind. Almirola's 10-career starts at Sonoma Raceway have only netted two Top 10's (20-percent) and his average finish of 19.8 isn't inspiring at all. Over the past year the Stewart Haas Racing veteran has just two Top-15 finishes vs. four finishes outside the Top-25 on these style tracks for an uninspiring 24.7 average finish. Almirola is a driver to bench in weekly lineup leagues this weekend.