South Point 400 Preview: Round of 8 in the Chase

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

The first race in the Round of 8 of the Chase is on tap this weekend. NASCAR had recently used the date at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to kick off the Chase for the Cup playoffs, but four seasons ago they moved it to deeper in the playoffs. The stars of NASCAR will head to Sin City and Las Vegas for the South Point 400 and to continue the battle of whittling down the playoff field as we approach the championship round at Phoenix. 

This will be the second visit of 2024 to the Las Vegas oval. We will have good data from that event earlier in the season to look back on, and we'll take full advantage of it. We'll need to take into account several factors this weekend. Firstly, we'll need to examine the current hot streaks, as the trending drivers should carry their streaks of success or struggles into Las Vegas. Secondly, we'll need to take a look at how the drivers have performed on similar ovals this season. The intermediate oval is the most widely used track on the circuit, so we have plenty of data to examine. Lastly, we'll take an in-depth look at the race earlier this season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That data will have some relevance for this weekend, even though that event was held way back in early March. The crew chiefs' notes should be very helpful for the teams that finished well that weekend to repeat their success this weekend.

LVMS is one of many intermediate ovals on the circuit, so we have lots of data to fall back on at this point in the season. Since NASCAR's top division raced earlier this season at the Vegas oval, we'll get the opportunity to look back on the race earlier this year with a discriminating eye. Considering that historical data is so valuable in developing our weekly driver list, we'll take a quick look at these track specific statistics. The loop stats in the table below span the last 19 years of competition at this 1.5-mile oval. Let's take a look at the loop stats for the last 25 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for some background on the drivers.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway had been a track of parity for much of its history. We've seen different racing camps and different manufacturers dominate at the Nevada oval in the past. Chevrolet, however, seems to have risen above the fray. Drivers from this manufacturer have won four of the last six Las Vegas races and have halted Ford and Toyota's run at the desert oval. That trend is one we need to pay attention to this weekend.

In March the NASCAR Cup Series visited the Nevada desert and Kyle Larson rolled into victory lane for the second-straight time at the 1.5-mile tri-oval and third overall. With Larson picking up that victory Chevrolet remained squarely atop the heap at LVMS. However, before we cede the trophy to a Chevrolet camp this weekend we need to realize that contenders will come from several different stables for Sunday's race. Toyota and Ford have both won in the last six Las Vegas races, and Toyota drivers collected a pair of Top-5 finishes here in March, but none were lucky enough to come away with the win. Ford drivers are clearly last in the manufacturer pecking order at Vegas with only three Top-10 finishers in March and a scant 2 laps led across those three drivers. Sunday's Playoff battle is shaping up to be a showdown between Chevrolet and Toyota, with a slim chance of any Ford intervention. Here are our picks for fantasy racing success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this Sunday afternoon's South Point 400. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson turned in a dominant performance at the ROVAL and collected his second-career win at the track last Sunday. He and the Hendrick team have a shot at staying on a roll this week in Sin City. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been quite strong this season on the cookie cutter ovals and his 338 laps led and two victories (Las Vegas and Kansas) bear this out. Larson is a three-time Las Vegas winner having won the last two events at the oval in addition to his three-career runner-up finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His 75-percent Top-10 rate and 9.3 average finish at LVMS is a jaw-dropping statistic and really shows his consistency and excellence at this track. This is a race that could propel Larson towards the championship at Phoenix.   

William Byron – Byron did more than enough to assure his playoff advancement at the Charlotte ROVAL last weekend. He battled to an impressive third-place finish extending his current Top-3 streak to three races, and now will carry that momentum into the Round of 8 and Las Vegas. Byron can now focus and set his sights high for a great Las Vegas performance. Intermediate ovals have been strong tracks for the No. 24 team in 2024. Byron has three Top-5 finishes (42-percent), 90 laps led and carries a strong 9.6 average finish on these size tracks this season. His most recent outing netted a brilliant runner-up finish a few weeks ago at Kansas. As to Byron's Las Vegas history, he's overcome a slow start at this track to post a win and Top 10's in his last three visits to Sin City. He'll be one of the top contenders to win the South Point 400.

Christopher Bell – Bell's runner-up finish at the ROVAL has put him in prime position to be racing for the championship at Phoenix in a few weeks. For his follow-up act we have Las Vegas Motor Speedway up next and what should be another strong performance for the No. 20 Toyota team. The young driver won at Charlotte earlier this season and rides a four-race intermediate oval Top-10 streak into Sunday's action in Las Vegas. Bell won the pole and finished a brilliant runner-up in this event one year ago. He cracks the Top 10 at LVMS at a decent 44-percent. With the championship within reach, we should see a very motivated Bell and No. 20 Toyota team this weekend.

Ross Chastain – Chastain comes to Las Vegas eliminated from the playoffs but he could be the big spoiler this Sunday. He's had some strong performances of late, but he's also been battling some consistency issues. Chastain will look to continue impressing on a friendlier intermediate oval in Sunday's South Point 400. The Trackhouse Racing veteran won at the similar oval in Kansas a few weeks ago and sports a strong 57-percent Top-10 rate on these tracks in 2024. Chastain's recent Las Vegas Motor Speedway performance has been quite impressive. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has four Top-5 finishes in his last five starts at the Nevada oval. That includes over 150 laps led during the span. Chastain could be the bolt from the blue this Sunday afternoon.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has advanced in the Chase, but he's got some work to do if he plans to be a participant in the Championship 4 at Phoenix. He'll look to up the level of performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon. Intermediate ovals this season have yielded two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes for a respectable 14.7 average finish for Hamlin. LVMS is not one of his better cookie cutter tracks, but he's come on strong there in recent performances. Hamlin won this event three years ago and he boasts 408-career laps led in Vegas, most of those since the 2020 season. His three Top-10 finishes in his last four Vegas starts have boosted his Top-10 rate at the track to a respectable 52-percent. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will be racing among the leaders this Sunday afternoon.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney rides a two-race Las Vegas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action and that has only bolstered a good career record at LVMS. The Penske Racing star has posted four Top 5's on the intermediate oval circuit and most recently finished an impressive fourth-place at Kansas Speedway. He's never won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but Blaney has been incredibly consistent. His six Top-5 and 10 Top-10 finishes in 16 starts equate to strong 38- and 63-percent rates. Blaney always seems to be racing among the leaders in these Vegas events. With the 2024 championship on the line, it would not be surprising at all to see this driver and team elevate their game in the South Point 400.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick made it convincingly into the Round of 8 on points, and now he has a new lease on his playoff life. Seven months removed from his brilliant runner-up finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the 23XI youngster will look to follow that up in Sunday's South Point 400. Reddick comes to Las Vegas and continues to look to finish this season strong. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has Top 10's in five of his last six starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and a runner-up performance in the event there earlier this season. Reddick has been a very capable driver on the intermediate ovals this season with three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes. The 57-percent Top-10 rate on the cookie cutter ovals speaks to his consistency on these style tracks.      

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet was shockingly eliminated from advancing in the playoffs after a car weight disparity at the ROVAL last Sunday. Bowman will look put that disappointment behind him and rebound with a good performance in the South Point 400. The one-time Las Vegas winner won this event two years ago and has cracked the Top 10 in two of his last four starts in Sin City. His career numbers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway are still lagging overall, but his recent level of performance has been quite encouraging. Bowman has been a 57-percent Top-10 finisher on the cookie cutter ovals this season and that's a reassuring statistic. Despite Bowman not participating in the playoffs, he should be a steady performer in this 400-mile battle.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Las Vegas & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – Despite some recent struggles, Truex brings some value to the table this week at Vegas. From a fantasy perspective, he's not performing well right now but he has been strong this season on the lower banked intermediate ovals. Truex is a two-time Las Vegas winner and riding an eight-race Vegas Top-10 streak into this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star recorded a seventh-place finish earlier this season at LVMS and most recently nabbed a strong third-place finish at the similar oval in Kansas. Truex's strong 64-percent Top-10 rate at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and stout 9.8 average finish across 25-career starts is difficult to ignore, and we suggest you don't.    

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has had quite a season on the cookie cutter ovals. The young driver of the No. 54 Toyota has claimed one pole position, 121 laps led, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on the 1.5-mile tracks. Most recently Gibbs put it on the outside pole at Kansas and wheeled his way to a strong fifth-place finish in the Hollywood Casino 400. Earlier this season the Joe Gibbs Racing prodigy claimed a strong fifth-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Pennzoil 400. That was Gibbs' first-career Top 5 at the Nevada oval, and we're willing to bet it won't be his last. This driver and team are ones to watch closely in Sunday's South Point 400.    

Joey Logano – Logano has been one of the more successful drivers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway the last few seasons. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has a strong 9.9 average finish at the oval, and he's led well over 500 laps there in just his last 17 starts. Logano has three-career victories in the Nevada desert and they've all come since 2019. The last of those wins came in this event two years ago. Intermediate ovals have been a bit of a weakness for the No. 22 Penske Racing team this season, but he still has one win and two Top-10 finishes this year on the 1.5-mile ovals. Logano skated into the Round of 8 in the Chase playoffs and will not spoil this opportunity. This veteran driver will make his presence felt at the front of the field this Sunday afternoon. 

Brad Keselowski – The three-time Las Vegas winner has been somewhat inconsistent on intermediate ovals this season so we've moved him to the sleepers list for this one. Keselowski has over 350-career laps led at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and his 13 Top-10 finishes rank at a strong 59-percent Top-10 rate. The average finish over 22 starts checks in at a solid 11.6. It's clear that the driver of the No. 6 Ford loves the progressive banking and wide sweeping corners of the track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Keselowski finished 13th in March's Pennzoil 400 at LVMS, we're willing to bet he does even better in Sunday's second installment of the season at the Nevada oval.

Chase Elliott – With five Top-10 and seven Top-15 finishes on intermediate ovals this season, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been one of the most consistent performers in the series on the mid-sized tracks. The average finish for the year is checking in around a stellar 7.9, so we've slotted this driver and team in the sleepers list this week. Elliott has never won at the Las Vegas oval, but he did finish runner-up in this event three years ago. Las Vegas Motor Speedway isn't one of his better cookie cutter tracks with just a 36-percent Top-10 rate and pedestrian 18.6 average finish. However, Elliott has been pretty sharp on these style tracks this season and is thick in the battle for the championship, which should provide some extra motivation.  

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been a reasonably good performer on the intermediate ovals this season with an 11th-place finish recently at Kansas Speedway to underscore this fact. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran hasn't been a career-long performer at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he has been reasonably good in recent starts. Buescher finished 11th-place in this event one year ago. However, he ran into troubles and crashed in the March installment at LVMS. Buescher will look to redeem himself this Sunday in the South Point 400. There are no playoff implications with this driver and team, but there is pride and the hope to build some momentum heading into the off-season.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week 

Josh Berry – Among full-time Cup Series drivers, Berry has been about the worst performing on the cookie cutter ovals in 2024. The Stewart Haas Racing driver has just one Top-10 finish in seven starts (14-percent) on these 1.5-mile ovals and a disappointing 25.1 average finish. Three of those seven starts have ended in DNF's. Berry has just two-career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and he's managed only a 24.5 average finish in those attempts. It's best to pass up the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing Ford team in this event and focus on better returns from other drivers in the pool.    

Kyle Busch – Slotting Busch this week was incredibly challenging. He's come off a recent rough patch of performance but a reasonable Top-15 finish at the ROVAL this past week. We have to put Busch in the slow down list this week taking into consideration the relative risks, but also acknowledging his possible upside for the South Point 400. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has rewarded the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet with one win, 12 Top-5 and 15 Top-10 finishes (58-percent) over the years. However, Busch has been inconsistent at best this season on the cookie cutter tracks. In fact, his worst intermediate oval outing to-date was his 26th-place finish at Las Vegas earlier this season.

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time champion will be making one of his part-time starts this weekend in the Legacy Motor Club No. 84 Toyota. Things have not gone well for Johnson in his 2024 part-time schedule. He's managed no Top-25 finishes and an average finish of 31.6. Johnson's last outing on an intermediate oval came just a few short weeks ago. He struggled and finished 36th-place at Kansas Speedway, 10 laps down to the leaders. We love to see Johnson competing as it's very nostalgic, however, his ability to drive the newest generation stock car is in question. So it's best to avoid any fantasy racing aspirations with Johnson despite his four-career Las Vegas victories and 11.6 average finish at the track.  

Michael McDowell – McDowell has had his ups-and-downs this season, but intermediate ovals have mostly been on that down side. With just two Top 10's (29-percent) and a 20.7 average finish, the Front Row Motorsports veteran has been anything but consistent on these size tracks. In 21-career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway McDowell has never cracked the Top 10 and has a poor 29.1 average finish.  His start there earlier this year netted only a 25th-place finish in the Pennzoil 400. Considering that McDowell very recently finished 29th-place at the similarly sized/configured Kansas Speedway, we believe he's a driver to avoid in Las Vegas.