South Point 400 Preview: Round of 8 in the Chase

The first race in the Round of 8 of the Chase is on tap this weekend. NASCAR had recently used the date at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to kick off the Chase for the Cup playoffs, but three seasons ago they moved it to deeper in the playoffs. The stars of NASCAR will head to Sin City and Las Vegas for the South Point 400 and to continue the battle of whittling down the playoff field as we approach the championship round at Phoenix. 

This will be the second visit of 2023 to the Las Vegas oval. We will have good data from that event earlier in the season to look back on, and we'll take full advantage of it. We'll need to take into account several factors this weekend. Firstly, we'll need to examine the current hot streaks, as the trending drivers should carry their streaks of success or struggles into Las Vegas. Secondly, we'll need to take a look at how the drivers have performed on similar ovals this season. The intermediate oval is the most widely used track on the circuit, so we have plenty of data to examine. Lastly, we'll take an in-depth look at the race earlier this season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That data will have some relevance for this weekend, even though that event was held way back in early March. The crew chiefs' notes should be very helpful for the teams that finished well that weekend to repeat their success this weekend.

LVMS is one of many intermediate ovals on the circuit, so we have lots of data to fall back on at this point in the season. Since NASCAR's top division raced earlier this season at the Vegas oval, we'll get the opportunity to look back on the race earlier this year with a discriminating eye. Considering that historical data is so valuable in developing our weekly driver list, we'll take a quick look at these track specific statistics. The loop stats in the table below span the last 18 years of competition at this 1.5-mile oval. Let's take a look at the loop stats for the last 24 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for some background on the drivers.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway had been a track of parity for much of its history. We've seen different racing camps and different manufacturers dominate at the Nevada oval in the past. Chevrolet, however, seems to have risen above the fray. Drivers from this manufacturer have won four of the last six Las Vegas races, and have halted Ford and Toyota's run at the desert oval. That trend is one we need to pay attention to this weekend.

In March the NASCAR Cup Series visited the Nevada desert and William Byron rolled into victory lane for the first time in his career at the 1.5-mile tri-oval. With Byron picking up that victory Chevrolet remained squarely atop the heap at LVMS. However, before we cede the trophy to a Chevrolet camp this weekend we need to realize that contenders will come from several different stables for Sunday's race. Toyota and Ford have both won in the last four Las Vegas races, and Toyota drivers collected a pair of Top-5 finishes here in March, but none were lucky enough to come away with the win. Ford drivers are clearly last in the manufacturer pecking order at Vegas with only two Top-10 finishers in March and a scant 14 laps led across all their drivers. Sunday's Playoff battle is shaping up to be a showdown between Chevrolet and Toyota, with a slim chance of any Ford intervention. Here are our picks for fantasy racing success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this Sunday afternoon's South Point 400. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – Byron did more than enough to assure his playoff advancement at the Charlotte ROVAL last weekend. He battled to an impressive runner-up finish, and now will carry that momentum into the Round of 8 and Las Vegas. Byron can now focus and set his sights high for a great Las Vegas performance. Intermediate ovals have been strong tracks for the No. 24 team in 2023. Byron has three victories (including the earlier race at Vegas), 302 laps led and five Top-5 finishes (71-percent). His most recent outing netted a win a couple weeks ago in Texas. As to Byron's Las Vegas history, he's overcome a slow start at this track to post a win and Top 10's in three of his last five visits to Sin City. He'll be the man to beat in the South Point 400.

Kyle Larson – Larson was pointed towards a possible Top-5 finish last week at the ROVAL, but misfortune struck the No. 5 team and the veteran driver slipped to a subpar 13th-place finish. Larson and the Hendrick team have a shot at some redemption this week in Sin City. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been quite consistent this season on the cookie cutter ovals and his 351 laps led and three Top 5's (43-percent) bear this fact out. Larson is a one-time Las Vegas winner (2021) and he finished runner-up there earlier this season in addition to his three other second-place finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His 71-percent Top-10 rate at LVMS is a jaw-dropping statistic and really shows his consistency and excellence at this track. This is a race that could get Larson back in the win column. 

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has advanced in the Chase, but he's got some work to do if he plans to be a participant in the Championship 4 at Phoenix. He'll look to up the level of performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon. Intermediate ovals this season have yielded one win, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes for a strong 10.6 average finish for Hamlin. LVMS is not one of his better cookie cutter tracks, but he's come on strong there in recent performances. Hamlin won this event two years ago and he boasts 369-career laps led in Vegas, most of those since the 2020 season. His four Top-5 finishes in his last six Vegas starts have boosted his Top-10 rate at the track to a respectable 48-percent. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will be racing among the leaders this Sunday afternoon.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick may have just skated into the Round of 8 on points, but now he has a new lease on his playoff life. Five weeks removed from his victory at Kansas Speedway, the 23XI youngster racked up 27 laps led and a strong sixth-place finish on the Charlotte ROVAL last Sunday. Now Reddick comes to Las Vegas and continues to look to finish this season strong. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has Top 10's in three of his last four starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and a pole position with 32 laps led in this event one year ago. Reddick has been a very capable driver on the intermediate ovals this season with one win, 92 laps led and four Top-10 finishes. Most of those laps led have come in his last outing at Texas. That's a good last look on a mid-sized oval going into Las Vegas.     

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – Slotting Busch this week was incredibly challenging. He's come off a recent rough patch of performance but a strong third-place finish at the ROVAL this past week. He's been eliminated from the playoffs, so the pressure is off to a good degree. We have to put Busch in the solid plays list this week taking into consideration the relative risks, but also acknowledging his upside for the South Point 400. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has rewarded the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet with one win, 11 Top-5 and 14 Top-10 finishes (58-percent) over the years. Busch has five Top 10's in his last six Vegas starts coming into this weekend's action. He's been a steady intermediate oval performer this season with a 57-percent Top-10 rate on the 1.5-mile tracks.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has had a rough time in his last three Las Vegas outings, but he still maintains high-performing career stats at this track. This driver and team have figured a few things out since the series' last visit to Sin City. The Penske Racing star won during the summer at Charlotte and he's posted three Top 10's on the intermediate oval circuit since then. He's never won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but Blaney has been incredibly consistent. His five Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes in 14 starts equate to strong 36- and 57-percent rates. Blaney always seems to be racing among the leaders in these Vegas events. With the 2023 championship on the line, it would not be surprising at all to see this driver and team elevate their game in the South Point 400.

Joey Logano – Logano has been one of the more successful drivers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway the last few seasons. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has a strong 9.9 average finish at the oval, and he's led well over 500 laps there in just his last 15 starts. Logano has three-career victories in the Nevada desert and they've all come since 2019. The last of those wins came in this event one year ago. Intermediate ovals have been a bit of a weakness for the No. 22 Penske Racing team this season, but he still has one win and three Top-10 finishes this year on the 1.5-mile ovals. Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, this veteran driver will make his presence felt at the front of the field this Sunday afternoon. 

Brad Keselowski – The three-time Las Vegas winner has been consistent on intermediate ovals this season with four Top-10 finishes (57-percent) and 94 laps led. That performance and consistency allowed him to have a much improved season and make a decent drive into the playoffs. Keselowski has over 300-career laps led at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and his 12 Top-10 finishes rank at a strong 60-percent Top-10 average. It's clear that the driver of the No. 6 Ford loves the progressive banking and wide sweeping corners of the track at Las Vegas. Keselowski's good momentum should continue on into the South Point 400 at the remaining events in the 2023 calendar. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Las Vegas & solid upside

Chase Elliott – With two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes on intermediate ovals this season, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been respectable but not eye-popping on the mid-sized tracks. The average finish for the year is checking in around a pedestrian 14.2, so we've slotted this driver and team in the sleepers list this week. Elliott has never won at the Las Vegas oval, but he did finish runner-up in this event two years ago. With over 175 laps led at LVMS and a decent 42-percent Top-10 rate, Elliott has a slugger's chance. We don't expect to see the No. 9 Chevrolet team racing for the win Sunday afternoon, but Elliott could be one of the few faces among the Top 10 when the checkered flag waves.

Bubba Wallace – Playoff elimination came for Wallace at the conclusion of last Sunday's race at the ROVAL. It was still a good first playoff performance for the 23XI Racing driver and something to build on for 2024. Intermediate ovals have been a huge part of Wallace's success this season. He's grabbed four Top-5 finishes on these ovals and most recently won the pole and led 111 laps at Texas Motor Speedway before finishing third-place that afternoon in Fort Worth. Wallace hasn't had a lot of career success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he did capture a career-best fourth-place finish in the event in March at the track. The notes from that performance should come in pretty handy in Sunday's South Point 400. 

Christopher Bell – Bell's decent performance at the ROVAL has put him in prime position to be racing for the championship at Phoenix in a few weeks. For his follow-up act we have Las Vegas Motor Speedway up next and what should be another strong performance for the No. 20 Toyota team. The young driver finished and impressive fifth-place at Vegas in March in the Pennzoil 400. That was Bell's third Top 10 in his last five visits to Sin City. Intermediate ovals have been kind to the youngster this season with one pole, 72 laps led and four Top-10 finishes. With the championship within reach, we should see a very motivated Bell and No. 20 team this weekend.

Ross Chastain – Chastain comes to Las Vegas eliminated from the playoffs. He had a decent Top-10 outing at the Charlotte ROVAL last weekend, but he's been battling some consistency issues of late. Chastain will look to continue improving on a friendlier intermediate oval in Sunday's South Point 400. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has been inconsistent on these tracks this season with two Top-5 finishes and a subpar 14.6 average finish across the seven events. Chastain's start a few weeks ago at the similar sized Texas Motor Speedway yielded an impressive runner-up finish. That's a very good last look on one of these mid-sized ovals. The Trackhouse Racing star has third-, second- and 12th-place finishes in his last three starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet ended a small slump of inconsistency with his steady eighth-place finish at The ROVAL this past Sunday. Bowman will look to keep the momentum rolling with a good performance in the South Point 400. The one-time Las Vegas winner took the checkered flag in March of 2022 and finished an impressive third-place there in March of this season. Those are two of four Top-10 finishes for Bowman in his last seven Las Vegas starts. That's a very respectable 11.0 average finish across those last seven Vegas efforts. Despite Bowman not participating in the playoffs, he should be a steady performer in this 400-mile battle.

Daniel Suarez – Not only are we expecting this to be an "up weekend" for Ross Chastain, but we expect his Trackhouse Racing teammate be on the positive side as well for the South Point 400. He doesn't have the best record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he did grab one of his two Top 10's in this past March's Pennzoil 400. The notes from that performance will definitely come in handy for the No. 99 Chevrolet team this Sunday. Suarez has been reasonably good on the 1.5-mile ovals in 2023. He has three Top-10 finishes in the seven events with two of those coming in the last three intermediate oval events. We believe Suarez could be a Top-10 challenger at LVMS in the South Point 400.   

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week 

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has had quite a bit of fantasy value in recent weeks. Top-5 finishes have come at Watkins Glen, Bristol and this past weekend at the Charlotte Roval. However, the intermediate ovals have been a puzzle this season that the rookie driver hasn't solved. Gibbs has two DNF's vs. one Top-10 finish in his seven starts on 1.5-mile ovals and his average finish is an inflated 24.6. Most recently, the driver of the No. 54 Toyota qualified well but crashed and finished 33rd-place at Texas Motor Speedway. Gibbs has two-career Cup Series starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and they are a pair of 22nd-place finishes. It would seem wise to pass up this driver and team in weekly lineup leagues this weekend.    

Martin Truex Jr. – Despite riding a seven-race Top-10 drought, Truex was able to advance into the Round of 8 in the Chase. He's largely done that with a lot of the bonus points he earned in the regular season. From a fantasy perspective, he's not performing well right now. Despite being a two-time Las Vegas winner and riding a six-race Vegas Top-10 streak into this weekend, we're calling for the fade for the Joe Gibbs Racing star. Truex has struggled in the second half of the season on the 1.5-mile tracks. Finishes of 29th-, 36th- and 17th-place have been his body of work at Atlanta, Kansas and Texas. Those poor efforts all come in the wake of good starts in the earlier half of the season. In summary, we believe his current cold streak and poor performance on these size tracks are caution signs heading into the South Point 400.   

Austin Dillon – The 2023 season has been arguably the worst campaign of Dillon's 10-season Cup Series career. He's currently ranked 29th in the driver points and his 22.5 average finish thus far is the worst of his full-time Cup career. The intermediate ovals have been a big part of those struggles for the No. 3 RCR team. Dillon has two Top-10 finishes in the seven events to date, but his other finishes have dragged his average down to 22.3 for the season. His last three performances in particular have been poor (21st-, 33rd- and 36th-place) at Atlanta, Kansas and Texas. Dillon has just three-career Top 10's at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His 15.8 average finish is pedestrian at best, but not completely awful. Dillon has been decent at this track, but his recent struggles are very concerning.  

Chris Buescher – In a lot of ways Buescher has been the darling of the 2023 season. His three victories are a career high mark, and his drive into the Round of 8 in the Chase is another career best performance. However, everyone has their weaknesses and for Buescher that has been the mid-sized ovals in 2023. He's scored just one of his 15 Top-10 finishes this season on cookie cutter tracks (Charlotte) and the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran is carrying a bloated 19.6 average finish on these tracks into Las Vegas this week. His career numbers at LVMS aren't very encouraging either with just one Top 10 in 13-career starts (8-percent) and an elevated 17.8 average finish. Buescher's start here in March of this year only netted the No. 17 Ford team an unimpressive 21st-place finish in the Pennzoil 400.