Season Finale 500 Preview: Crowning the Champion

The finale of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season has arrived.  After 35 events of spectacular crashes, dominating performances and surprise comebacks, we have finally reached the championship-crowning moment of the sport. The drama has been building all season, and even more so the last several weeks of the Chase. For several years NASCAR has crowned its champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but last season the sanctioning body moved this championship race to Phoenix Raceway. The Phoenix track in Avondale, Ariz., is an irregular "D-shaped" oval with flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees.  The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners.  It is truly a unique facility among those on the NASCAR Cup circuit, and very fitting that it now determines the series champion. 

Since Phoenix Raceway is so unique, we have a driver set for this race that is unique as well.  Certain drivers thrive on the flat oval in the Arizona desert, while some others would rather be just about anywhere else this weekend but Phoenix. However, one theme will be quite clear. Four drivers come to the Arizona desert in a dead-heat for the championship.  The format of the Chase has narrowed the field to Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.  It all comes down to one race for all the marbles and all four drivers start even at 5,000 points.  The stakes and the pressure have never been higher. If anything the last two weeks have shown us at Kansas and Martinsville, this has been a wild Chase for the Cup and anything can happen.  The racing has been highly competitive and the fall out has made for some wild action on the track.  So, if for no other reason that this, tune in on Sunday to see what the last chapter in this wild season holds.

For the first time since March, we're racing at Phoenix Raceway. It was almost eight months ago that the NASCAR Cup Series ran in the mid-afternoon in the Arizona desert. Even though it has been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the Instacart 500 for indicators for this weekend. Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last 16 seasons at the Phoenix oval for some ideas of who will run up front this weekend. Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool. Here are the loop stats for the last 33 races at the Phoenix oval.

If anyone hopes to pull a surprise upset in the championship finale, we need to examine each of the four drivers carefully to make that prediction. Three of our four contenders are past winners at the desert oval. Denny Hamlin (2012 and 2019), Martin Truex Jr. (2021) and Chase Elliott (2020) are past Phoenix winners.  However, we can't count out the red-hot Kyle Larson. He has nine victories this season and is a threat to win anywhere the NASCAR Cup Series visits. Despite being winless at Phoenix Raceway, Larson may have the best odds this weekend of taking the victory and the championship as well. 

These drivers will be joined by short track specialists Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski in racing for the checkers this weekend. All four have been eliminated from the Chase, but they are all looking to end the season with a win and the momentum it would carry into the off-season. One thing is for certain, when the green flag drops at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday afternoon the fireworks will fly as these drivers compete for the big stakes at the desert oval. We'll examine those championship contending teams who are racing for all the marbles this weekend at the Phoenix short track and those who could sneak up and surprise the championship contending teams.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The odds would seem to be against Larson in terms of winning this weekend at Phoenix Raceway.  He is winless in 14 starts at the Arizona short track.  However, if we look back on Larson's career-defining 2021 season we see that eight of his nine wins came as first-time wins at various tracks.  Indeed, the Hendrick Motorsports star checked a lot of boxes over the course of this season.  With all the marbles on the line this Sunday, Larson would seem to have a major advantage.  He has risen to the occasion more than once this year.  Despite being winless at Phoenix, Larson still sports respectable statistics.  He cracks the Top 10 at a 57-percent rate here and has accumulated an average finish of 11.6 in his 14-career starts.  Everyone will be gunning for Larson in this season finale.        

Chase Elliott – In this event one year ago, Elliott out-maneuvered the other championship competitors and grabbed his first-career Phoenix victory and first Cup Series championship.  Fast forward a year and we return to the scene of the crime for the No. 9 Chevrolet team.  Elliott will attempt a successful defense of his 2020 championship this Sunday afternoon.  He was very strong at the Martinsville short track this past weekend, and that bodes well for his chances in this race.  Elliott has one win, one runner-up finish and seven Top 10's in 11-career starts at Phoenix Raceway.  He's led close to 250 laps here in his last three starts alone.  We expect this driver and team to elevate their game in Sunday's Season Finale 500 and for Elliott to possibly win a second-straight NASCAR title.    

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star heads to Phoenix looking to recover from a tough luck Martinsville outing, and keep his slim chances of a championship alive.  This week he visits one of his better ovals in Phoenix Raceway.  Hamlin has great stats at this oval that are worth considering.  He has two victories and 19 Top-10 finishes in his Phoenix resume.  That works out to a strong 59-percent Top-10 rate.  With an impressive average finish of 10.8 at this D-shaped oval, it's clear that the JGR driver likes racing at this tough short track.  Hamlin's been strong in recent Phoenix outings.  He led 33 laps and finished an impressive third-place here in March of this year.  A great performance for Hamlin coupled with some tough luck for the other championship contenders could sneak Hamlin into the 2021 championship crown.   

Martin Truex Jr. – The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team overcame many obstacles to crack the Top 5 at Martinsville this past week and keep the championship a possibility.  Truex will look to capitalize and win a second-career championship this Sunday.  The veteran driver has only 13 Top-10 finishes in his 31-career starts at Phoenix for a marginal 42-percent Top-10 rate.  However, Truex is our last Phoenix Raceway winner with his impressive victory in March's Instacart 500.  He's now cracked the Top 10 in four of his last five starts at this facility.  Three of Truex's four victories this season have come on short tracks, and that's a great footnote to consider heading into the championship-crowing race of the season. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kevin Harvick – Harvick was shockingly eliminated from the playoffs after the Round of 12.  He may not be racing for the NASCAR title, but he'll look to rebound with a win at one of his favorite short tracks this week.  Harvick is winless to this point in the season and you know he'd love to scratch the win column before the 2021 campaign is complete.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has a strong career resume at this Arizona short track.  He has over 1,600 laps led at this facility and nine total victories.  Harvick carries a staggering 16-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into Sunday's Season Finale 500.  That includes his strong sixth-place finish here in March's Instacart 500.  Never underestimate Harvick's ability to win at this race track. 

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star was eliminated from the playoffs last weekend at Martinsville, but he'll be a threat among the championship contenders this weekend.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford Mustang won his second-career Phoenix victory in 2020 and he's cracked the Top-3 in his last three starts at Phoenix Raceway.  During that span he's led a combined 328 laps at the Arizona short track.  Those performances have only added to an impressive career record at Phoenix.  With 14-career Top-10 finishes, Logano cracks the Top 10 at this oval at a strong 56-percent rate.  He rides a five-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action.  Logano may not be racing for the championship, but he'll be battling with those contenders in Sunday's Season Finale 500.

Brad Keselowski – The No. 2 Penske Racing Ford team comes to Phoenix looking to end the season strong.  While a victory is not highly likely, a good performance should be very much in the cards.  Keselowski has Top-10 finishes in 12 of 24 starts at the Arizona short track.  While that's a respectable 50-percent, recent short track outings for this driver and team are a good indicator of potential for Sunday's 312-lap battle at Phoenix Raceway.  Keselowski's hard-fought third-place finish at Martinsville Speedway this past weekend is a great example.  When we look back to March of this year, the veteran driver led 19 laps and finished fourth in the Instacart 500.  We believe he'll be strong again in Sunday's championship-crowning race of 2021.

Kyle Busch – Busch's season on the short tracks has been subpar at best.  However, he showed a glimmer of hope that he'll round out the season strong this weekend with his runner-up finish at Martinsville last week.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a three-time Phoenix winner, and his 22-career Top-10 finishes at the Arizona track check in at a strong 69-percent Top-10 rate.  Bush had a forgettable 25th-place finish in his last start here in March of this year, but we're willing to toss that one out as a clear outlier.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota won't be racing for the championship this weekend, but he'll go for the win and very likely crack the Top 10 in Sunday's 500-mile season finale.   

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Coming off an 11th-place finish at Martinsville Speedway, Blaney is looking for better results coming into the final race of the season. The young driver has Top 10's in four of his last five Phoenix starts and that bodes well heading into this weekend.  Blaney has 11-career starts at Phoenix Raceway with six Top-10 finishes to his credit.  That works out to a strong 55-percent rate and 15.2 average finish for the youngster at the Arizona oval.  The young driver has improved tremendously on short tracks during the last three seasons.  Blaney led 35 laps and finished a respectable 10th-place in March's Instacart 500.  His recent Top-5 performance at the Bristol short track is a good vote of confidence heading into this last race of the season.     

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster nabbed his fourth-career Phoenix Top-10 finish at the Desert Jewel in March of this year.  Byron piloted the No. 24 Chevrolet to an eighth-place finish in the Instacart 500.  He has improved incredibly this season, and should show what he's learned over the last year in Sunday's Season Finale 500.  Byron now rides a three-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action.   This driver and team are rounding out the season strong, and Phoenix Raceway gives Byron another opportunity to outperform and impress.  Coming off a Top-5 finish at Martinsville this past weekend, he has a very high ceiling for Sunday's 312-lap battle at the Arizona short track. 

Christopher Bell – Bell peddled to a subpar 17th-place finish at Martinsville Speedway last weekend.  The effort snapped a four-race Top-10 streak for the No. 20 Toyota team.  Bell should rebound nicely in the final race of the 2021 season.  The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster now has three-career Cup Series starts at the Arizona short track.  His most recent start in March of this year fetched a respectable ninth-place finish and his first-career Top 10 at the track.  That will be a performance to build on this Sunday for this driver and team.  Bell and his team are building momentum for next season, and they've shown in the final quarter of this season they have the ability to compete and finish with the best in NASCAR week-in and week-out.     

Kurt Busch – No matter what happens Sunday afternoon, Busch has had a good season.  Despite not advancing deep into the Chase, Busch has posted good results in 2021.  Phoenix Raceway should present him with another opportunity to grab a Top 10 before the season ends and he brings to an end his career at Chip Ganassi Racing.  Busch has solid career numbers at this small oval.  37-career starts have yielded 20 Top-10 finishes, 817 laps led and one victory.  The 54-percent Top-10 rate and 13.6 average finish are as good a numbers as any veteran driver can boast.  Coming off fourth- and seventh-place finishes the last two events, we expect Busch and the No. 1 Chevrolet team to end the season strong.

Alex Bowman – Last week's surprise Martinsville winner checks in on the sleepers list this week.  Bowman will be very challenged for an encore performance to his upset win of last Sunday.  However, another good short track performance wouldn't at all be surprising.  The bullrings have really been a high point for this driver and team in 2021, which is a bit uncharacteristic for Bowman.  We tend to think of him more as an intermediate oval ace, but you cannot overlook what he's done on short tracks this season.  Bowman's Richmond victory in the Spring comes to mind, and his recent Top-5 performance at Bristol underscores his Martinsville victory.  The veteran driver has generally been a Top-15 finisher in his last three Phoenix starts, but we believe he'll be much better than that in the Season Finale 500. 

Aric Almirola – Almirola looked like a man on a mission this past weekend driving his Ford to a sixth-place finish at the Martinsville short track.  It was just his fourth Top 10 of the season, but helped to erase the heartache of a very tough season.  It also reminded us that his limited success this season has mostly come on the short tracks.  The veteran driver of the No. 10 Ford has had limited success at Phoenix Raceway over his career, but he started to turn the corner here a few seasons ago.  Almirola has five Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at the Desert Jewel.  His start here in March of this year earned a respectable 11th-place finish in the Instacart 500.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Tyler Reddick – After a subpar 18th-place finish at Martinsville this past weekend, Reddick comes to Phoenix on a tough-luck run of late.  His last two races of 22nd- and 18th-place have been out of character for this young driver and team.  That's an unsettling statistic heading into Phoenix Raceway this weekend.  Reddick has three prior starts at Phoenix Raceway have netted 33rd-, 19th- and 29th-place results.  He has yet to figure out this challenging short track.  The No. 8 Chevrolet team want to finish the season on a positive note, but the cards would appear stacked against them heading into this final race.  Reddick is a driver to fade for Sunday's Season Finale 500.                       

Michael McDowell – The Front Row Motorsports driver has been quite useful this season in deep weekly lineup leagues.  However, recently he's struggled during the NASCAR playoffs.  McDowell slogged to a 26th-place finish this past week at Martinsville and he has generally struggled in short track events this season.  The veteran driver has 21-career starts at Phoenix Raceway, and those have netted just two Top-20 finishes.  Recent starts have yielded a pair of 23rd-place finishes in his last two Phoenix starts.  The career average finish at Phoenix stands at an inflated 31.3.  McDowell just doesn't perform at this Arizona short track.  It's best to dismiss any thoughts of fantasy racing deployment in the Season Finale 500.

Ryan Preece – Another driver who is struggling coming into the season finale is JTG Daugherty Racing driver Preece.  He's only cracked the Top 20 once in the last six events and he's finished outside the Top 35 in two of his last three starts.  Preece's DNF at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday is just the latest of his recent struggles.  Phoenix Raceway has held very little results for the journeyman driver over the years.  His six-career starts at the desert oval have yielded just one Top-20 finish and an average finish of 29.2.  Those marks are far from impressive, and indicate his struggles at this facility.  While Sunday's Season Finale 500 is an opportunity for Preece to end the season on a positive note, it's best to stay clear of any fantasy racing expectations. 

Austin Dillon – It's been a pretty good season for the No. 3 Richard Childress Racing team.  The veteran driver rides a nine-race Top-15 streak into this weekend's action.  It would seem incorrect to fade Dillon for Phoenix, but here is our reasoning.  Dillon is far from a top performer at the Phoenix oval.  He hasn't cracked the Top 15 in his last five visits to the Desert Jewel.  As for Dillon's career marks at the Phoenix short track, he has just two Top 10's in 15 starts which works out to a lowly 21.2 average finish.  The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet finished 17th-place in March's Instacart 500, and that's probably the high water mark for this driver and team this weekend.