Quaker State 400 Preview: Atlanta the Sequel

With the twists and turns of Chicago Street Course now well in our rearview mirror, we head this week to a much different venue for the second time this season. NASCAR pulls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second visit of 2023. This event was a new addition to the Cup Series schedule two seasons ago. For much of the last decade, the sanctioning body only scheduled one event per year at Atlanta, but that changed with the addition of the Quaker State 400 to the 36-race schedule.

The lightning-fast quad oval will host this 400-mile battle Sunday evening. Atlanta Motor Speedway is similar to the many intermediate ovals we've already raced in the 2023 campaign, with the twist of the recent track reconfiguration of two years ago. We'll need to pay very close attention to who is currently surging in the Cup Series and also who performed well the last couple times we raced in Atlanta. To a lesser degree, the historical statistics of Atlanta will also play a part for identifying those teams that will make the transition back to intermediate oval racing the best. Atlanta Motor Speedway has a good group of drivers that dominate each time we visit central Georgia, and the table below illustrates this group well. 

Atlanta's recent overhaul increased the banking to a whopping 28 degrees and narrowed the racing groove to just 40 feet. The racing is pretty unique now and almost resembles the action we normally see on superspeedways like Daytona or Talladega. We need to take a quick look at the standard stats from the last three Atlanta races to get a good feel for who is having success and who is struggling with the new configuration. Here are the standard stats from the last three Atlanta Motor Speedway events, sorted by average finish.

Given what has happened at Atlanta Motor Speedway in March's Ambetter Health 400, it's almost certain that it will be another multi-driver brawl this weekend. The first three Cup Series events on the newly reconfigured Atlanta oval have offered up lots of lead changes, lots of different leaders and tons of excitement. The amazing statistics we've seen show just how transformed Atlanta Motor Speedway is now after the banking and surface changes. Even though Joey Logano dominated that event, there were still 13 different leaders and a good bit of shuffling at the front. That radically different racing was all too apparent to the casual observer. No lead was safe and any driver could make a push to the front, much like a superspeedway race. We're sure to see similar action again this Sunday.

Logano won the race in March on the new Atlanta, and although he led 140 laps it was far from certain on even the white flag lap that he'd be victorious. Logano would nip Brad Keselowski by just 0.193-seconds at the line to win with a host of other drivers in their "back seats" so to speak at the checkered flag. We had three caution periods for accidents mostly of the multi-car type, so the racing action was mostly continuous. Due to those multi-car wrecks, we also have to acknowledge the luck and staying out of trouble component that has been introduced to the Atlanta race. We had 8 cars DNF in that March event, so staying out of trouble and keeping the fenders on your car are another factor to consider. We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ross Chastain – Chastain nearly won two of the last three events at the Atlanta oval since the track reconfiguration. He led 42 laps in the spring 2022 race and finished runner-up to William Byron. Chastain also led 32 laps and finished runner-up in this event one year ago to Chase Elliott. The Trackhouse Racing veteran didn't have quite as much luck in the event earlier this season at AMS, finishing 13th-place, but he did lead 5 laps and run up front a good portion of that race. The 5.7 average finish across all three starts is pretty impressive and the total laps led of 79 is a difficult statistic to ignore. Chastain has really warmed to the new configuration at Atlanta, and he'll be a factor in the outcome of Sunday evening's Quaker State 400.

Chase Elliott – Elliott won this event one year ago in a strong performance, and despite missing this season's earlier installment at Atlanta with a broken leg, he has to be considered one of the top contenders this weekend. When NASCAR debuted the new configuration of AMS in the spring of 2022, Elliott piloted the No. 9 Chevrolet to 29 laps led and an impressive sixth-place finish in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The 125 laps led combined in those two starts is second only to Joey Logano for all drivers at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports star is still seeking to scratch the win column for this season, and his home state race could be just the event that gets Elliott in the win column for the first time in 2023.  

Joey Logano – Logano's superspeedway prowess paid off big in the race earlier this season at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Penske Racing star won the pole and led 140 laps in a dominating performance to pick up the victory. His combined 152 laps led through the last three events on the "new" Atlanta lead all drivers. Logano wasn't quite as lucky in this event one year ago, getting rolled up in one of the several multi-car accidents. However, the driver of the No. 22 Ford Mustang was quite impressive in NASCAR's debut of the new configuration in the spring of 2022. Logano qualified third on the grid that weekend, led 12 laps and finished a strong ninth-place in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The veteran driver has a great opportunity to win in this 400-mile race under the lights.

Kyle Busch – The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has had some mixed luck in his last three Atlanta starts, but he's managed to lead a total of 28 combined laps in those outings and finish inside the Top 10 earlier this season in the Ambetter Health 400. Busch's improved superspeedway performance since moving to Richard Childress Racing this season is much of the reason for our optimism this weekend. He was in the running to win the season-opening Daytona 500 before a late-race crash dashed those hopes. Busch would then go onto win an impressive performance at Talladega later in the spring. He's been running up front in these superspeedway races since taking over the No. 8 Chevrolet. We believe he'll be a factor in the outcome of Sunday's Quaker State 400.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

William Byron – Byron has had a strong season and he enters the weekend second-place in the driver standings. In the inaugural race at Atlanta with the new configuration, he led a race-high 111 laps that afternoon but it would take some work to wrestle the lead from Bubba Wallace after the final restart of the day and hold off many challengers to secure the victory. He would return to Atlanta in this event one year ago and again led 41 laps and set the pace, however, Byron would get rolled up in a mid-race crash and DNF. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet would crash out in the race earlier this season at AMS, but once again show his strength on this track and in this form of racing. Byron fetched a Top-10 finish at Talladega in the spring, and that's exactly what we're expecting this Sunday evening.     

Martin Truex Jr. – We don't typically think of Truex when it comes to superspeedway racing, however, he did post eighth- and 11th-place finishes in his first two Atlanta starts on the new configuration. That bucked some historical trends for sure for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota. The smaller size of Atlanta likely plays better to Truex's abilities and his familiarity and past success at the track. The veteran driver has led close to 400 laps at Atlanta and he cracks the Top 10 at a strong 48-percent rate. In more recent outings, Truex has a stellar 82-percent Top-10 rate at AMS since 2015. He should be a strong performer in Sunday night's Quaker State 400.       

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been one of the top performers on the new Atlanta layout as evidenced by his 22 laps led, one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes to power a strong 9.7 average finish across the three-race span. That dovetails nicely with his history in superspeedway racing. Blaney's last three starts between Talladega and Daytona have netted second-, eighth- and second-place finishes. The driver of the No. 12 Ford is a three-time winner between those two tracks and has led a combined 467 laps on superspeedway ovals. Blaney is looking to break out of a tough three-race stretch, and the Atlanta event is just what the doctor ordered for this driver and team.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford Mustang has always been a top performer on superspeedway ovals. Keselowski owns six Talladega wins and one Daytona victory. So it was no surprise to see the veteran driver qualify fourth on the grid at Atlanta in March, lead 47 laps and nab an impressive runner-up finish in the Ambetter Health 400. It was by far the best of his three outings on the new configuration at Atlanta Motor Speedway and lowered his average finish across that span to 10.7. To prove this driver and team's superspeedway program was no fluke, Keselowski went to Talladega in April and penetrated the Top 5 in the GEICO 500. We believe the RFKR driver has the right stuff to crack the Top 10 in this 400-mile Atlanta battle.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Atlanta & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Bell turned in the best of his three Atlanta starts on the new configuration in March's Ambetter Health 400. He piloted the No. 20 Toyota to a steady 10th-place starting spot on the grid, led 6 laps and finished an impressive third-place that March afternoon. The performance coincides nicely with what Bell has done on the superspeedway ovals of Daytona and Talladega this season. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster grabbed an impressive third-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed with a sound eighth-place finish at Talladega. Bell has the gift of racing in pack and draft and has employed it well this season. Atlanta Motor Speedway is just another opportunity for him to show off that skill.   

Denny Hamlin – It took a couple starts for Hamlin to warm up to the higher banking and narrower racing groove at the new Atlanta. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has always been a top performer on superspeedway ovals, so it was no surprise. Hamlin's three Daytona 500 victories and two Talladega wins are a real testament to his abilities. In the event earlier this season at AMS, Hamlin piloted the No. 11 Toyota to 14 laps led and a day-long battle at the front. When the checkered flag waved he came home a strong sixth-place in the Ambetter Health 400. The notes from that March outing should serve crew chief, Chris Gabehart, and Hamlin well. We expect a repeat of his success at Atlanta Motor Speedway.          

Daniel Suarez – Suarez will be looking to break out of a three-race slump this weekend, and Atlanta should be the rallying point for the No. 99 team. The veteran Trackhouse Racing driver has cracked the Top 10 in his last three Daytona/Talladega efforts, so this team has been superb recently in superspeedway performance. Suarez shined in his first two Atlanta efforts on the new configuration. He finished fourth- and sixth-place last season with a total of 13 laps led. Despite Suarez getting into a late-race accident in this March's Atlanta event, we believe he has the skill and experience to challenge the Top 10 in Sunday's Quaker State 400. 

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster had big speed in his first two reconfigured Atlanta starts. Reddick qualified well and led a combined 18 laps in those races last season. However, the driver of the No. 23 Toyota would get rolled up in mid-race crashes in both those contests and receive DNF's for his credit. Reddick erased all those doubts when he made his Atlanta start in March of this year and pedaled the team's Toyota to an impressive fifth-place finish in the Ambetter Health 400. It's not the first time Reddick has had success in a superspeedway contest, but it has been sporadic and not consistent performance. Thus we've slotted Reddick in the sleepers list to reflect his high ceiling and measurable risk.  

Erik Jones – The Legacy Motor Club driver has had monumental struggles this season, but he's shown a crack of light at the end of the tunnel in his last two outings. Finishes of eighth- and 16th-place the last two weeks are very encouraging coming to Atlanta Motor Speedway this week. His superspeedway history is good with one-career win at Daytona and a better-than 50-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega in 13 starts. Jones' performances on the new Atlanta have yielded 14th-, fourth- and eighth-place finishes since last season, and the eighth-place came in March's Ambetter Health 400. Jones has the superspeedway gift, and he's getting his slump reversed, so this is a good time to roll the driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet.

Corey Lajoie – The deep reach in salary cap, driver group and weekly lineup leagues this week is Lajoie and his Spire Motorsports team. The journeyman driver has been pretty sharp on the new Atlanta layout. Finishes of fifth-, 21st- and fourth-place have been Lajoie's body of work so far. He even posted a surprising 19 laps led in this event one year ago. The average finish of 10.0 across the three-race span is very impressive and even more so considering this small team and their resource limitations. The 31-year-old driver has always shown a skill for superspeedway racing. His six-career Top-10 finishes have all come at Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Larson – Simply put, this style of racing just isn't Larson's cup of tea. He's led a single lap in his three prior Atlanta starts since the reconfiguration and he's crashed out of two of those three events. The one race where Larson was still running at the checkered flag was a subpar 13th-place finish by his standards. The 24.7 average finish across the span is a big caution flag to any fantasy racing expectations for Larson and the No. 5 team this weekend. As a companion statistic, Larson's last 10 superspeedway starts between Daytona and Talladega have netted just two Top 10's vs. six DNF's for a 24.9 average finish. He's simply too risky to roll at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star has had more success on the intermediate and smaller ovals this season. Harvick's superspeedway stats in 2023 have been shaky at best. He hasn't cracked the Top 10 in his last four starts between Daytona and Talladega, after putting up great numbers on those same tracks in 2021. Harvick's performance on the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway has been inconsistent as well. The veteran driver has finishes of 21st-, 12th- and 33rd-place in those outings for a 22.0 average finish across the three-race span. Harvick crashed mid-way into March's Ambetter Health 400 and that's what netted him the 33rd-place finish. He'll be hard-pressed to crack the Top 15 Sunday in Atlanta.   

Austin Dillon – We typically think of Dillon when it comes to superspeedway racing, but he just hasn't had the luck in 2023. Finishes of 33rd- and 38th-place have been his body of work at Daytona and Talladega, thanks to DNF's in both of those events. That mirrors Dillon's performance on the new Atlanta Motor Speedway as well. He crashed and finished 35th-place in his first two starts at AMS. Dillon returned this March to Atlanta and struggled to an unimpressive 20th-place finish in the Ambetter Health 400. We believe the driver of the RCR No. 3 Chevrolet is a high-risk fantasy racing prospect for Sunday's Quaker State 400.          

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Despite Stenhouse's win in the Daytona 500 in January and his past success in superspeedway racing, we are recommending to pass on the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet this weekend. That win at Daytona was really an outlier for Stenhouse of late and his only Top 10 on a superspeedway oval in the last 10 races. As for Atlanta Motor Speedway since the reconfiguration, Stenhouse has struggled to finish these high-risk races. Despite leading 31 combined laps, his finishes have been 31st-, 31st- and 17th-place, thanks to two DNF's. The qualifying efforts have not been strong either with Stenhouse's average Atlanta start at 25.0 over the last three races. There are better options in the fantasy racing field this weekend at Atlanta.