Pennzoil 400 Preview: West Coast Swing Begins

With Atlanta Motor Speedway now in our rearview mirror, we travel out west this week and kick off the west coast swing. The NASCAR Cup Series will make their early-season visit to Sin City this weekend for the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The intermediate oval in the Nevada desert hosts the Pennzoil 400 this Sunday afternoon. With this being the second race on an intermediate oval for the campaign, we need to get our notebooks handy. This race will be a good example of what we can expect going forward for many of the drivers on similar style ovals. Those who perform well at Las Vegas are set up to run well at upcoming facilities like Kansas, Charlotte and Texas. This style of track makes up a vast percentage (43%) of the ovals that the Cup Series races on, so this 400-mile event will be an early season barometer for what's to come. The drivers that succeed this week will be ones to watch in the coming weeks. 

LVMS is like many intermediate ovals on the Cup Series schedule. While the banking and configuration varies a bit from the other cookie cutter tracks, Las Vegas should be a good indicator of what to expect for most of the drivers early in 2024 on these style ovals. Since historical data is so valuable in developing our weekly driver list, we'll take a quick look at these track specific statistics. The loop stats in the table below span the last 19 years of competition at this 1.5-mile oval. Let's take a look at the loop stats for the last 25 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for some background on the drivers. 

Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a track of parity for several years. However, we've seen the advantage shift somewhat to Chevrolet teams in the last couple seasons. Chevrolet drivers have won three of the last four events at the Las Vegas oval. Still, all three manufacturers have put a driver in victory lane at LVMS since 2021, so parity still exists. In this event one year ago the Cup Series returned to the Nevada desert and William Byron rolled into victory lane for the first time in his career at the 1.5-mile oval. With Byron picking up that solid victory, we saw another Chevrolet driver sweep into victory lane at Las Vegas in the fall installment at the track last October. Kyle Larson held off a furious challenge from Toyota driver, Christopher Bell, and captured an important playoff win for the bowtie brand in his march into the championship round of the playoffs. Bell was coming strong and nearly caught Larson as the two came to the checkered flag door-to-door. That is a good shot of confidence for the Toyota brand of drivers heading into Sunday's Pennzoil 400. 

However, before we cede the trophy to a Chevrolet or Toyota camp we need to realize that contenders will also come from the Ford stable this weekend. Ford last won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the fall of 2022 when Joey Logano would park his No. 22 Ford Mustang in victory lane at the Nevada race track. Ford drivers have just two victories of the last eight events at Vegas and are clearly on the back foot. However, as Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney showed at LVMS last October, the blue oval brand is capable of racing among the leaders and challenging for the win here as well. Anyone can surge at the end of these races with the right pit and race strategy and pull off the upset. Late cautions and overtime finishes open the door to this type of anarchy. The following drivers are our picks for fantasy racing success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The two-time Las Vegas winner comes to Nevada this week in need of a strong performance after a couple rough superspeedway outings. The Hendrick Motorsports star owns two victories and four runner-up finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, so he always seems to be in the running for the win here. Larson cracks the Top-5 at an impressive 47-percent rate and the Top-10 at a 73-percent rate at this facility. With close to 450 laps led for his career at this track, it's clear that Larson has this place zeroed-in. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet dominated the last event at LVMS with 133 laps led and the win in last October's South Point 400. If Chevrolet hopes to continue their winning ways in Sin City, those hopes will largely ride with Larson and the No. 5 team this Sunday afternoon.

William Byron – Byron won this event one year ago for his first-career victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He led 176 laps that afternoon and dominated his way to the easy win. Byron has posted great qualifying efforts at this intermediate oval dating back to 2021. He has Top-3 starting spots in five of his last six starts in the Nevada desert. That strong qualifying and good staring track position are leading to challenges for the win. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet now has 12-career Cup starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, so the experience is starting to stack up. While his stats aren't eye-popping, with his win in this event last year, we believe Byron and company are ready to start stacking Las Vegas wins.

Christopher Bell – Bell was the strongest Toyota driver down the stretch run of last season on the mid-sized ovals. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster had a win, a runner-up finish and three Top 5's in his last four intermediate oval events of 2023. He'll carry that momentum into Sunday's Pennzoil 400. Bell won the pole position, led 61 laps and finished runner-up at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last October. The notes from that performance will come in quite handy this weekend. Bell struggled early in his career at LVMS, but he seems to have turned the corner at this track. He has two pole positions, 93 laps led, a runner-up, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.     

Joey Logano – Logano is a three-time Las Vegas winner (2019, 2020 and 2022) and he always seems to have a strong race car when the Cup Series visits the Nevada race track. With over 500 laps led at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the Penske Racing star has had more than his fair share of racing up front here. The veteran driver cracks the Top 5 at this facility at a strong 33-percent rate and Top 10 at an equally strong 57-percent. Logano and the No. 22 Ford team haven't started the season well with tough luck at both Daytona and Atlanta last weekend, so a very driven, motivated and purposeful driver will be focused at Las Vegas this Sunday. Among the many intermediate ovals on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Las Vegas is one of Logano's best.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has led over 350-combined laps and collected five Top-10 finishes in his last seven Las Vegas starts. That's a break with Hamlin's career record at this Nevada race track, but a clear trend going forward. His career numbers at LVMS look pretty pedestrian, but his more recent numbers are off the charts with excellence. His average finish over the recent seven-race span is a miniscule 9.4. Hamlin and the No. 11 Toyota team led 23 laps and finished a respectable 10th-place in last October's South Point 400. He should be even more sharp in Sunday's 400-miler. We believe this event could be a big early-season highlight of Hamlin's 2024 campaign. 

Kyle Busch – The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has enjoyed a good bit of success at his home state track over the years, and most of that success has come in a Toyota but it has started to translate into his new Chevy team this past year. Busch collected a strong third-place finish in last October's South Point 400 and that only bolstered what are already impressive career totals at this track. The Richard Childress Racing star is a one-time winner at Las Vegas, and he owns 12 Top-5 finishes in 25 starts for a strong 48-percent Top-5 rate. With 311-career laps led at LVMS, he's had his share of strong cars at the 1.5-mile Nevada oval. Busch has started this season well with great outings at Daytona and Atlanta, and we believe he'll be a major factor in the outcome once again in Sunday's Pennzoil 400.     

Ryan Blaney – Blaney finished last season strong on intermediate ovals. It's a big reason why he won last year's NASCAR Cup Series championship. Blaney nabbed sixth-, second- and second-place finishes in the last three 1.5-mile oval races of 2023. As it relates to Las Vegas, the Penske Racing star should be on his game once again this Sunday. Blaney's sixth-place in Vegas last fall was his ninth-career Top 10 at the track and that lifted his career Top-10 rate at LVMS to 60-percent. That's a very respectable average. The driver of the No. 12 Ford Mustang is coming off an impressive runner-up finish this past Sunday at Atlanta and is rolling into Sin City with a ton of momentum.

Ross Chastain – Prior to the move to Trackhouse Racing, Chastain really had an unremarkable record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He was 0-for-7 in starts vs Top 10's at the intermediate Nevada oval. That all changed when Chastain moved to Trackhouse Racing in 2022. In the four starts at Vegas since, he's led 151 total laps and grabbed three Top-5 finishes in those four efforts. The 5.5 average finish across the span is very eye opening and impressive. Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team rounded out last season strong on intermediate ovals with two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts. This driver and team have been money on these size ovals of late.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Las Vegas & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is looking forward to Las Vegas after his 12th-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Truex and the No. 19 Toyota team have some things to work on, but Las Vegas could be the track that jump starts his season. He's won two races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway since the 2017 season and he's riding a seven-race Las Vegas Top-10 streak into Sunday's Pennzoil 400. Truex's last start at the Nevada oval was a strong ninth-place finish in last October's South Point 400. With over 300-career laps led at this Nevada speedway, we're quite accustomed to seeing Truex race among the leaders here. We believe this driver and team will be one of the strong fantasy plays in the Pennzoil 400.

Tyler Reddick – The season has not started well for 23XI Racing driver Reddick. Poor finishes in both the Daytona 500 and at Atlanta have the young driver and this team on the back foot coming to Las Vegas this Sunday. The thing most will observe about Reddick this week is that he's a 50-percent career Top-10 finisher at LVMS. That's a pretty steady level of performance. In his last outing at the Nevada speedway, Reddick finished a respectable eighth-place in October's South Point 400. That lowered his career average finish at this facility to a fantasy worthy 15.0. This is a struggling young driver and struggling race team at the moment. However, they're poised to rebound in this 400-mile battle is Vegas.

Daniel Suarez – Coming off the big win in Atlanta this past week, it's difficult to ignore Suarez this week. Despite having a lowly 15-percent Top-10 rate at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he's worth a look this week in the Pennzoil 400. Suarez has finished a respectable 10th- and 15th-place in his last two Vegas starts. The 10th-place came in this event one year ago. The Trackhouse Racing veteran showed with his strong eighth-place finish at Texas last fall that he can carve up the intermediate ovals. The No. 99 Chevrolet team is riding a lot of momentum into Sin City this week. Suarez should be a good bet to challenge the Top 10 in the Pennzoil 400.             

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has charged out of the gates to start the 2024 season. After a pair of fifth-place finishes at Daytona and Atlanta, the 23XI Racing driver is on a good footing coming to the Nevada oval. Up next is Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and the driver of the No. 23 Toyota hasn't exactly had a lot of success at this track. Wallace has a 17-percent Top-10 rate here, however, his start in Nevada one year ago netted a track career-best finish of fourth-place in last season's Pennzoil 400. The notes from that performance will come in very handy this Sunday. Wallace has been a top performer on intermediate ovals dating back to last season. He has three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts on 1.5-mile tracks.

Brad Keselowski – The three-time Las Vegas winner looks to keep his strong resume at this oval going in the Pennzoil 400. Keselowski is coming off a disappointing performance at Atlanta this past week and will be looking to rebound in Sin City. His stats at this Las Vegas facility has been incredibly strong throughout his career. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing star has three wins, two runner-up finishes and 13 Top-10 finishes at the Vegas oval. It's for this reason alone that we think Keselowski will be strong this weekend. The driver of the No. 6 Ford has some ground to make up and some room to improve over his start to this season. Keselowski has been a top performer at this track over the years, and he'll get a chance to prove his skill once again. 

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has qualified well in his three prior starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he has yet to collect the good finishes. We believe he'll change that trend this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been outstanding his last two intermediate oval performances with a seventh-place finish last November in Homestead and a 10th-place finish this past week at Atlanta. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota rides some good momentum into this Sunday's Pennzoil 400. Gibbs had good Xfinity Series performances at this oval with a win and two Top-5 finishes in three-career starts for a stellar 5.3 average finish at Vegas. We expect this driver and team to be Top-10 threats Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week  

Chase Elliott – For a top tier driver, Elliott hasn't exactly been carving up the intermediate ovals of late. In his last five 1.5-mile oval starts dating back to last season, he has just one Top-10 finish in five starts for 15.8 average finish. That's well below the level we expect for a top tier driver. Elliott and the No. 9 team have also had their struggles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He has just five Top 10's in 13 starts (39-percent) for a 19.2 average finish. Elliott has finished inside the Top 20 in his last two starts at Las Vegas. We believe this is a weekend to pass on any fantasy racing expectations for this talented driver. Save his starts for upcoming short tracks. 

Austin Dillon – Dillon has been in the high weeds for much of the last year. This slumping driver and team will face a tough challenge to break out of that slump this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The driver of the No. 3 has just one Top-10 finish in his last five intermediate ovals starts for a disappointing 23.8 average finish. Dillon was a subpar 22nd-place at Atlanta this past week. As for Las Vegas, he hasn't had the best record there as well. In 17 career starts he has just three Top-10 finishes for a lowly 18-percent Top-10 rate and 15.9 average finish. This struggling driver and team are better left on the fantasy racing bench this week.   

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet is a one-time Vegas winner (2022) but he's not been very consistent at this oval during his career. Bowman has just a 31-percent Top-10 rate at Las Vegas and his 18.3 average finish is a bit more inflated that we'd like. Bowman's recent intermediate oval outings have yielded just one Top-10 finish (20-percent) and a subpar 20.6 average finish. That includes Bowman's disappointing 27th-place finish at Atlanta this past weekend. In Bowman's last Las Vegas start he crashed out mid-race and finished a distant 35th-place in last October's South Point 400. It's best to pass on Bowman and this race team for the Pennzoil 400. 

Chase Briscoe – Stewart Haas Racing is off to slow start to the season and Briscoe has been a part of those struggles. The driver of the No. 14 Ford has had his struggles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Briscoe's six starts there have only yielded one Top-10 finish (17-percent) and an uninspiring 22.5 average finish. In his last start here last October, Briscoe ran into trouble and fell a few laps down to the leaders to finish a distant 33rd-place in the South Point 400. This driver and team have had their struggles in general recently on intermediate tracks. Briscoe has just one Top 10 in his last five 1.5-mile oval starts and a lowly 22.0 average finish. It's best to stay clear of this struggling driver and team this weekend.