Pennzoil 400 Preview: Patterns Begin to Form

LVMS is just the second of our many intermediate ovals on the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule. While the banking and configuration varies a bit from the other intermediate ovals, Las Vegas should be a good indicator of what to expect for most of the drivers in 2019 on these style tracks. Since historical data is so valuable in developing our weekly driver list, we'll take a quick look at these track specific statistics. The loop stats in the table below span the last 14 years of competition at this 1.5-mile oval. Let's take a look at the loop stats for the last 15 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for some background on the drivers.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway had been a track of parity for several years. However, we've seen the advantage shift to Ford teams in the last few seasons. Ford drivers have won three of the last four events at the Las Vegas oval. In this event one year ago the Monster Energy Cup Series returned to the Nevada desert and Kevin Harvick rolled into victory lane for the second time in his career at the 1.5-mile oval. With Harvick picking up that victory, and Brad Keselowski claiming the first-ever fall victory at Vegas, the focus is squarely on Ford drivers and teams as we return this Sunday. However, before we cede the trophy to a Ford camp we need to realize that contenders will come from several different stables this weekend. Toyota and Chevrolet drivers will be looking to upset the current trend at LVMS. Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson will be among some of the drivers knocking at the door. Given what we saw this past weekend at Atlanta with the new aero rules package, we'd have to give Ford and Toyota drivers heavy consideration. The top suitors from Chevrolet appeared to be Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch. The performance we saw this past Sunday at Atlanta will play heavily on our minds during this week's race preparation. Here are our picks for fantasy racing success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski - The three-time Las Vegas winner looks to keep his winning ways rolling in the Pennzoil 400. Keselowski overcame illness, lack of practice time, and a not particularly impressive No. 2 Ford to beat Martin Truex Jr. last weekend at Atlanta. His resume at this Las Vegas facility has been incredibly strong the past few seasons. The Penske Racing star has two pole positions, three victories, 262 laps led, and a seven-race Top-10 streak in his last seven starts at the Vegas oval. It's for this reason alone that we think Keselowski will be strong this weekend, and most likely stronger than he was at Atlanta last week. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has some momentum and history on his side as we head to Las Vegas.

Kevin Harvick - The track in Las Vegas has produced a lot of repeat winners, and it could again with the 2015 & 2018 LVMS winner, Harvick. The No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team is fresh off a strong performance at Atlanta as this veteran driver is off to a good start to the season. The driver of the No. 4 Ford has strong career numbers at the Vegas oval, to go along with his two-career victories. Harvick owns an impressive 15.4 average finish over his 19 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and has five Top 5s and eight Top 10s over that span. Harvick led a whopping 214 laps en route to the dominant victory in this event one year ago. The No. 4 SHR team has the strong Las Vegas reputation to defend this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. - The new Joe Gibbs Racing star is looking to get the win that escaped him last weekend at Atlanta. After a strong runner-up performance in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this past week, the No. 19 team comes to Las Vegas looking to get on a roll. Truex has really carved up these style tracks in recent seasons with multiple victories and Top-10 finishes. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has held some recent success for this veteran driver. He won this event in 2017, and he carries a three-race Las Vegas Top-5 streak into Sunday's event. That win two seasons ago was Truex's first victory at the Nevada oval, but not his first flirtation with victory there. Truex finished runner-up in the 2015 installment of the Pennzoil 400. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has yielded 252 laps led to the veteran driver in just his last three starts.

Kyle Larson - Were it not for a pit road speeding penalty at Atlanta this past Sunday, we would have likely seen Larson in victory lane at the Georgia oval. He led 142 laps and dominated a large part of that event. Now he comes to a track where he's been zeroed-in on the lead the last two years. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has finishes of second-, third- and second-place in the last two seasons at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Larson's start here last fall during the Chase netted 24 laps led and a runner-up finish to Brad Keselowski. Outside of the three drivers above him in this list, the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet has been nearly as dominant. Based on what we witnessed in this past Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, we really like Laron's chances at an upset win.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kyle Busch - The driver of the No. 18 Toyota had a bit of a struggled performance at Atlanta this past week, but it's no surprise given his up-and-down career at that facility. He still soldiered through and nabbed a sixth-place finish. We expect Busch to build on that effort this week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a one-time winner at his hometown track, and he owns eight Top-10 finishes in 15 starts. Three of his last four efforts have netted fourth-, second- and seventh-place finishes at this facility. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is still not one of Busch's better intermediate ovals, but it's a bit better than last week's track, Atlanta.

Joey Logano - Logano had loose wheel issues on his No. 22 Ford late in the race last Sunday at Atlanta, or he would have had a Top-5 finish. It was a tough break for the Penske Racing star. However, the performance and speed of that race do stand out. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has a strong 9.2 average finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and he's led 150 laps there in just his last four starts. He's started on the front row in four of the last six Vegas races and rides a six-race Las Vegas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. Logano was not rewarded for his good speed and effort at Atlanta this past week. However, that was a race of tire-management and we won't see that in Sunday's race at Las Vegas. This is a much newer and less abrasive surface.

Kurt Busch - Considering how good he was at Atlanta last week, it's no stretch to slot the Chip Ganassi Racing veteran in the solid plays list this week. Busch peddled his way to a hard-fought third-place in last week's event. Vegas has been tough on this driver over the years. Busch's hometown track beat him up early in his NASCAR career, but of late it's started to yield some pole positions and Top 10s. Most fantasy racing gurus will overlook this driver due to his career 22-percent Top-10 rate at the Vegas oval. However, we believe last week's performance coupled with the new rules package is a game changer for Busch. The Ganassi teams really seemed to be ahead of the curve compared to other Chevrolet camps with the new rules. Some very strong racing for both Busch and his teammate, Kyle Larson, was the result.

Clint Bowyer - Last week was kind of a "wait and see" scenario with Bowyer in Atlanta. Well, we waited and what we saw was an outstanding performance for a driver that has historically struggled at that oval. Bowyer hustled his way to a strong fifth-place finish, as he raced inside the Top 10 during most of that 500-mile event. The No. 14 Ford was one of the most consistently fast cars of the weekend in qualifying, practice and the race itself. That good chemistry and speed should travel well to Nevada this week. Bowyer hasn't been a world-beater at Las Vegas with just a 28-percent career Top-10 rate at this oval. However, he looked really good here in testing the new rules package in January, and he was incredible this past week at Atlanta. We believe it all adds up to another strong display in the Pennzoil 400.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Las Vegas who can provide a solid finish

Aric Almirola - The Atlanta pole winner led 36 laps last weekend and finished a respectable eighth-place after a pit road speeding penalty. The speed was good, now Almirola just needs to eliminate the mistakes. The No. 10 Stewart Haas Racing team now sets it sights on the oval just outside Las Vegas. In 11-career starts at LVMS, Almirola has just two Top-10 finishes. The good news, the really good news, is that both came in last season's two events at LVMS. Almirola didn't qualify particularly well in either of those races, but he managed to charge through the field and finish 10th in this event one year ago. He returned last fall and nabbed an even better sixth-place finish in the South Point 400. That was Almirola's last start on the Vegas speedway, and a good impression to look towards this weekend.

Ryan Blaney - Blaney's strong run at Atlanta this past weekend was an eye-opener. He's never really fared well at that oval. The driver of the No. 12 Ford led 41 laps and looked in position to challenge the Top 5 in the closing laps. However, he burned up the tires racing hard down the stretch. An unscheduled late pit stop would derail his Top-5 chances. Now we come to an oval where tire wear is much less of an issue. That will bode well for the aggressive young driver. Blaney's five career Las Vegas starts have netted one pole position, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes. He won the pole and finished fifth in this event one year ago, and he returned last fall to register another fifth-place finish in the South Point 400. Blaney simply needs to keep on racing hard this week, and the Top-10 finish will come.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is off to a great start this season. After the Daytona 500 win, he nabbed a respectable 11th-place finish at Atlanta this past week. He comes to Vegas first in the current driver point standings. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran doesn't have the best career stats at Las Vegas. Despite a career 43-percent Top-10 rate at LVMS, most of his success came earlier in his career at this oval. He has Top-10 finishes in two of his last five Las Vegas starts, so that's hovering around that career Top-10 rate. The new rules package for the Cup cars appeared to sit well with Hamlin. He qualified fourth at Atlanta this past week, and at times he looked faster than his teammate, Kyle Busch. The Daytona 500 victory has given this driver and team a renewed outlook and optimism, so we expect a competitive and hungry Hamlin to show up at Las Vegas.

Erik Jones - The driver of the No. 20 Toyota was a part of the Joe Gibbs Racing assault on Atlanta last week. That effort netted three Top 10s and an 11th-place finish for JGR at the checkered flag. Jones charged late in that 500-mile event and earned a respectable seventh-place finish. He was solid all last season on the intermediate ovals, so it came as no surprise. Jones has just three-career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, so there's little data to trace. However, he did finish eighth in this event one year ago. The young driver returned to the desert track last September and won a surprising pole position. However, his race luck wasn't as good. Jones got tangled up with Kevin Harvick mid-race and crashed out of the South Point 400. We know he'll be motivated to make up for that misfortune in Sunday's Pennzoil 400.

Daniel Suarez - Atlanta was a good test of the abilities of Suarez with his new No. 41 Ford team. They passed the test with flying colors. The young driver qualified well with a fifth-place starting spot. Suarez would go onto race his way to a steady 10th-place finish in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. It was a great beginning to his venture with Stewart Haas Racing. Suarez will be making his fourth-career Las Vegas start this Sunday afternoon. He has just one Top-10 finish in his prior three starts. However, it came in his most recent appearance last September. Suarez started 19th and finished eighth in the South Point 400. That's a good indicator of potential for Sunday's Pennzoil 400.

Ryan Newman - Speaking of new faces in new places, Newman was another driver new to his team that impressed us last weekend at Atlanta. The veteran driver of the No. 6 Ford qualified inside the Top 15, raced inside the Top 15, and finished there after 500 miles. Considering the struggles of this race team the last few seasons, it was a very impressive and noteworthy performance. The 18-season veteran seems to have really given this team a boost in morale and performance. Newman has very steady Las Vegas numbers. In 19-career starts he has four Top-5, nine Top-10 finishes and an impressive 15.5 average finish. His two starts at the Vegas oval last season netted 11th- and ninth-place finishes.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson - Johnson stays in the slow down list this week. The Hendrick Motorsports star's poor performance and 24th-place finish at Atlanta this past week is a bad look in our first intermediate oval event of 2019. Now he heads to an oval that has provided lots of good performances over the years. Johnson has four-career victories and nine Top-10 finishes at LVMS. Although, much of that success came earlier in his career. He finished 12th in this event one year ago, and that's been more demonstrative of his recent outings in Vegas. Johnson returned in the fall and finished a disappointing 22nd in the South Point 400. He's failed to crack the Top 10 in his last seven 1.5-mile oval races, so there's something still not right in this race team.

Chase Elliott - Based on what we observed this past week in Atlanta the Chevrolet teams still have a lot of work to do with the Camaro and the new aerodynamic package. All the Hendrick teams looked subpar at best. Elliott, in particular, struggled to an uninspiring 19th-place finish in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Unfortunately, we come to a track this weekend that has been a real puzzle for the young star. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has hosted Elliott four times to this point in his Cup career, and he's come away with three DNF's in those outings. Crashes in three of the four starts have heavily offset the one Top-5 finish Elliott has collected. As we continue to progress into the season we expect Elliott and the No. 9 team to rapidly adapt to these ovals, but for now we recommend the fantasy racing bench.

Austin Dillon - Last weekend started off good for Dillon. He had decent practice laps at Atlanta, and he advanced to the final round of knockout qualifying to register a respectable 10th-place starting spot for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. However, the race was an entirely different story for the No. 3 Chevrolet team. Dillon and the RCR team couldn't keep up with the changing track throughout the 500 miles, and would fall a lap down to the leaders. A disappointing 21st-place finish was the result. Las Vegas promises a mulligan for this driver and team, but first they have to figure a few things out. Dillon has just one Top-10 finish in seven-career starts at LVMS, although the average finish is respectable at 15.9. A lot of things have to come together for this driver and team to improve. It's best to wait and see at this point.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - Stenhouse was a bit of a qualifying surprise at Atlanta Motor Speedway last weekend. He would take the outside pole in a bit of an upset. However, he couldn't keep the No. 17 Ford there all race long, and would soon fade into the field. A pit road speeding penalty would then compound the problem and keep them mired in the field all afternoon to finish 18th. The No. 17 Ford was good in clean air, but not so much in traffic. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has presented a number of challenges to Stenhouse over the years. Seven-career starts have yielded just a pair of Top-15 finishes for this driver. His last outing at the Nevada oval resulted in a crash and 30th-place finish in last September's South Point 400. His career 23.3 average finish at LVMS is looking just about accurate for this Sunday's 400-mile race.