O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Preview: Road Course Twist

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series stays in Daytona Beach for the second event of the season, and races on the famed oval's challenging road course.  This event was quickly put together when word came in December that Auto Club Speedway would not be able to host the second race of the season.  

This circuit is a 14-turn, 3.61-mile long road course that is intertwined with most of the Daytona oval.  The event is 70 laps, divided into three stages of 16 laps, 18 laps and 36 laps.  Top speeds are higher than a normal road course due to most of the 2.5-mile oval being incorporated, but two "bus stop" style chicanes will keep the oval from being completely wide open racing.  The circuit is very reminiscent of the Roval course at Charlotte that NASCAR has raced the last three seasons.  That experience and familiarity should translate well to the Daytona road circuit.  The teams that can navigate the challenging chicanes and stay on the infield portion of the course will collect a good finish this Sunday at Daytona.  This will be the second time NASCAR's top division has raced on the Daytona Road Course in the last two weeks.  For the 21 drivers who participated in the Busch Clash on February 10th, they will have a valuable leg up on the rest of the field.    

Since this is just the second points race at the Daytona Road Course, we're going to be thin on historical stats for this event.  That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage.  However, we're not completely without some numbers.  For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers accumulated last season on the Daytona Road Course and Charlotte Roval.  Since the two circuits are similar oval-road course hybrids, it's really the best recent measure of which drivers tend to thrive on these style tracks.  The data will be spread between two races over the last year, so it will be fresh and relevant statistics.  In the table below are the driver's standard stats at the Daytona Road Course and Charlotte Roval from the 2020 season, sorted by average finish.

This weekend we will go points racing for the second time in two seasons at the Daytona road circuit.  NASCAR added this event last season as a makeup race and has done the same thing early on in this season.  The 14-turn circuit produced a pretty thrilling and even battle last August. Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. waged a three-way scrap in this 65-lap event last year.  Elliott would end up coming out on top by just 0.202-seconds over Hamlin in a memorable first race at the Daytona Road Course. We should be in for some similar action this Sunday afternoon.  We expect those three same names to be jockeying for the win, with a potential for a couple new names to be mixed in.  The distance has been extended from 65 to 70 laps this time, so those 5 extra laps should produce some memorable battles.     

The brief look we received of the Daytona circuit two weeks ago in the Busch Clash could also be of great help this week.  That event was just 35 laps and only featured about half the field of drivers we'll see this Sunday.  Still, it gave us some valuable first looks of this season at this racing circuit.  Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney dominated most of that exhibition race, but it would be Kyle Busch who would win as the two drivers battling for the win (Elliott & Blaney) would spin each other out within sight of the finish line.  It's that kind of tough racing and thrills that this road circuit produces.  We could be in for some more late-race twists this Sunday, so be prepared for anything to happen.  We'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the O'Reilly Auto Part 253 at the Daytona Road Course.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – Elliott is the winner of the last four road course events.  He's dominated venues such as Watkins Glen, the Charlotte Roval and this Daytona Road Course.  Just a little over a week ago, the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet was in a door-to-door battle for the win on this same circuit in the season-opening Busch Clash.  Elliott would spin both himself and Ryan Blaney racing for that victory, but still finish second in the Clash.  This driver and team are easily the most dominant force in NASCAR currently is this style of racing.  Elliott has the skills and crew chief Alan Gustafson has been giving him fantastic cars and calling great race strategy to deliver these victories.  He is the driver to beat in Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 253. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney was leading the Busch Clash last week coming into the final chicane with the finish line in sight.  However, a tough battle between himself and Chase Elliott would see the No. 12 Ford spun out of control within reach of the victory.  Although it was a harsh pill to swallow, Blaney's performance in that 35-lap exhibition race is symbolic of his performance on road courses the past couple seasons.  Blaney won at the Charlotte Roval in 2018, and he's collected four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes on these road circuits since that victory.  The Penske Racing star's last visit to a similar oval-road course hybrid saw him lead 14 laps and finish a strong fifth-place in last October's Bank of America Roval 400.  Blaney appears to be Elliott's biggest rival on these road courses at the moment.    

Martin Truex Jr. – Although he would crash and not finish in the Busch Clash, Truex showed he had little difficulty starting in the rear of that 21-car field and racing his way to the lead by lap 14.  The No. 19 Toyota looked like a hot knife going through butter as Truex navigated the field on this same course a little over a week ago.  Unfortunately, it would end badly with him crashing as he exited the backstretch bus stop.  Truex should redeem himself in a big way in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has a string of five-straight Top 10's on road courses dating back to his 2019 victory at Sonoma.  During this span he also led 10 laps and finished a brilliant third-place in last year's Daytona Road Course event.  Truex knows this circuit well, and has the skills to challenge for the win. 

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin had a strong outing in the Busch Clash just over a week ago.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star led 21 of the 35 laps on this same circuit and was the most dominant driver of the exhibition for much of the night.  However, he would fade a bit toward the end and cross the finish line sixth for a strong performance.  Hamlin has been strong over the past two seasons on these winding road courses.  He has three Top-5 finishes in his last five starts on these style tracks.  One of those efforts was a brilliant runner-up finish on this same Daytona Road Course last August.  Hamlin would lead 16 laps that summer afternoon and finish runner-up to Chase Elliott.  That experience will be greatly helpful for the No. 11 Toyota team in returning to this track. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Joey Logano – Logano has never been a world-beater in road course racing.  His oval excellence far outweighs his performance on the winding circuits.  However, the Penske Racing star has been good enough to warrant Top-10 driver consideration.  Logano is a one-time winner (Watkins Glen) on these style tracks and has 13 Top-10 finishes in 26-career starts on NASCAR road courses.  That 50-percent Top-10 rate is better than the norm, and worth due consideration.  Of late, the driver of the No. 22 Ford rides a three-race Top-10 streak on these winding circuits into the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.  More importantly, his outing in the Busch Clash last week netted a brilliant third-place finish.  Logano should make a fine fantasy racing play this Sunday afternoon.

William Byron - The young driver will look to rebound from his tough Daytona 500 outing and post a great finish in this weekend's Daytona Road Course event.  Byron has started to figure out road course racing over the last year, and the results have started to show for the No. 24 Chevrolet team.  Byron rides a three-race Top-10 streak on these style tracks into Sunday's action in Daytona.  He's also led 50 laps over that three-race span, so he's not just been playing "follow the leader".  The interesting fact about his three-race Top-10 streak is that all of the tracks involved are either the Charlotte or Daytona hybrid oval tracks, and not traditional road courses.  Byron seems to have really warmed to this style of racing and his fifth-place finish in last week's Busch Clash is an endorsement of that statement.    

Erik Jones –  Jones will be looking to bounce back from his early-race crash in the Daytona 500.  The Richard Petty Motorsports veteran has shown the gift of turning both right and left over the past two seasons.  Jones has three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last five road course events.  The 13.2 average finish across the span speaks to this driver's skills at this form of NASCAR racing.  His new RPM No. 43 team will look forward to that boost when Jones is behind the wheel in these events.  We got a good preview of that ability in last week's Busch Clash.  Jones raced among the Top 10 most of the night in that exhibition race and collected a respectable eighth-place finish at night's end.  He brings that type of potential to Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 253. 

Alex Bowman – It seems that every driver in the solid plays category this week is looking for some form of redemption from the Daytona 500.  Bowman is no exception.  He was entangled in the big one on lap 14 and retired to the garage area for the rest of the race.  The Hendrick Motorsports veteran should have a leg up on most of the competition for race two of the season.  Bowman has shown good road course skills over the last two seasons.  He has two Top-5, three Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes in his last six road course starts.  The oval-hybrids of Charlotte and Daytona have offered the best of those results with fourth-, second-, 12th- and eighth-place finishes between the two tracks.  Bowman was strong and steady last week in the Busch Clash and peddled his No. 48 Chevrolet to a wonderful seventh-place finish in that exhibition event.  He should be up to similar task this weekend.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Kyle Busch – Busch has been an up-and-down performer on the road circuits over his career.  However, he turned in his best performance on a road course in some time with his big win on this same track last week in the Busch Clash.  Granted, he needed the two leaders to take themselves out on the last lap to secure the victory.  Still, Busch raced better than we've seen in some time on this style circuit, and was solidly a Top-5 driver most of the event.  He should carry that success forward into Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.  It's been some time, but we often forget that the Joe Gibbs Racing star is a four-time road course winner with two victories at Sonoma and two at Watkins Glen.  It seems that it's taken a handful of races on these oval-hybrid style courses for Busch to get comfortable and start to succeed. 

Kevin Harvick – Coming off the Top-5 finish in the Daytona 500, Harvick will set his sights to challenge the Top 5 on the 14-turn road course in Daytona.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has been clearly a second-tier road course driver compared to Truex and Elliott over the past three seasons.  However, Harvick has been a rock of consistency and has posted numbers that grabs our attention.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford Mustang has one Top-5, four Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in his last six road course starts.  The 8.8 average finish across that span speaks for itself.  While Harvick has not been a major threat to win these races, he has been a consistent face among the Top 10 in these events.  He didn't have the best outing in the Busch Clash last week, but we're willing to give Harvick a mulligan for that one.  He should bounce back nicely on the Daytona Road Course this week.

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is another driver we're willing to pardon for a poor Busch Clash outing.  Busch's road racing skills are lesser known that some other drivers, but still very impressive when observed over the length of his NASCAR career.  The veteran owns a Sonoma victory in his resume and 22 Top-10 finishes combined between Sonoma, Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval.  That's a strong 54-percent Top-10 rate on the winding circuits.  In the inaugural Daytona Road Course race last summer, Busch peddled to a respectable 14th-place finish that afternoon.  This driver and team have nabbed three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in their last six road course starts for a steady 11.0 average finish.  Busch is not a very high profile driver for this race, but he should deliver dependable results. 

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is coming off a tough week at Daytona last week.  Keselowski finished a distant 17th in the Busch Clash, and he crashed on the final lap of the Daytona 500 while racing for the win.  He'll look to hit the reset button this week in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.  Keselowski has been an up-and-down performer on the road circuits over the years.  However, he does have a combined six Top-5 and nine Top 10's between Sonoma, Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval.  What's more intriguing is this star driver's recent exploits on the road courses.  Keselowski scored a ninth-place finish at Watkins Glen in 2019, and he followed that with a strong Top-5 finish at the Charlotte Roval later that season.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford was a Top-15 finisher last summer on the Daytona Road Course, and we expect him to be even better this time around. 

Chris Buescher – Buescher is what we consider to be a proficient road course driver.  In his last couple seasons, he's generally been a Top-15 finisher on these challenging circuits.  The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has 17th- and 18th-place finishes in his last two attempts on the Charlotte Roval and he's logged a respectable 14.8 average finish across his last six road course events.  In last season's Go Bowling 235 at the Daytona Road Course, the driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang knocked it out the park with a fantastic fifth-place finish that afternoon.  Considering it was the first time-ever that NASCAR had raced on the Daytona circuit, the feat was even more impressive.  Buescher was one of 21 drivers who got valuable laps on this track in the Busch Clash, and while his finish that evening was not the greatest, it was very valuable prep for this week.

Michael McDowell – The Daytona 500 winner is a driver to watch closely in the deeper tiers of weekly lineup and salary cap leagues this week.  McDowell has been a consistent performer over the years on both the superspeedway ovals and the road circuits.  They're his best tracks by far.  McDowell earned a steady 16th-place finish at Watkins Glen in 2019, and an even more impressive 12th-place finish at the Charlotte Roval that same year.  He and crew chief, Drew Blickensderfer, have a good handle on these circuits.  Blickensderfer guided Marcos Ambrose to several Top-5 and Top-10 finishes on the road courses between 2012 and 2014, so that experience is quite valuable to McDowell.  The driver of the No. 34 Ford nabbed a strong 10th-place finish last summer on the Daytona Road Course.  We believe this driver and team are pegged to crack the Top 15 Sunday at Daytona.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Corey Lajoie – Lajoie showed his fantasy racing worth last Sunday with a strong ninth-place finish in the Daytona 500, just as we had predicted.  Superspeedway racing is really this young driver's gift at this point in his career.  Now it's time to move Lajoie from the sleepers list to the slow down list for the Daytona Road Course.  This style of racing has really been Lajoie's struggle.  These tracks have been the worst finishing tracks in his resume the last six years.  Recent finishes of 32nd-, 34th-, 27th-, 32nd- and 27th-place have been his last two seasons of racing on these style facilities.  The 30.4 average finish across that span is a huge warning sign.  Lajoie is always a deeper tier driver to consider on the superspeedways, but he's one to look past when we visit the winding circuits.    

Ross Chastain – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran kicked off his 2021 campaign with a strong seventh-place finish in the Daytona 500.  It was a great way for Chastain to start his season driving the team's No. 42 Chevrolet.  Now we have to readjust our expectations.  While Chastain has shown great skill on the superspeedway ovals in the past, he's shown quite the opposite on road courses.  Finishes of 24th-, 33rd-, 27th- and 22nd-place have been Chastain's body of work the last two seasons.  The 26.5 average finish is less than desirable.  His NASCAR Cup Series career on these style tracks is slightly worse with a 27.5 average finish.  Considering that Chastain has more experience in the Xfinity Series than the Cup Series, when we look there we see similar results.  He has just a 22-percent Top-10 rate on these style tracks and his average finish is two spots worse than his best tracks (larger ovals).    

Austin Dillon – Despite coming off a brilliant third-place finish in the Daytona 500, the No. 3 Chevy team is headed for rough waters this weekend at Daytona's road course.  The veteran driver has been slicing up intermediate and larger ovals the past few seasons, but this is far from that type of racing.  Dillon has historically struggled on the road circuits, and they're his worst tracks in his NASCAR resume.  In 15-career starts on these tracks, Dillon has never managed to grab a Top-10 finish and his average finish is a bloated 24.1.  Dillon's last two outings at the similar circuit in Charlotte the last two seasons have yielded finishes of 23rd- and 19th-place.  This is clearly an event and weekend where Dillon will be severely challenged to finish among the Top 20.  It's best to leave him on the bench for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace got in some good laps, however, he didn't get the finish he deserved in the Daytona 500 this past week.  He'll look to redeem that effort with a good finish on the Daytona Road Course this Sunday.  The 23XI driver will face some head winds though.  Road course racing hasn't exactly been Wallace's cup of tea in his five-season Cup Series career.  Wallace has an average finish of 26.8 on these style tracks and has not cracked the Top 20 in eight attempts.  We'd like to be optimistic and think that his new race team and crew chief Mike Wheeler will boost his performance.  However, we'll opt to take a wait-and-see approach to this weekend.  The No. 23 Toyota team is going to have a good season, but we doubt fantasy racing players will get a good return on the Daytona Road Course.