NASCAR Preview: Michigan Doubleheader

As we put the wild short-track action of New Hampshire behind us, we look forward to this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series will pay its first visit of the season to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 312 on Saturday and Consumers Energy 312 on Sunday.  

The two-mile oval in Brooklyn, Mich., has wowed us for years with some of the fastest speeds recorded in NASCAR.  At its height we saw a pole qualifying lap of 206.558 mph in 2014 by Jeff Gordon, and that still stands as the pole qualifying record at MIS.  The speeds have gradually drifted downward in recent seasons, thanks to multiple rule changes to the cars and the newest aero package.  In our last Michigan race last August, we saw Brad Keselowski claim the pole with his 190.471 mph qualifying lap.  That is better than 10 mph slower than the pole position at Michigan just the previous year (2018).  The reduced speeds have made it a bit easier to pass back in traffic, and only marginally better among the leaders.  With this being just our second two-mile oval event of the 2020 season, we'll see if teams can improve on the racing action we saw in Fontana back in March of this year.

The oval in Michigan has similar characteristics to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, which the NASCAR Cup Series raced at in March of this season.  Both tracks are two-mile ovals, but Michigan has a little more banking in the corners and straight-aways.  As a result, the oval in Brooklyn boasts higher average speeds as we have seen for the last several years.  As with Fontana, Michigan is all about aero handling and horsepower, and races at the large oval often come down to fuel strategy as well.  The track and racing produce long green-flag runs so the crew chiefs had better keep a close eye on their pit windows and fuel mileage over the course of this event.  Stage racing only complicates this strategy even more.  If recent races at MIS are any indicator, be prepared for about 12-16 lead changes and five or six caution flags in each of the doubleheader races this weekend, so the racing should be pretty continuous.  The result will be an emphasis on fuel efficiency, pit crew performance and pit strategy as these will be big keys to victory in both of these 312-mile events. 

Since we can look back on the early race at Fontana as essentially a preview of this event, those results will be a great guide to picking a fantasy racing lineup this weekend.   The similarities between the two ovals afford us this luxury.  Still, enough time has passed since that Fontana race to give us some pause about completely hanging our hats on those numbers.  Current trends for Michigan International Speedway will serve us well too.  The drivers who have performed well at MIS over the years are certainly worth some added scrutiny.  The loop stats shown below cover the last 15 years or 30 races at Michigan International Speedway.

Throughout the years Michigan International Speedway was a track of parity. It seemed that any manufacturer was a contender for victory lane each time we visited the Irish Hills. However, the last four seasons have seen Michigan become a track of streaks.  Chevrolet reeled off three-straight wins here between 2016 and 2017, and Ford drivers currently ride a four-race Michigan win streak.  Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano have combined to win the last four events at MIS, and squarely put Ford in control of Michigan dominance.  If the Ford streak hopes to continue at the two-mile oval the burden will largely fall on Stewart Haas Racing.  Harvick and Bowyer will be joined by Aric Almirola and Cole Custer in trying to defend what is currently SHR turf this weekend.

The Harvick-Bowyer-Logano victories at Michigan ended a three-race win streak at the track by Kyle Larson.  He was Chevrolet's most dominant driver at the huge oval during the past five seasons.  With this brand currently staging a resurgence, it will be interesting to see if any Chevrolet drivers can muster the speed to retake the Michigan crown this weekend.  The best-positioned drivers from this manufacturer to succeed would seem to be Chase Elliott, William Byron and Alex Bowman.  Those three could easily sneak up and start a new Chevy win streak at MIS.  As for Toyota, their drivers have been locked out of victory lane at Michigan since 2015.  Considering that Kyle Busch finished runner-up at the similar Fontana oval earlier this season, all eyes should be on the No. 18 Toyota this Sunday afternoon.  He could play the spoiler to get Toyota back into Michigan victory lane.  Other Toyota drivers that will head up the charge for that camp also include Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.  The duo were both good at Fontana early in the season and both are the best performing drivers for Toyota right now.  We'll examine recent hot streaks of this season and the history at Michigan International Speedway and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues this weekend at MIS.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski – We've seen the No. 2 Ford team live up to expectations in recent weeks.  Keselowski is fresh off his third victory of the season at New Hampshire this past week.  He and the Penske Racing team should be up to the task of a great follow-up performance at the huge Michigan oval.  He travels to his home state track with big expectations and confident for this weekend's Michigan doubleheader.  The Penske Racing star has never won at this home state track, but Keselowski does have 11-career Top-10 finishes at MIS and over 250-career laps led.  Earlier this season at the similar oval in Fontana, he led 6 laps and finished fifth in the Auto Club 400.  Keselowski will likely grab his first-career Michigan win in one of these two races this weekend.       

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star has excelled on two-mile ovals throughout his long NASCAR Cup Series career.  Harvick has three wins and 13 Top-5 finishes at just the Michigan oval alone.  He has won two of the last three Michigan events entering this weekend and has led a combined 145 laps over that three-race span.  It's really remarkable that Harvick hasn't won more than three victories at this huge oval.  He could possibly add to his trophy case in this weekend's Michigan doubleheader.  The way the No. 4 Ford team has been racing of late, you can't count out this driver and team out any weekend of the season.        

Denny Hamlin – Michigan International Speedway has been a good oval for the Joe Gibbs Racing star.  Hamlin nabbed a couple wins here earlier in his career and has 13 Top 10's at the track to-date.  Two of his last three Michigan starts have netted Top-10 finishes, including his runner-up finish in his last start at MIS.  That coincides with his two-mile oval level of performance of the last year.  Hamlin has one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his last four Fontana and Michigan starts.  These two-mile tracks haven't held a lot of wins for the No. 11 team, but Hamlin has been pretty strong on them.  Considering that Hamlin has a victory and runner-up finish in his last two races entering this weekend, we should see a sharp and motivated driver of the No. 11 Toyota in these twin Michigan races.      

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex doesn't have the greatest career stats at Michigan, but he's been pretty good at MIS in his last two starts.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota claimed third- and fourth-place finishes at this oval last season.  To an extent we can throw the history books out the window this weekend as this driver and team are racing well coming to Michigan International Speedway.  During this veteran driver's current hot streak, Truex has one runner-up finish and a pair of third-place finishes in his last four events.  His Michigan history shows just 11 Top-10 finishes in 28-career starts and no victories.  However, the veteran driver has led 275 laps in his career at this facility.  The current hot streak combined with Truex's improving Michigan record point to a possible run at victory lane at MIS. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford pulled out a Top-5 finish at New Hampshire last weekend, despite some struggles at one point.  It was a gritty performance in the face of many obstacles, and should propel him into the Irish Hills.  The Penske Racing star has always loved competing at Michigan International Speedway.  Logano owns three victories and 15 Top-10 finishes in 22-career starts at MIS.  His driver rating checks in at a strong 99.3 at this facility, which ranks him among the elite in NASCAR.  Logano has led over 200 laps in his last three-combined started between Fontana and Michigan.  We should see a similar performance in this weekend's FireKeepers Casino 312 and Consumers Energy 312.

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been mired in some struggles of late.  Busch crashed and finished last at Loudon this past week, and that's the primary reason for his demotion to the solid plays list this week.  At Michigan International Speedway, he would normally qualify for the contenders list in this article.  His recent Michigan resume has been pretty strong.  Busch rides a six-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this weekend's doubleheader.  Over that span he's led 79 laps, but hasn't really been a major factor to win.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has been even more impressive the last two seasons on the two-mile oval circuit, with his best performances coming at the oval in Fontana.  Busch has six Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes combined between Fontana and Michigan since 2018.    

Chase Elliott – The young driver has been sorting out his season in recent weeks.  After some July struggles, Elliott rallied back to the Top 10 this past week with his ninth-place finish at New Hampshire.  That's a good sign going forward.  The two-mile tracks have been a pretty consistent offering for the last two seasons.  Four of his last seven starts between Fontana and Michigan have netted Top-10 finishes.  His fourth-place finish earlier this season at Fontana was clearly a highlight of the span.  It's boosted Elliott's average finish across those seven starts to a respectable 11.1.  His last start at Michigan last summer netted a ninth-place finish in the Consumer's Energy 400.  The No. 9 Chevy team won't likely be a player for victory lane this weekend, but Elliott will be a face among the Top 10 in both races.

Kurt Busch – Three-time Michigan winner, Busch, should bring it strong this weekend in the FireKeepers Casino 312 and Consumers Energy 312. Consistency was an issue for him at MIS from 2010 through 2014, but the Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has been far more consistent at this facility in recent seasons.  Since Busch's victory here in 2015, he's racked up five Top-10 finishes in the Irish Hills.  Three of his last four starts at the two-mile Michigan oval have netted Top 10's, including a runner-up finish in last June's FireKeepers Casino 400.  Busch has been quite impressive on the oval in Fontana as well.  His last seven combined starts between Michigan and Fontana have netted three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes.  That's two strong seasons of performance on these two-mile ovals.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Michigan & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is looking to hit the reset button this weekend after two subpar outings at Kansas and Loudon the last two weeks.  This is our primary reason for moving him from the solid plays to the sleepers list this week.  Blaney will look to get back into his Top-10 ways in this double dip at Michigan.  He has 10-career Cup starts at this facility with two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes.  Three of those Michigan Top 10's have come in his last four starts.  That recent success is a big reason for our optimism this weekend.  To reinforce those performances, the driver of the No. 12 Ford has been improved on the sister two-mile oval in Fontana the last couple seasons.  His last seven starts between the two tracks have netted five Top-10 finishes for a stellar 71-percent rate over the span. 

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran continues to be one of the hottest drivers in the series right now with an amazing nine-race Top-10 streak in tow as we come to Michigan.  Almirola will ride that momentum into the Irish Hills this weekend.  He brings that Top-10 potential to Michigan International Speedway, considering how well he raced on these two-mile ovals last season for SHR.  Almirola nabbed an eighth-place finish at Fontana earlier this season, and that should be a pretty good indicator of potential for this twin bill at Michigan.  The veteran driver's subpar career numbers at the two-mile Michigan oval will cause some fantasy players to pass on the No. 10 SHR team this weekend, but Almirola should stay hot in the FireKeepers Casino 312 and Consumers Energy 312.

Alex Bowman – With the No. 88 Chevrolet team's eighth- and 15th-place finishes the last two weeks there's hope that Bowman is poised for something special at Michigan this weekend.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been very strong on these two-mile ovals the last two seasons.  Bowman dominated, leading 110 laps earlier this season to win at the Fontana two-mile oval.  Add two that his pair of Top-10 finishes last season at Michigan, and Bowman is riding a three-race Top-10 streak on these style tracks coming into the Michigan doubleheader.  Bowman's career numbers at this facility are nothing to write home about, but we're most interested in those pair of Top 10's he collected here in 2019, as well as that eye-popping victory he registered at Fontana earlier this season.  The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet has a ton of fantasy racing upside this weekend at Michigan.

Cole Custer – The rookie driver has elevated his game the last several weeks.  Custer has one victory, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last five starts since Indianapolis.  That surge has taken him to the head of this very deep rookie class.  This weekend will be the Stewart Haas Racing rookie's Cup Series debut at the Michigan oval, but that should be of little concern.  Custer has availed himself well in these track debuts throughout the 2020 campaign.  His debut at the similar oval in Fontana netted a respectable 18th-place finish in March of this year, but he's a far more experienced driver since then.  Two of Custer's three-career Xfinity Series starts at Michigan netted Top 10's and that will be valuable experience for the No. 41 Ford team in this weekend doubleheader.    

Tyler Reddick – Reddick has been nearly as red hot as Cole Custer the last five races.  The RCR rookie has piled up one Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in the last five events.  The two are having quite a battle in the pursuit for 2020's Rookie of the Year award.  Reddick will also be making his Cup Series debut this weekend at Michigan International Speedway.  However, we got a good preview of what's likely to come with his Fontana outing in March.  The young driver piloted the No. 8 Chevrolet to an impressive 11th-place finish at Fontana earlier this year.  That dovetails nicely with his Xfinity Series record at MIS.  Reddick grabbed one victory and two Top 10's in his three starts at Michigan in NASCAR's junior circuit.  He has a lot of potential in the two races on tap for this weekend in the Irish Hills.      

Austin Dillon – The No. 3 Richard Childress Racing team will be delighted to see a big oval this weekend, and two races at one to boot.  Dillon has been a dubious short track performer this season, but the intermediate and larger ovals have been good venues for this veteran driver.  Dillon has racked up three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in his last seven starts between Fontana and Michigan.  The average finish across the span stands at a respectable 14.4. Michigan International Speedway has yielded two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes to Dillon over the years, and a respectable 16.0 average finish.  While those are not eye-popping numbers they do illustrate the upside potential for this driver and team that are having a pretty good season with crew chief Justin Alexander calling the shots.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Matt Kenseth – The recent misery continued for Kenseth at New Hampshire this past week.  The veteran driver battled an ill-handling race car and then battled tire problems through multiple encounters with the outside wall.  Eventually he would crash and DNF in the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.  Kenseth has a ton of Michigan accomplishments to his name.  With three victories and a staggering 20 Top-10 finishes here since the year 2000, he's a time-tested performer at this oval.  However, we have to consider Kenseth's recent slump, and the fact that he's only made one start on a two-mile oval the last two seasons.  When we look back on his last two Michigan finishes of 24th- and 33rd-place in 2017 and 2018, we've seen enough to validate our bench recommendation.     

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time champion is a one-time Michigan winner, but this is far from one of his favorite tracks.  With 13 Top-10 finishes in 36 starts (36-percent) Michigan ranks as one of Johnson's bottom tier tracks in terms of average finish and Top-10 rate.  He's only cracked the Top 10 twice in his last 10 Michigan starts, and that's not a very encouraging statistic.  Last season Johnson collected disappointing 15th- and 34th-place finishes at the two-mile oval.  His two Top-10 finishes in his last seven-combined starts (29-percent) between Fontana and Michigan are another red flag.  It would be a good idea to take a break from Johnson for now in weekly lineup leagues.

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer's career history at Michigan International Speedway has been pretty good.  With 12 Top 10's in 28 starts, he checks in at a semi-respectable 43-percent rate.  Recent outings haven't been a real mixed bag with 12th-, 35th- and 37th-place finishes.  Those have dropped his Top-10 rate at MIS to its current level.  His 23rd-place finish after starting on the pole earlier this season at the similar oval in Fontana is another cautionary tale.  Bowyer's lowly 14-percent Top-10 rate on the two-mile ovals the last two seasons is his ultimate indictment.  The lack of consistency, and likelihood to find trouble have taken him from a solid play to a fantasy racing no-go at the two-mile Michigan oval.

Ryan Newman – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran is currently mired in a season-long Top-10 drought.  Since his Top 10 and crash at Daytona, Newman has failed to crack the Top 10 since his return to racing.  Newman is a two-time Michigan winner from way back (2003 and 2004), but that might as well be ancient history in terms of racing.  The sad fact is that the two-mile Michigan oval has been a place of struggles and consistency issues for Newman over the years.  37-career starts have only yielded 10 Top-10 finishes (27-percent), and he has just one Top 10 in his last four visits to the Irish Hills.  He missed Fontana earlier this season due to his Daytona injuries, and that's valuable experience Newman could have used to prepare for this doubleheader.  Keep Newman out of the fantasy lineup at Michigan International Speedway.