NASCAR Draft Kit: 2019 Sleepers & Busts

Erik Jones
Car: 20
Owner: Joe Gibbs Racing
Manufacturer: Toyota

Jones is a star in the making, and there's no doubt about that. Much like Chase Elliott, Jones is taking a couple years to cultivate his talents and improve his driving skills before the wins start piling up, and championships become a possibility. The trend line in the statistical table above only teases the possibilities for the 2019 campaign. Jones became a ringer on the circuit's many intermediate ovals last season. Seven of his 18 Top-10 finishes last year came on those cookie cutter ovals. That bodes well for the future. The drivers that can master those ovals are going to be very successful racing in NASCAR's top division. Joe Gibbs Racing will continue to give this young driver every opportunity to grow and improve. This season holds a lot of potential for the driver of the No. 20 Toyota, so his upside is not limited. Jones could wildly exceed expectations and reward players who make him a part of their fantasy racing teams.

Alex Bowman
Car: 88
Owner: Hendrick Motorsports
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

After sitting out the 2017 season, Bowman was back in action last year as he took over the No. 88 Chevrolet of the retired Dale Earnhardt Jr. It was his best opportunity racing in NASCAR's top division to-date, and the stats bear that out. However, the campaign fell short in many respects as Bowman didn't crack the win column, and he failed to advance beyond the first round of the Chase. A lot of the inconsistency and struggles for this driver and team were due in part to the switch to the new Chevrolet Camaro in 2018. A number of Chevy teams struggled with this change. As the season wore on, all these teams adapted to the new car and improved, Bowman included. He will return to the No. 88 team this season and remain paired with crew chief Greg Ives. We should see some growth and improvement in Bowman and this team. With well over 100 starts now in NASCAR's top division, that experience should start to show with this strong race team. He should push the bar a bit higher with his performance in 2019.

Kyle Larson
Car: 42
Owner: Chip Ganassi Racing
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

While last season was anything but successful for Larson and the No. 42 team, it still was reasonably good from a statistical side. Although he lacked the push to get into victory lane in 2018, Larson still racked up close to the same Top 5 and Top 10 numbers he posted in his four-win 2017 campaign. The young ace also fell into about the same place in the final driver standings. If anything the season can be summed up as a lost year without much progress. Larson wants badly to race with the "big 3" and contend for wins and championships. He has that driving ability, so it's not an unreasonable expectation. We still maintain that Larson's ceiling has not been reached yet. It's going to take something to nudge this team to greater heights, but the good news is that they're very close. 2019 could be that breakout season Larson has been working towards, at the very least they have a good full season under their belts with the new Chevy Camaro. The learning curve is over for now.

William Byron
Car: 24
Owner: Hendrick Motorsports
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

As the old cliché goes, there's nowhere to go but up from here. That certainly applies when it comes to Byron and his race team. 2018 was a long, tough rookie campaign for the young driver. With only four Top 10s for the season, there were many tough lessons learned along the way. However, the future is very bright. Byron is super talented and his racing in the lower divisions of NASCAR prove this fact. His four Xfinity Series win and seven Camping World Truck Series wins didn't happen by accident. If anything, Byron can only be knocked for his lack of age and experience. At just 21-years-old, and with only 57-combined starts in the lower divisions of NASCAR, Byron may have been just a bit green to take over the No. 24 Chevrolet last year. The pairing with championship crew chief, Chad Knaus, this season should pay immediate returns. Byron is a young, raw talent for Knaus to mold in 2019.

Denny Hamlin
Car: 11
Owner: Joe Gibbs Racing
Manufacturer: Toyota

Hamlin had about the worst season he's had in recent memory in 2018. He went winless for the year for the first time in his 13-season career. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota posted a five-season low in terms of Top-10 finishes with just 17. The 11th-place standings finish was the third-worst finish in the standings of his 13-season career. Many things were difficult for this driver and team last season. There was seemingly no explanation as to why this was the case. Crew Chief Mike Wheeler had guided Hamlin to five victories and 44 Top-10 finishes in the two prior campaigns, but things just didn't come together in 2018. Wheeler has left the team for Leavine Family Racing, so Chris Gabehart will take over at crew chief. For Hamlin, it will be a new season, and new chance to prove himself. We expect to see him return to the 2-win, 20-Top 10 level that we've become accustomed to in recent seasons.

Austin Dillon
Car: 3
Owner: Richard Childress Racing
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Dillon has registered a predictable level of performance the last three seasons. He's typically been a Chase participant, and that thanks in large part to a couple of victories in the last two campaigns. However, consistency in finishing has been the major problem. Dillon has been more of a Top-15 finisher most weekends than a Top-10 finisher. That's evident from the statistical table above. What we began to see with the No. 3 team down the stretch run of last season was more speed. Dillon was strong through the Chase with four Top-10 and seven Top-15 finishes in the final 10 races of last year. We believe this driver and team can carry that momentum forward into 2019. What we should see is a return to the Top 10 totals Dillon posted in 2016, a return to double digits. RCR is still facing an uphill battle to the bigger teams in terms of equipment and people, but we believe Dillon and the team have progressed and laid a good foundation for success this campaign.

BUSTS

Kurt Busch
Car: 1
Owner: Chip Ganssi Racing
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Busch is coming off arguably one of his best seasons in recent memory. He nabbed career win No. 30 with his victory at Bristol during the summer, and collected 22 Top-10 finishes on his way towards finishing seventh in the driver standings. The 40-year-old veteran parted ways with Stewart Haas Racing, and brought to an end their five-year relationship. Busch will now take over the No. 1 Chevrolet of Chip Ganassi Racing, which was the car Jamie McMurray piloted for the last several years. This transition is a win-win for Ganassi as he brings in one of the most successful, long tenure drivers in the series. However, for Busch it will present many challenges. We don't doubt his driving skill at all at age 40, but coming off the season he just posted it will be challenging to live up to those marks. We expect Busch to miss victory lane in 2019, and possibly post middle-teens in terms of Top 10s. In terms of fantasy racing, don't pay 2018 prices for Busch this season. There will be a downturn.

Ryan Newman
Car: 6
Owner: Roush Fenway Racing
Manufacturer: Ford

The 17-season veteran steps from Richard Childress Racing to Roush Fenway Racing for 2019. Newman will take over the No. 6 Ford that Trevor Bayne has primarily driven since 2015, although Bayne did share the ride with Matt Kenseth during the 2018 campaign. Roush hopes Newman will bring some stability and improvement to the floundering team. That will be a tough task for anyone, and as Kenseth showed last year, things are not all well inside this race team. Kenseth labored to just two Top-10 finishes in 15 starts with this race team. Newman will attempt to pick up where Kenseth left off with his Top 10s at Phoenix and Homestead at the end of last season. That's the good news. The bad news is that we've already begun to track some regression in Newman's seasonal stats. There is some skill erosion happening with the 40-year-old driver. He has just one victory in the last five seasons, and his nine Top-10 finishes of 2018 were the third-lowest total of his career. The downward trajectory of this driver, and uncertain nature of this race team are a risky combination.

Aric Almirola
Car: 10
Owner: Stewart Haas Racing
Manufacturer: Ford

While last season was officially Almirola's breakout campaign, it was by far his best season ever in NASCAR's top division. His move to Stewart Haas Racing's No. 10 Ford paid huge dividends. Almirola grabbed his second-career victory with a win at Talladega last October. He would also post career-bests in Top-5s and Top-10s with four and 17 respectively. It all added up to a deep run into the Chase and a brilliant fifth-place finish in the final point standings. We know Almirola will hang onto much of this performance in 2019, but we have to wonder was the breakout the high water mark? Given what the veteran driver accomplished, it's an intriguing question. Considering that SHR and the other Ford teams are moving to the new Mustang this season, the expectation of a slight downturn is probably warranted. We saw how the Chevy teams struggled with the new Camaro last season, and it could take some time for the Ford teams to make that same transition. At the end of the day, Almirola will be good, just not as good as he was last season.

Daniel Hemric
Car: 8
Owner: Richard Childress Racing
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Hemric makes the jump from a brief, two-season Xfinity Series career and into NASCAR's top division this year. He's a bit older than your typical rookie at almost 28-years-old (January birthday). That will certainly help. Prior to Hemric's Xfinity Series exploits, he spent parts of five seasons racing in the truck series, which amounted to 50 total starts. So this Richard Childress Racing driver is not short on age or experience. Hemric tallied a strong 23 Top-10 finishes last year in the Xifnity Series, but no wins, which added up to a strong third-place finish in the standings. He'll get a crash course in Monster Energy Cup Series racing this year as he takes over the old No. 31 Chevrolet and it's rebranded the No. 8. As we saw with William Byron last season, Xfinity Series success doesn't always translate to immediate success at the Cup level. The fact that Hemric has just two starts, both last season, in a Cup car is an ominous sign. That lack of experience indicates a lot of struggles lie ahead.

Ryan Preece
Car: 47
Owner: JTG Daugherty Racing
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Preece faces a tall task in taking over a team that has finished outside the Top 20 in each of the last two seasons. The rookie takes over for the departed A.J. Allmendinger and will be behind the wheel of the No. 47 Chevrolet. Preece has just five starts of Cup Series experience, all of which came way back in 2015 for owner Mike Curb. Since then, he's been focused primarily on the Xfinity Series, but also racing in some much lower touring divisions of NASCAR. Preece is fresh off his best Xfinity Series campaign to-date with one win and 10 Top-10 finishes in 15 starts last season for Joe Gibbs Racing. At 28-years-old, he's older than your average rookie, but still lacks the crucial experience in Cup cars to make a quick and solid transition. We could be looking at a long season of learning behind the wheel for Preece and the No. 47 JTG team.

Daniel Suarez
Car: 41
Owner: Stewart Haas Racing
Manufacturer: Ford

When you look at what Suarez accomplished the last two seasons for Joe Gibbs Racing, there were high points and low points both on the map. His narrow-miss of victory lane at Pocono last summer would be one of those highlights. Suarez led 29 laps and narrowly lost to Kyle Busch that afternoon, finishing runner-up. However, we also have to take note of his nine-race Top-10 drought that preceded that Pocono race. For all the good, there was just as much disappointment for Suarez in 2018. His anticipated move this season to Stewart Haas Racing is hoped to be a career booster. However, before you start penciling in "Kurt Busch-like" numbers for the young driver this season, we must realize the team change isn't all that's needed here. Lack of week-to-week consistency has been Suarez's biggest weakness. It's going to take time for him to learn successful habits and race week preparation. Don't look for Suarez to pop just because of the team change in 2019, but we look more for him to flat line and continue racing inconsistently.