This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
We travel from one iconic NASCAR track in Talladega to another at Dover International Speedway this weekend. As its nickname the "Monster Mile" implies, Dover is an intermediate 1.0 mile track that features a lot of high banking with shot and narrow straightaways -- making it a tricky environment for drivers. Bristol is the closest comparable track of the races already run this season, but the story of that race was tire falloff, not something we can project this season. As a result, I'll be relying on drive history at the Wurth 400 as well as recent form.
While the track is demanding, it will likely give us a reprieve from the chaos through the race we saw at Texas two weeks ago and the pileup that occurred right before the finish line at Talladega. However, we do see big names regularly run into various issues, with last year's examples being Joey Logano, Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch.
Wurth 400 PrizePicks Selections
Alex Bowman – over 31.5 NASCAR points (ninth place or better)
Bowman is a tricky evaluation due to his limited sample at Dover with the Next Gen car, but his record at the track is impossible to argue with. In his last six runnings of the Wurth 400, Bowman has finished fifth or better on five occasions. Rightfully regarded as the weakest of the Hendrick drivers, Bowman has very quietly finished inside the top five four times this season. That includes a fourth-place finish at Bristol, though as was noted that was a very unique race.
Ty Gibbs- under 32.5 NASCAR points (10th place or worse with no stage wins)
Gibbs has certainly had his moments of promise this year, but he's remained overvalued in most NASCAR markets. He's also performed well at the intermediate tracks (Phoenix and Las Vegas specifically), so it's certainly possible that Gibbs will finish inside the top ten for the sixth time this season. Things haven't gotten particularly well of late for him across a variety of tracks, however, as his average finish across the last four races is 17.5.
Denny Hamlin – under 35.5 NASCAR points (sixth place or worse with no stage wins)
Hamlin has been the definition of all or nothing this season. It would probably come as a surprise to most to learn that he has only two top-10 finishes this season, both of them just happen to be wins. Part of what makes Hamlin such a good driver is his willingness to do what it takes to win without backing down, but that's also cost him. The race at Fort Worth was a prime example, as he could have lifted off the gas and almost certainly come in second, but instead, he tried to pass Chase Elliott on a high line that hadn't worked all day and wrecked. Hamlin can win any race, but he's the epitome of checkers or wreckers right now.
William Byron – over 35.5 NASCAR Points (fifth place or better with no stage wins)
Kyle Larson- under 37.5 NASCAR points (third place or better with no stage wins)
Byron is my over pick among the drivers with elite projections for the week. The choice was ultimately between he and Larson, with the differences being their projection as well as their consistency. Unsurprisingly, both have had significant success at Dover, but Larson has some of the same issues as Hamlin. He has four top-five finishes this season, but he's otherwise finished outside the top ten. There's always the risk that Larson runs away from the field for his third victory of the season, but the under is still a strong pick.
Byron has the same upside as Larson as illustrated by his three wins. He's also finished inside the top ten on seven occasions and the top five four times. He's been a steadier hand to this point in the season, which is useful on PrizePicks.
Christopher Bell – under 34.5 NASCAR points (sixth place or worse with no stage wins)
Bell has reached the championship in the last two seasons after going through rocky stretches earlier in each year. There's a good chance he turns things around yet again in 2024, but it's safe to say he's in a rut entering this weekend's race. Bell has three consecutive finishes of 17th or worse, and he's taken on several penalties in that span. He'll catch fire at some point this season, but for now, I'm willing to pick against his historical success at the track and instead side with his recent form.
