This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
The Daytona 500 is in the rearview mirror, and we'll head to another superspeedway this weekend with the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. That means we're likely to see pack racing with a lot of bumping and tight drafting between cars for the second consecutive race. That leads to high-variance results, which we also saw at Dayton with two big wrecks to close that race. However, that doesn't mean there aren't some differences in what we'll see from week-to-week, as the laps in Atlanta are only 1.5 miles as opposed to 2.5 at Daytona.
There is also a difference in the PrizePicks format for this week. Scoring (pre-qualifying) is based on NASCAR points, rather than fantasy scoring. To translate, that simply means the winner of the race gets 45 points, with each following finished receiving one point fewer. Stage wins are also worth one point (three total stages). In addition to picking higher or lower on a driver's total points, there are also picks available for a driver's starting position. Those picks are based solely Saturday's qualifying session.
If PrizePicks moves to the fantasy scoring format after qualifying (this scoring was explained in last week's article), I'll post some of my favorite selections in the comments.
With some background out of the way, let's get to some picks.
Starting Position
Joey Logano – Less (better) than 5.5
This is an aggressive number, because a driver can turn in a solid qualifying performance and still fail to clear this bar. However, Logano has been dominant in qualifying at the Atlanta Motor Speedway since it was repaved with banking increased and a narrowed track in 2021. In six races since, he's qualified inside the top four in four of six chances. We saw Logano have excellent pace at Daytona, so his overall track record plus the very small sample of this season combine to suggest he'll be in good form again.
Ryan Blaney – Less than 6.5
The analysis for Blaney is nearly identical to that of Logano, but his recent run at this track is perhaps even more impressive. He's qualified inside the top six in each of his last four races in Atlanta and inside the top three in three of his last four. His average start since 2021 is 6.3 – tied with, you guessed it… Logano.
William Byron – Over 8.5
Byron is the top dog in the sport right now thanks to his victory at the Daytona 500. His track record at Atlanta isn't exactly bad, but he's started no higher than ninth since the track was redone, and he's started 11th or worse in five straight races at the Speedway. Byron has two wins at this track, but those have required that he move through the pack rather than him dominating the race from the front of the field.
NASCAR Points
Erik Jones – over 28.5 (top-14 finish)
Legacy Motor Club was a team to watch particularly closely at the Daytona 500 due to their switch from Chevy to Toyota as its manufacturer. It's safe to say it passed the first test. We first saw Jimmie Johnson secure a place in the race during Duel 1 (he suffered early damage that compromised his full race), while Jones finished fifth in same Duel. John Hunter Nemechek finished fourth in Duel 2. Nemechek and Jones then went onto finish seventh and eighth-place finishes, respectively, in the race. No prop is available for Nemechek, but Jones has secured top-14 finishes in four straight races at Atlanta.
Kyle Larson – under 28.5 (15th or worse)
It's not necessarily comfortable picking against one of the best drivers in the world, but superspeedways haven't been Larson's best place for success. He'll almost certainly qualify inside the top-10, but the bet is that he'll slip down the pack. Larson has failed to finish three of the last four races in Atlanta, so his average finish is a bit skewed. Those were mostly flukes (he was crashed out of second place in this race last year after Aric Almirola blew a tire directly in front of him), so that's not something we can expect to continue to occur. On the other hand, something always seems to go wrong for him on this style of track. There won't be many times to pick the under Larson for the rest of the season, but this is one.
Kyle Busch – over 30.5 (top 12 with no stage win)
There was a lot of conversation about Busch last weekend because he's yet to take home a Daytona 500 win during his decorated career. The same issue in Atlanta hasn't plagued him. Granted, he hasn't won at the track since 2013, but Busch has proven capable of posting consistent finishes inside the top 10. The most compelling part of his performances has been that he's gotten results regardless of qualifying form, showing the ability to both move up through the pack and maintain strong starting position.
Chase Elliott – over 31.5 (top 11 with no stage win)
We've picked against Hendrick drivers twice now, which won't be typical for the rest of the schedule. We'll break that trend with Elliott, who has an excellent track record in Atlanta. Even in his down 2023 season, he managed a 13th place finish in the summer race. His 14th-place finish last week at Daytona was also deceiving, as he ran in the front pack most of the day until losing track position on the late restart.
Ryan Blaney– over 32.5 (top 10 with no stage win)
We tackled Blaney's track record of qualifying well in Atlanta, and that's carried over to races. Since 2021, Blaney has finished five of six races in Atlanta in the top 10, including three top-five finishes. He's among the better Superspeedway drivers, particularly of those available on PrizePicks. This is one of my favorite picks of the weekend.
