This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Pala Casino 400
Location: Fontana, Calif.
Course: Auto Club Speedway
Format: 2.0-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 200
NASCAR Pala Casino 400 Race Preview
The NASCAR Cup Series heads west for its next race following last weekend's Daytona 500. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got the jumpstart on the rest of the garage with his overtime victory, putting him in prime position for the championship playoffs, too. The other driver smiling as Daytona disappears in the rearview mirror is Joey Logano, who leads the points in a positive start to his title defense. Both drivers have plenty of work to do to maintain their positions with many other competitors left licking their wounds from the high attrition at Daytona. After Daytona the "real" season starts, and fans are anxious to get a better look at the true 2023 pecking order this week.
Sunday's Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway will be the first of a three-race trip to the west coast for NASCAR. This 2.0-mile oval features one of the roughest track surfaces on the schedule. That roughness challenges tires and drivers, encouraging close racing throughout the field and more competitive racing in general. This will be the last time the Cup Series tackles this configuration of the speedway with plans in place to eventually transform the facility into a 0.5-mile short track. Kyle Larson won the race last season with a charge from the 13th starting position, avoiding tire issues and crashes to score his first win of the 2022 season. That was the first visit to the track with the current generation of car, and it produced a great show with 32 total lead changes and 12 cautions.
Key Stats at Auto Club Speedway
- Number of races: 32
- Winners from pole: 3
- Winners from top-5 starters: 13
- Winners from top-10 starters: 17
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 7
- Fastest race: 160.166 mph
Previous 10 Fontana Winners
2021 - Kyle Larson
2020 - Alex Bowman
2019 - Kyle Busch
2018 - Martin Truex Jr.
2017 - Kyle Larson
2016 - Jimmie Johnson
2015 - Brad Keselowski
2014 - Kyle Busch
2013 - Kyle Busch
2012 - Tony Stewart
Auto Club Speedway is a wide and fast D-shaped oval with a very abrasive surface. Goodyear will bring a new set of tires to the track this weekend, incorporating findings from last season as well as tests at other tracks. The rough surface means teams will likely opt for four-tire stops all throughout the day, and drivers that can manage their tire wear the best should have an advantage. Tire pressure will also be key. Faster lap times may be possible by testing the limits of the tire, but the risk of overstepping those bounds could mean the afternoon ending against the wall. With four-tire stops being the expectation teams will have to be mistake-free on pit road. The competitiveness of this track and its high speeds means falling behind early could be detrimental. Tire concerns and fast racing is likely to produce plenty of caution periods, though. Last year there were 12 yellows for 59 laps. Those cautions open the door for teams to use unique pit strategy to gain track position, but overall power and speed should be expected to be a larger factor.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Pala Casino 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $10,800
Denny Hamlin - $10,600
Chase Elliott - $10,500
Kyle Busch - $10,300
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Ross Chastain - $9,900
Joey Logano - $9,700
Christopher Bell - $9,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,300
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
William Byron - $8,900
Bubba Wallace - $8,700
Austin Dillon - $8,100
Brad Keselowski - $7,900
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Chase Briscoe - $7,500
Chris Buescher - $6,900
Ryan Preece - $6,700
AJ Allmendinger - $6,400
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Pala Casino 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Larson - $10,800
Joey Logano - $9,700
Christopher Bell - $9,500
Chase Briscoe - $7,500
Ryan Preece - $6,700
Harrison Burton - $5,500
Defending Auto Club Speedway winner Kyle Larson (DK $10,800, FD $14,000) is aiming for a repeat this week. His 18th-place finish in the Daytona 500 leaves him one spot out of the playoff positions this week, but Larson has two Auto Club Speedway victories to his credit. Backing him up in the lower-risk lineup is Joey Logano (DK $9,700, FD $11,000), the kind of consistency. Logano's title defense is off to a great start as he holds the points lead after one race. It's a long season, but Logano has consistently proven himself capable of navigating the schedule to be a feature in the playoffs. While he doesn't have a Fontana win on his resume he does have eight top-10s from 15 visits, including last year's fifth-place run. Another driver consistently quick is Christopher Bell (DK $9,500, FD $12,500). Bell led 20 laps and finished fifth at Daytona and enters this week's race fourth in points. Two engine failures in two starts mean Bell's average finish at this track is 37th, which is not representative of his potential. Fantasy players should disregard those past results and expect a top-10 run from him this week.
Chase Briscoe (DK $7,500, FD $6,500) has only one Auto Club Speedway start under his belt but it was pretty good. He started last year's race 24th and finished 16th, leading 20 laps along the way. Similarly, Ryan Preece (DK $6,700, FD $5,500) only has two prior starts at this track. This week's race will be his first in the series at the venue since 2020. He led four laps last week at Daytona before a crash took him out of contention. He remains a driver with plenty of potential for top finishes in 2023. Another driver who showed potential last week was Harrison Burton (DK $5,500, FD $3,000). Burton led nine laps before falling to 26th at Daytona and appears to have made strides forward for 2023. He crashed out of this race last season, his only series Auto Club Speedway appearance.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $10,300
Ross Chastain - $9,900
Tyler Reddick - $9,100
Daniel Suarez - $7,300
Chris Buescher - $6,900
AJ Allmendinger - $6,400
The higher-risk lineup for the Pala Casino 400 has a few more questions about selections with some drivers with plenty of potential getting themselves situated in new surroundings. One of those high-potential candidates is Kyle Busch (DK $10,300, FD $11,500). His speed at Daytona was in little doubt given Richard Childress Racing's superspeedway program. This week's race will be the first chance for fantasy players to assess how quickly and comfortably he is settling into his new team. Busch has four wins at this track, and the previous driver of his No. 8 machine led 90 laps in last year's race. Those statistics should combine to make Busch a top choice this week despite being with a new manufacturer and team.
Ross Chastain (DK $9,900, FD $9,500) started answering the question of how much of his 2022 success could carry over into 2023. He leaves Daytona sixth in points with six laps led in the 500. He has four prior starts on this week's oval with a best finish of 17th, though. Tyler Reddick (DK $9,100, FD $9,000) was the guy who led those 90 laps at this track in the No. 8 machine last season. Reddick is now with Toyota at 23XI Racing and Toyota, which creates some questions but his pace in this race last season makes him an attractive add to rosters this week. Like Chastain, another driver aiming to carry last season's success through to 2023 is Daniel Suarez (DK $7,300, FD $6,800). Suarez finished an impressive fourth in this race last season. He has two top-10 finishes here from five starts, too. He enters this second race 12th in points and will feel that he can use this circuit to push himself further up the standings.
Tracks with rough pavement were places RFK Racing excelled in 2022. This track coupled with the team's strength at Daytona a week ago should make Chris Buescher (DK $6,900, FD $4,500) a name fantasy players shouldn't skip over this week. Another driver fantasy players will want to keep in mind is AJ Allmendinger (DK $6,400, FD $4,800). He put himself in position to win late in the race last week and started on pole at Auto Club Speedway in the Xfinity Series race last season. This will be his first Cup Series start at the track since 2018, but he was seventh in that Xfinity race last season and has two Cup Series top-10 finishes at the track.
