This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Hollywood Casino 400
Location: Kansas City, Kan.
Course: Kansas Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile tri-oval
Laps: 267
NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Race Preview
Kyle Larson closed out the first round of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with a dominant performance a week ago at Bristol. The Hendrick Motorsports driver was never passed for the lead under green flag conditions, won both stages, and led 462 of the race's 500 laps. He and the team's confidence will be riding high as the second round of eliminations commences this week at Kansas Speedway, too. Larson won at the track earlier this season over Chris Buescher in what was the closest finish in Cup Series history. That race was an exciting one that featured 27 lead changes among 10 different drivers. Denny Hamlin led the most laps that day, but it was Larson's Chevrolet that edged out Buescher's Ford in the overtime finish. With Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL next up in this round, many of the 12 remaining championship combatants will be hopeful of getting a good result this week at Kansas, which could insulate them from any unexpected happenings in the next two races. The final eight championship contenders will start to emerge starting this week in the second season stop at Kansas.
Key Stats at Kansas Speedway
- Number of races: 37
- Winners from pole: 7
- Winners from top-5 starters: 18
- Winners from top-10 starters: 25
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 3
- Fastest race: 152.057 mph
Previous 10 Kansas Winners
2024 spring - Kyle Larson
2023 fall - Tyler Reddick
2023 spring - Denny Hamlin
2022 fall - Bubba Wallace
2022 spring - Kurt Busch
2021 fall - Kyle Larson
2021 spring - Kyle Busch
2020 fall - Joey Logano
2020 spring - Denny Hamlin
2019 fall - Denny Hamlin
Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with progressive banking that, when coupled with the current generation of car, has produced exciting and close racing throughout the field. Being a 1.5-mile oval, track position and horsepower remain critical components of success, though. Helping encourage the close racing is the track's progressive banking and wide turns. Those characteristics provide several grooves for drivers to leverage as their handling changes, also allowing them different lines to get clean air through the turns, which enables passing. However, very few races at the track have been won by drivers starting outside of the top 10. In fact, the last nine races have been won by drivers starting 10th or better and the most recent race won by someone starting further back was in 2019. The spring race, while producing the ultra-close finish between Larson and Buescher, featured seven total cautions of which five were unplanned. All five of those unplanned yellows came in the final stage. Long runs were the order of the day until the final miles threw a wrench into those plans. Teams will likely aim for long-run pace, but additional cautions this Sunday could enable cars starting further back to make adjustments to improve position. Fantasy players should also note that the spring race indicated that two-tire stops could be successful. Teams starting further back may seek to leverage that strategy to gain track position if the opportunity presents itself.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Hollywood Casino 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
Christopher Bell - $10,300
Chase Elliott - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Ryan Blaney - $9,800
William Byron - $9,700
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,500
Joey Logano - $9,300
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Bubba Wallace - $9,000
Kyle Busch - $8,800
Chris Buescher - $8,500
Chase Briscoe - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Alex Bowman - $8,000
Austin Cindric - $7,500
Noah Gragson - $7,200
Austin Dillon - $6,500
Erik Jones - $6,300
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Hollywood Casino 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Christopher Bell - $10,300
Chase Elliott - $10,000
Chase Briscoe - $8,100
Alex Bowman - $8,000
Michael McDowell - $7,000
Erik Jones - $6,300
There are some good reasons for fantasy players to skip the two favorites this week in favor of Christopher Bell (DK $10,300, FD $12,500). First, no driver has won back-to-back races this season or swept races at one track. Larson would do both if he won this weekend. Second, Hamlin's momentum heading to Kansas is among its worst of the season with three finishes from the last five outside of the top 20. With Bell's record of six top-10s from nine Kansas starts and consecutive poles at the track, he is the safer option for this week's Hollywood Casino 400. Chase Elliott (DK $10,000, FD $11,500) is also a reliable option. The Hendrick Motorsports driver enters this race on the heels of a runner-up finish at Bristol and four finishes of 11th or better from his last four visits to this track. Elliott is performing very consistently at this track, which also makes him a safe option this weekend.
Chase Briscoe (DK $8,100, FD $7,200) turned his unlikely playoff appearance into a spot in the top 12 with consecutive top-10 finishes to close out the first round. Briscoe has been riding a wave of momentum following his win at Darlington and fantasy players should ride it until it stops. Like Darlington, Kansas is a spot Briscoe has had prior NASCAR Xfinity Series success. He won there in that division in 2020 and finished third in 2019. Briscoe's best Cup finish at the track was 13th in 2022 but his current form should help him improve upon that this time. Alex Bowman (DK $8,000, FD $7,800) may be an even bigger playoff bargain. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has an excellent Kansas record with 11 finishes of 11th or better from his last 12 races at the track. He qualified 23rd and finished 10th in this race last season and then started 18th to finish seventh this past May. Regardless of where Bowman starts, he appears capable of a top-10 finish this week.
Michael McDowell's (DK $7,000, FD $6,500) best Kansas start came earlier this season when he finished 10th. That was his first top-10 at the track and came through consistent improvement at the track through his career. Part of that success has come through qualifying. He started inside the top 10 in each of the last two starts there, and if he can do that again, he stands a good shot at landing another top-15 finish for fantasy rosters. Erik Jones (DK $6,300, FD $5,000) tied his best Kansas finish in May. That was his second third-place finish at the track and his fourth top-five. His average finish there is 18.8 with an average starting spot of 16.9. Jones is a lower-priced driver that has the capability of producing a top-10 or even a top-five this week.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,500
Chris Buescher - $8,500
Noah Gragson - $7,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,700
Austin Dillon - $6,500
Kyle Larson (DK $11,500, FD $14,000) is the obvious choice this week at Kansas. He won the last race there and won a week ago at Bristol. He has been one of the championship favorites all season and continues to show that he should be one of those final four contenders. For all of those reasons, he is the highest priced driver this week. For those willing to take a little risk, Larson is worth taking, though. He has one other Kansas win and hasn't finished worse than eighth there in his last six visits. Fantasy players at this point should also be well aware of Martin Truex Jr.'s (DK $9,500, FD $12,000) risks. He was bounced out of the playoffs last week and May's Kansas stop might have been the climax of his year. He hasn't finished better than that fourth-place result in the 17 races since then. Could the return to Kansas and that high-water mark be the tonic he needs to salvage something before leaving the series at the end of the year? Like Larson, Truex is a two-time Kansas winner. He also only has one finish lower than 10th at the track from the last 10 starts. I would like to see a lower price point for him this week given his current streak of six straight finishes of 20th or worse, though.
Chris Buescher (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) would be in the playoffs had he not been beaten to the line last time at this track by a mere 0.001 seconds. That runner-up finish, plus the stage win in May, are why he is worth considering again this week. He has three other top-10 finishes at this track, and has been qualifying consistently inside the top 10 here, too. He won two weeks ago at Watkins Glen and will be full of confidence he can add another victory to his 2024 tally this week after his impressive run back in May. Noah Gragson (DK $7,200, FD $6,800) is another driver that had a good outing that May afternoon. He started third and finished ninth, scoring stage points in both segments. Gragson also won at this track in the Xfinity series in 2022. Both of those points make Gragson one to keep an eye on this week.
Further down the pricelist, fantasy players may want to keep Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DK $6,700, FD $4,500) and Austin Dillon (DK $6,500, FD $5,500) in mind. Stenhouse finished 16th in the spring race and has an average Kansas finish of 19.7 with eight top-15 finishes from 23 tries. A top-20 or better should be his expectation this week. However, Dillon may offer even more. The Richard Childress Racing driver has six top-10s from 22 Kansas starts. He only finished 25th there in May, but was on a run of six straight top-15 finishes at the track from 2020 into 2023. He and the team have improved since the last race at this track, which could boost him back into that top-15 range again this Sunday.
