NASCAR Barometer: Denny Hamlin Lands Third Bristol Victory

Denny Hamlin scored his first playoff win of 2023 with a convincing win in Saturday night's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has shown the speed to win multiple times recently, but his turn into Victory Lane Saturday night was his first since winning at Pocono in July. As usual, Bristol was a treacherous race that caught a number of drivers out. Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick both failed in their attempts to join Hamlin in the next round of championship eliminations, while Bubba Wallace and Martin Truex Jr. each did just enough to see themselves through. Hamlin enters the next playoff round third in the reset championship standings, while William Byron and Truex are tied at the top with both enjoying a 25-point cushion to the drop zone. Anything can happen in the next three races, though.

Following Bristol, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano all exit the playoff battle. The points reset leaves Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, and Bubba Wallace starting behind and looking to climb the order in the next three-race elimination round. Texas Motor Speedway is the first step on that path. Tyler Reddick was the winner there last season, and he will be hoping to repeat that again this coming Sunday to cement himself as the first driver to punch his ticket into the final round of playoff eliminations before Phoenix will decide the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion.

UPGRADE

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin qualified on the front row for Saturday night's race at Bristol, and he was quick from the green flag. The stage points he earned in the second segment were enough to clinch his advancement in the playoffs, but he wasn't done. Hamlin took control of the race in the final stage once he got past teammate Ty Gibbs, and there was really no looking back after that. Hamlin comfortably controlled the race from the front of the field all the way to the finish, leading 142 total laps for his third win of the season and third at Bristol. Saturday night's victory means Hamlin enters the next round of playoffs as the third seeded driver with three finishes of second or better in the five most recent races. There is still a long road ahead to get to Phoenix, but Hamlin appears to be doing all of the right things to get there.

William Byron - Stage points in both opening segments at Bristol put Byron over the top to clinch his spot among the final 12 championship competitors. While Saturday night's race was nothing flashy from the No. 24, it was more than enough to see him safely into the next round of playoffs. He finished the night in ninth position, which was his fourth top-10 finish from the last five races. With the points reset for the next round of elimination races, Byron sits again atop the standings looking to find his way through to the final eight. Up first on that next step toward Phoenix is Texas, where Byron has four top-10 finishes from eight career tries. He finished seventh at the track last season and led 97 total laps across his last two starts there. Byron has a knack for calmly advancing through the playoff eliminations, and it appears he is on that same path in 2023, too.

Bubba Wallace - Wallace is getting used to close calls this season, first narrowly entering the playoffs and then just squeezing through the first round of eliminations. His 14th-place finish Saturday night was just enough to see him through to the next round, and it was his effort that made the difference. Capturing as many points as possible was his goal, and finishing third in the opening stage was the difference maker as he held on to a top-15 finish in the final laps, earning enough points from the night to put him over the edge and into the round of 12. Making the playoffs without a victory was an accomplishment for this team and advancing from the first round is another success propelling the organization ahead. The coming weeks will be an even bigger challenge, though. Wallace has just one top-10 finish from eight Texas starts. His average finish there is 23.6. 

Martin Truex Jr. - Despite a nice point position entering the playoffs, Truex cut advancing into the second round of eliminations awfully close. The first two races of the round started with finishes of 18th and 36th, which left the No. 19 on the cusp of elimination Saturday night at Bristol. He struggled again, barely snagging some valuable stage points in the first segment. When all was said and done, Truex ended the night two laps down in 19th position. That was just enough for him to avoid elimination. Truex now gets the benefit of a points reset for the next round of elimination races, but the margin for error gets even narrower. First up is Texas, where Truex has 17 top-10 finishes from 33 career starts. His brush with elimination was a scare that should give the team extra incentive to capitalize on their points cushion in the coming rounds.

DOWNGRADE

Joey Logano - Getting caught in other people's mistakes is a hazard of racing at Bristol, and that is exactly what caught out Logano. The defending champion was in the playoff elimination zone when an accident ahead sent Corey Lajoie's car careening into the rear wheel of Logano's machine. The heavy damage to the rear wheel was not repairable and put Logano out of the race and eliminated him from the playoffs. Despite his 12th-place finish at Darlington and a fifth-place result at Kansas, his point total was just a four too few for Logano's championship defense to continue, and he will race for wins in the remaining races of the season. Afterward, Logano summed up his playoff performance as inconsistent with too few stage points. With no stage points from three of the last five races, that is an accurate description.

Kevin Harvick - Harvick's final appearance at Bristol as a full-time Cup Series driver ended with his elimination from the playoffs. The former champion struggled with his car from the start and was not able to find the adjustments that would enable him to earn the spots necessary to advance from the first round of playoff races. Harvick failed to score stage points and finished five laps off the pace in 29th position. Saturday's finish was his worst of the three-race playoff round and far too short of the kind he needed to advance. Harvick said the team has been hit or miss the entire season, and that lack of consistency was what ended his final chance at adding another championship to his career statistics. There are still more chances for him to end his final season with a win, though. At Texas he is a three-time victor who led 19 laps last year.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - While winning the Daytona 500 makes 2023 a special season for Stenhouse, he will still be disappointed to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. It was a good night for him with a 10th-place finish, though. That was his eighth top-10 finish of the season, but it still wasn't enough to earn him a spot with the remaining championship contenders. Truth be told, Saturday's result was just Stenhouse's first top-10 finish since Pocono in July. More consistent top finishes are a requirement to climb further up the standings and that is something the team continues to lack. Race wins and further steps toward that consistency will be the aim for the remaining races this season, though. The work starts this coming week at Texas, too. Stenhouse has never finished in the top-10 at that track. His best finish there was 11th in 2018, but he did lead 23 laps there last season.

Michael McDowell - Like Stenhouse, a respectable race Saturday night at Bristol was just too little too late for McDowell to stay alive in the championship battle. McDowell's sixth-place Bristol finish was his first top-10 since winning at Indianapolis and his seventh of the season. However, finishes of 32nd and 26th in the first two races of the playoffs dug too deep of a hole for him to overcome. The season can still be considered a success, though. He scored a race win, made the playoffs, and proved that the team can be more competitive at more tracks than it has in the past. That is progress, and it gives the team a foundation to build from. Until then, McDowell still has a few opportunities where he could challenge for top finishes. With a road course and Talladega still to come, fantasy players could still use McDowell despite him not being a playoff contender.

Ross Chastain - Despite advancing through the first round of playoff eliminations, Chastain will face a bigger challenge to make it through the next. Stage points in the first segment Saturday night at Bristol, coupled with a 23rd-place finish, was enough to put Chastain through to the next round where the competition will only get more fierce. However, the No. 1 has only had one top-10 finish in the last six races and just two following his win at Nashville nearly three months ago. Chastain advanced to the final last season through race wins and being a consistent contender in the top five most weeks, but that is not the case now in 2023. The team can still improve, but that needs to start now to have another chance to race for a championship. Texas hasn't been an inspiring place for Chastain either. He has never finished in the top 10 there, and last year's finish of 13th was his best at the track.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Carson Hocevar - Bristol was just Hocevar's fourth career Cup Series start. He outperformed the usual expectations of the No. 42 machine, though. He started the race 16th and found his way to fifth for the end of the second stage. He lost a little ground in the final stage, but still picked up an 11th-place finish, which was the best of his short Cup career so far. It is often said that taking what the car will give you is the best thing a young driver can do, and that is exactly what Hocevar delivered Saturday night. As he races for a championship in the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series this season, he is gathering valuable experience for the next steps of his career with these Cup starts. Hocevar said he knows what his racing plans are for next season (likely Trucks), but it seems only a matter of time before he finds a full-time seat in the Cup Series.