This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Ally 400
Location: Lebanon, Tenn.
Course: Nashville Superspeedway
Format: 1.33-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 300
NASCAR Ally 400 Race Preview
After a well-deserved off week, NASCAR returns to action at Nashville Superspeedway in the Ally 400. The series has a new points leader in Martin Truex Jr., too. His win two weeks ago at Sonoma was his second of the season, and the points that came along with it pushed him ahead of William Byron in the standings. Since Truex already won this season, six playoff spots still remain for drivers to get in on points alone. The battle for those final positions is heating up, too. Alex Bowman worked his way into the 16th and final playoff spot after returning from his hiatus due to injury. He leads Daniel Suarez in 13th position by a mere three points. The battle for that final spot gets even tighter considering rookie Ty Gibbs is just a further eight points behind Suarez. Still, 10 regular-season races remain for that picture to change. Pressure to make the playoffs for those drivers without wins will increase as the regular season runs to its close. The field's next chance to ease that pressure comes this week at Nashville on NASCAR's longest concrete track.
Key Stats at Nashville Superspeedway
- Number of races: 2
- Winners from pole: 0
- Winners from top-5 starters: 2
- Winners from top-10 starters: 2
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 113.792 mph
Previous Nashville Winners
2022 - Chase Elliott
2021 - Kyle Larson
Nashville's D-shaped oval provided multiple lanes of racing for NASCAR's new generation of car last season. The side by side racing didn't keep a Hendrick Motorsports car out of Victory Lane, though. While Kyle Larson dominated the race in 2021, it was Chase Elliott who won in 2022. Tire wear and mechanical grip will be a primary focus for setups this week. While we haven't seen the tire issues experienced last season, grip will still be a difference maker at Nashville. Four-tire stops will be the primary option when cars come to pit road, but caution periods can upset the running order and offer chances for cars mired in traffic to go off strategy and gamble on track position. The two prior races run at this track have produced 21 total cautions, which means teams should have ample chances to gamble this week. Therefore, fantasy players should expect some drivers to get better as the race distance wears on. Multiple grooves and a car that can be quickly adjusted to improve lap times make this race a more challenging one to predict for fantasy players, but Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are likely to be the top choices.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Ally 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,600
Kyle Busch - $11,200
Denny Hamlin - $10,700
William Byron - $10,100
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Ryan Blaney - $9,900
Ross Chastain - $9,600
Christopher Bell - $9,400
Tyler Reddick - $9,100
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Kevin Harvick - $8,800
Joey Logano - $8,600
Bubba Wallace - $8,400
Alex Bowman - $8,200
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ty Gibbs - $7,800
Ryan Preece - $7,100
Austin Dillon - $6,000
Michael McDowell - $5,800
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Ally 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $10,700
Christopher Bell - $9,400
Tyler Reddick - $9,100
Ty Gibbs - $7,800
Ryan Preece - $7,100
Michael McDowell - $5,800
The lower-risk lineup for the Ally 400 leans toward the JGR camp. Denny Hamlin (DK $10,700, FD $12,500) was a notable contender in last year's Nashville visit. He led 114 laps and finished second to teammate Martin Truex Jr. in both stages before slipping to sixth at the finish. He started on pole after rain interrupted qualifying, and was a contender throughout the race. Fantasy player should expect him to be a factor again this weekend. Gibbs teammate Christopher Bell (DK $9,400, FD $11,500) didn't lead last year's race, but he scored a top-10 finish and was fourth in the first stage. With finishes of 11th and ninth in the last two races Bell is gaining some momentum. He has an average finish of 8.5 from the two Nashville races and should be a top-10 choice again this week.
A driver looking for a turnaround is Tyler Reddick (DK $9,100, FD $9,500). Unlike Bell, Reddick endured a two-race slump ahead of last week's break. He finished 18th in both prior Nashville races, and while another 18th-place finish this week wouldn't be ideal it would still be an improvement over the last two. Realistically, Reddick should be a contender for a top-10 finish, but at worst should comfortably be among the top 15. Another driver hoping last week's break will end a slump is Ty Gibbs (DK $7,800, FD $7,500). While his run of finishes are more bad luck than a slump, Gibbs will be aiming to right the ship this week at Nashville. He has four top-10 finishes so far this season and is in touch with the playoff positions. This will be his first series race at this track, but he finished fourth in his lone Xfinity Series start there last season. In contrast, Ryan Preece (DK $7,100, FD $5,200) has a nice Nashville resume that contains the last two NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series wins at the oval. He knows his way around this track despite a brake issue forcing a retirement from his only previous Cup Series start there. The final consideration for this lower-risk lineup is Michael McDowell (DK $5,800, FD $4,500). He is keeping in touch with the race for the playoff positions and brings the momentum of consecutive top-10 finishes into this week's race.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Chase Elliott - $10,400
Kevin Harvick - $8,800
Bubba Wallace - $8,400
Alex Bowman - $8,200
Brad Keselowski - $8,000
Austin Dillon - $6,000
Fantasy players seeking more of a Hendrick flavor may want to consider the higher-risk lineup this week. After missing multiple races due to injury and then receiving a one-race suspension for intentional contact, Chase Elliott (DK $10,400, FD $11,000) sits 27th in points and is anxious to win. He won this race last year and also led 13 laps in 2021 before being disqualified for having too many loose lug nuts at the end of the race. While all of those circumstances aren't the usual for him, his upside this week is that he has nothing to lose by aiming solely for the win. Kevin Harvick (DK $8,800, FD $8,500) is also winless but has been staking a claim at the front of the field. He sits 12th in points and finished 11th or better in the last three races. He should be there again this week given his two prior Nashville top-10s, but he has also never led a lap at the track. Fantasy players that are comfortable with a little recent inconsistency should consider Bubba Wallace (DK $8,400, FD $8,200). He was on a hot run of finishes with three of his top-fives coming from the last five. He lost that trend two races ago with finishes of 17th and 30th, though. Wallace needs consistency to stay in the playoff hunt, which could return at Nashville where he has an average finish of 16.0 with a best finish of 12th.
After missing time to injury, Alex Bowman (DK $8,200, FD $8,000) has worked his way back into the playoff positions. However, he hasn't scored a top-10 since April. Nashville hasn't been the best venue for him with a DNF last year and a 14th-place finish in 2021. He is in Hendrick equipment, which gives him an edge this week, though. Brad Keselowski (DK $8,000, FD $7,800) is another driver looking to make his way back into the top 10. His last top-five was at Darlington, but he hasn't finished in the top-15 in the last three races. Concrete surfaces tend to play to Keselowski's strength's though. He finished eighth at Dover in April and could be in store for more again this week. Finally, Austin Dillon (DK $6,000, FD $6,000) is another driver seeking consistency. Despite four top-10 finishes on the season, his last top-10 was at Charlotte and four of his last five (including the All-Star Race) were outside of the top 15. However, his average Nashville result is 13.0.
