This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1
Location: Homestead, Fla.
Course: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile oval
Laps: 267
NASCAR Xfinity 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1 Race Preview
Kyle Larson locked himself into the championship finale with a dominant race last week at Las Vegas. Two races now remain for the other seven playoff contenders to step up and claim their spot alongside him. First of those chances is this week's 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Larson won the race last season, sweeping both stages on his way to victory. Back to back wins for him would leave the championship fight wide open in the season's final elimination race at Richmond. Miami's unique track has produced some very close racing since its reconfiguration with progressive banking and a surface that can be tough on tires. Homestead used to be the season finale before it moved to Phoenix, and the track has hosted 18 playoff races. Twelve different drivers have those 18 playoff races, with non-playoff drivers have only won this playoff race on four occasions. This fast 1.5-mile oval gets even more exciting with a spot in the championship finale on the line.
Key Stats at Homestead-Miami Speedway
- Number of races: 24
- Winners from pole: 3
- Winners from top-5 starters: 15
- Winners from top-10 starters: 17
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 3
- Fastest race: 142.654 mph
Previous 10 Homestead Winners
2022 - Kyle Larson
2021 - William Byron
2020 - Denny Hamlin
2019 - Kyle Busch
2018 - Joey Logano
2017 - Martin Truex Jr.
2016 - Jimmie Johnson
2015 - Kyle Busch
2014 - Kevin Harvick
2013 - Denny Hamlin
Homestead has been reconfigured multiple times throughout its history, but the current configuration has produced the best racing. The track's progressive banking in the turns gives drivers plenty of room to move around the track to make passes and find the fastest line. The circuit's worn pavement also makes tire wear a big factor. Drivers must manage their tires throughout fuel runs to maximize grip at the end of the race and stages. Unexpected caution periods often give teams a chance to trade track position for fresh tires, though. The variety of strategy options available at this track tends to produce exciting battles for the race win. However, being a 1.5-mile oval, most winners at the circuit have come from the top starting positions, even though both Denny Hamlin and William Byron have started outside of the top 30 and won here.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
Tyler Reddick - $10,700
William Byron - $10,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Kyle Busch - $9,700
Ryan Blaney - $9,400
Chase Elliott - $9,200
Ross Chastain - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Chris Buescher - $8,800
Joey Logano - $8,500
Brad Keselowski - $8,300
Kevin Harvick - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Bubba Wallace - $7,900
Ty Gibbs - $7,800
Daniel Suarez - $7,500
John Hunter Nemechek - $6,800
NASCAR DFS Picks for the 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
Christopher Bell - $10,200
Brad Keselowski - $8,300
Daniel Suarez - $7,500
John Hunter Nemechek - $6,800
Ryan Preece - $6,100
After being knocked out of the championship hunt at the line at Martinsville last season, Denny Hamlin (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) knows first hand the importance of getting the job done at Homestead. He is a three-time winner at this track and has put together a championship-like season thus far. Hamlin led seven laps and finished seventh in this race last season, and he'll be aiming to win every stage and the race this time. Hamlin's teammate, Christopher Bell (DK $10,200, FD $11,000) appears likely to be a contender this week as well. He drove to an impressive runner-up finish at Las Vegas, which was his third top-five from the last five races. He has three prior Homestead starts with a best finish of eighth. He led four laps and finished 11th in this race last season, but given last week's charge, Bell should be in store for a top-five finish this week. Brad Keselowski (DK $8,300, FD $9,000) also impressed at Las Vegas. His RFK Racing car tends to be at its best on circuits with rough pavement, too. The combination of momentum and this particular track could be a boost Keselowski's effort to score his first points win with his new team. He finished fifth at Homestead last season, which is an indication that he should be at the front again this week.
A 15th-place finish last week is evidence that Daniel Suarez (DK $7,500, FD $6,800) might be less of a risk this week. He has had a relatively inconsistent season, but last week's top-15 and a 10th-place finish at Homestead last season suggest he is poised to be back inside the top 15 again this week. That potential outperforms his season's average finish to date of 18.9. John Hunter Nemechek (DK $6,800, FD $6,000) will join Legacy Motor Club in the No. 42 this week. It will be his first series start since Homestead last season, and he'll take over the wheel of the car that Carson Hocevar drove in the last five races with a best finish of 11th at Bristol. Nemechek is a contender for the Xfinity Series championship and will have the advantage of extra track time this week while racing in both divisions. Ryan Preece (DK $6,100, FD $4,800) scored a 21st-place finish in his last Cup Series race at Homestead. His average finish this season is 21.3 with one top-five and two top-10s. However, he started eighth last time out at Homestead, which suggests he has the speed to outperform his average finish at this track this week if he can piece together the full race.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
William Byron - $10,500
Chase Elliott - $9,200
Ross Chastain - $9,000
Bubba Wallace - $7,900
Ty Gibbs - $7,800
Harrison Burton - $5,500
William Byron (DK $10,500, FD $12,500) has his sights set on his first appearance in the final four. He is positioned well, sitting atop the standings, but the margin is slim. He had a relative off week at Las Vegas, but he still managed to finish seventh for his fifth straight top-10. Byron won at Homestead in 2021 when it wasn't part of the playoffs, and he'll be trying to win again to get a ticket to Phoenix. Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott (DK $9,200, FD $9,500) is still winless in 2023, but he has been within reach for much of the year. Las Vegas was a down week for him, and Homestead should be an opportunity for a quick return to form. His best Homestead finish was second in 2020 and he finished 14th in this race last season. In contrast to Elliott, Las Vegas was a good outing for Ross Chastain (DK $9,000, FD $10,000). His fifth-place finish was his ninth top-five of the season and his third top-10 from the last five races. He started 20th at Homestead last season, but he and the team found the adjustments they needed to push him forward to second for the finish. That was his best finish at this track and another top-10 should be within his reach again this week.
Homestead is also a type of circuit that has suited Bubba Wallace (DK $7,900, FD $8,000) this season. Wallace has four top-20 finishes from the last five races. His best Homestead result was 13th in 2020 and he led two laps in 2021 before finishing that race 22nd. Rookie Ty Gibbs (DK $7,800, FD $7,200) is working for a quick bounce back from trouble last week at Las Vegas. His single-lap pace at Homestead put him sixth on the grid last season but he finished the race 22nd. He will be missing two suspended crew members this week following his loose wheel at Las Vegas, though. Rounding out the higher-risk Homestead option is Harrison Burton (DK $5,500, FD $3,800). It was announced that he will return to Wood Brothers Racing in 2024. The team feels Homestead suits Burton's driving style, and they found some speed toward the end of last week's race. That speed should be tranferrable to another 1.5-mile oval this weekend, which means Burton should be in a position to take a step forward in performance this weekend.
