This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Pennzoil 400
It is Vegas week for NASCAR and the Cup Series will round out the show on Sunday. I am hoping for some better weather than we had last weekend in Fontana in hopes of seeing practice and qualifying.
Kyle Busch was able to nab his first win in only second official start with Richard Childress Racing. If last week tells you anything, we are seeing a very motivated Kyle Busch with something to prove in 2023. That could be scary for the competition if this team keeps putting the car underneath that they have so far.
Previous 10 Las Vegas Winners with Starting Position
2022 fall - Joey Logano (5th)
2022 spring - Alex Bowman (13th)
2021 fall - Denny Hamlin (6th)
2021 spring - Kyle Larson (3rd)
2020 fall - Kurt Busch (9th)
2020 spring - Joey Logano (5th)
2019 fall - Martin Truex Jr. (24th)
2019 spring - Joey Logano (10th)
2018 fall - Brad Keselowski (13th)
2018 spring - Kevin Harvick (2nd)
This is year number two of the Next Gen car and if last year taught us anything, it was that we will likely see laps led a bit more spread out than we used to. Las Vegas is a clear example of this as last year in the fall we had Ross Chastain lead the most laps with 68 and then five drivers led between 29 and 39 laps themselves. In the spring, Chastain also led the most laps at 83 then Kyle Busch with 49 and three other drivers between 27 and 32 laps each. Before that we were consistently seeing someone get close to or over 100 laps led when we came here.
What does this mean for DFS? Whereas before this was a two dominator race, I think you can make the case for a few different strategies. One you can go three dominators and hope you see them all get at least 40 laps led, or you can play one dominator and focus more on place differential and hope that laps led are even more spread out. I lean toward the two to three dominator approach because we really want to nail those drivers who get over 30 or 40 laps led in tournaments. Ideally, you could get a third driver who we may not classify as a dominator from the mid tier that leads 20+ laps and adds to their upside in that way. If you haven't checked out my strategy article, be sure to do so!
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Pennzoil 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values (in order of price)
Kyle Busch - $10,900
Kyle Larson - $10,700
Joey Logano - $10,500
Ross Chastain - $10,300
DraftKings Tier 2 Values (in order of price)
Denny Hamlin - $9,900
Ryan Blaney - $9,700
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,500
William Byron - $9,100
DraftKings Tier 3 Values (in order of price)
Kevin Harvick - $8,600
Alex Bowman - $8,500
Austin Dillon - $8,100
DraftKings Tier 4 Values (in order of price)
Daniel Suarez - $7,600
Chase Briscoe - $7,400
Ty Gibbs - $6,600
AJ Allmendinger - $6,100
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Pennzoil 400
Kyle Busch - $10,900
Ross Chastain - $10,300
Austin Dillon - $8,100
Daniel Suarez - $7,600
Ty Gibbs - $6,600
AJ Allmendinger - $6,100
I mentioned it at the top, I think Kyle Busch is ready to ride this momentum into a very good run and why not continue it at his home track. It was easy for me to jam two dominators in at the very top in him and Ross Chastain who was stellar here last year leading 83 and 68 laps. The other guy I will be mixing in quite a bit at the top is Kyle Larson who won here in the spring of 2021 and was second last spring. Last week Larson's frustrating 2022 carried over into 2023 when he had electrical problems very early in the race. This was a problem with not having practice or it likely would have been caught then. I talked about possibly getting that third dominator in your lineup from the mid range and I think he could be either of Austin Dillon or Daniel Suarez, who I won't classify as dominators, but could very well lead 20-30 laps here. This lineup specifically worked out in that I paired Suarez and Dillon with their other teammates Busch and Chastain. I think Trackhouse and RCR will have strong weekends which is how I fell on this, not from purposefully stacking teams.
I think we are going to be close to a Ty Gibbs breakout moment. We have to remember that he is in the same car that Kyle Busch was in last year, so this is not $6,600 equipment. He also has an Xfinity win at this track. AJ Allmendinger ran well here in the fall last year, registering a top ten finish in this same car. In that race, he had an average run position of sixteenth and for this price I will take that. Let's hope we get him starting outside the top twenty.
