NASCAR Barometer: William Byron Captures Fifth Win of 2023

William Byron segregated himself even further atop the NASCAR Cup Series wins tally with his fifth victory of the season at Watkins Glen International. With one race remaining before the championship playoffs, he still falls behind Martin Truex Jr. in the regular season championship standings, though. The victory was the fifth consecutive one for Hendrick Motorsports at the Glen, and it was also Byron's first road course win. He dominated the afternoon, which featured just one caution period, just like the week prior at Indianapolis. Byron led 66 of the 90 laps in a statement win from the championship contender as the playoff field nears finalization. Both Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick secured their playoff positions on points, leaving just one final playoff spot up for grabs this week at Daytona International Speedway. 

The table is set for the climax of the 2023 regular season in the coming week's Coke Zero Sugar 400. With everything to play for, the night could be full of fireworks, too. Bubba Wallace enters the weekend holding the final playoff spot by virtue of his points total, but a victory from a non-winner on the season would end his hopes. Anything can happen at a track like Daytona, and that scenario could produce fireworks Saturday night. There is still everything on the line for the majority of the field, and every one of them will be fighting tooth and nail to put their fingerprint on the 2023 championship battle.

UPGRADE

William Byron - Byron didn't get to demonstrate his road course speed at Indianapolis after a pre-race inspection penalty forced him to the back of the pack before the start. However, he put his pace on full display Sunday at Watkins Glen. He harried the leaders through the first stage, only to take the lead by staying out an extra lap after the stage finish to leap frog to the lead. From there he dominated the caution-free second segment to grab a playoff point. That trend continued throughout the final segment and the only caution period of the race, too. The No. 24 was just too tough and drove off into the sunset to grab his fifth win of the season. Byron has one Daytona victory from 2020, but he has crashed out of seven of his 11 track starts, including the last four running.

Michael McDowell -  McDowell picked up at Watkins Glen where he left off a week prior at Indianapolis. The now two-time winner passed Denny Hamlin in the early laps and then went on to lead the rest of the first stage to collect a valuable playoff point. Unfortunately, his lack of mistakes caught up with him on his first pit stop following the stage when he picked up a penalty for driving through too many boxes. Things only got worse in the final stage when the team went over the wall too soon, which gave him another penalty to stunt his progress. An electrical issue later in the afternoon took him out of the race completely, but the team's pace should give them confidence that they can fight to advance beyond the first round of championship eliminations. Daytona is the only other track that McDowell has won at, and he tends to be an option with upside potential at there.

Brad Keselowski - He didn't do it with a victory, but Keselowski guaranteed his spot in the playoffs alongside teammate Chris Buescher with his performance at Watkins Glen. Keselowski spared himself the stress of having to race his way into the championship fight at Daytona by virtue of a 15th-place run at the New York road course. It wasn't the way Keselowski was hoping to earn his spot, but he accomplished the mission nonetheless. The coming week should be more to his liking, though. While Keselowski hasn't had the same success at Daytona as he has at Talladega, Keselowski remains one of the best superspeedway racers on the grid. The former champion has one Daytona win under his belt from the summer of 2016. He led 109 laps in the last three races at the track, but he also failed to finish 10 of his last 13 starts. 

Kevin Harvick - Harvick also stamped his ticket to the playoffs Sunday at Watkins Glen. The former champion had a relatively anonymous 21st-place outing on Sunday, but it was enough to clinch his playoff spot. The good news for Harvick is that there is just one more road course left on the schedule. The last two weeks on that type of track were his first two consecutive finishes outside of the top 20 since the three-race span of Nashville, Chicago, and Atlanta. Harvick has been a fixture among the top 10 on most ovals this season, but the current stretch of the schedule hasn't played to those strengths. Daytona will be a step in the right direction, but fantasy players will still want to approach with some caution. Harvick is a two-time winner at the track, but he only finished in the top 10 there once in the last five tries. The playoffs are mission accomplished, though.

Ty Gibbs - Gibbs showed off his road course prowess Sunday. The rookie driver has multiple road course wins in the Xfinity Series, and is showing that potential in the Cup Series, too. He dominated Saturday's Xfinity race, but was bumped from contention on the final restart. Sunday was a different story, though. Gibbs made no mistakes and kept his car inside the top five the entire afternoon, collecting stage points in each segment and ensuring that he would go to Daytona with a playoff spot still within reach. He has to overcome Bubba Wallace for the only remaining playoff spot at stake this coming week, but Gibbs has shown that he has the potential to get the job done. He will enter the final regular-season race as the underdog to make the playoff field, but anything can happen at Daytona. Gibbs has a best series finish of 13th at the track.

DOWNGRADE

Chase Elliott - Former champion Elliott entered Watkins Glen knowing he basically needs to win to get into the playoffs. For much of the race he looked competitive and could have a chance if luck was on his side. However, the weekend came unraveled quickly when he slowed on the back part of the course after running out of fuel. It was the first caution of the day and Elliott was out of contention. He now faces a must-win scenario this coming week at Daytona, a track Elliott has never won at. He has earned three poles at the track and led 157 laps through 15 series starts, but his best finish is second place, which he did twice. He also crashed out of the last two races there. Elliott's back is against the wall, and he needs something big to happen this coming week to keep his season alive. That situation could make him a win or bust scenario for fantasy players this coming week.

Daniel Suarez - After a good outing at Indianapolis, Suarez was in position to use another road course race to his advantage in the playoff battle. Circumstances didn't play to his favor, though. Suarez qualified just inside the top 15 and then had a misstep and spin early in the race. While running in traffic, Suarez used too much curb in the chicane and lost control, spinning into the entry of the carousel and letting the field pass him by. Luckily, Suarez kept the car mostly off of the wall and avoided serious damage to his car, but the track position he lost was a huge penalty. He never fully recovered and was forced to accept a 22nd-place finish and no stage points. He now has it all to do at Daytona to join the playoff field. The 43-point gap he has to the final playoff position will be tough to overcome, and he needs to be thinking victory this week to have a chance at racing for the championship.

Kyle Larson - Larson had top-five speed Sunday at Watkins Glen. He spent most of the afternoon racing toward the front of the field, and added points from a fourth-place finish in the second stage. Things got messy for him at the end of the race, though. Close racing with Austin Dillon and contact between the pair raised the aggression, and the pair collided again on the final turn, spinning both cars out of what should have been much better finishes. Larson, for his part, came home 26th, which was a far cry from what should have been possible given he is a two-time Watkins Glen winner. Larson hasn't had the consistency we'd like to see as the playoffs approach. He has just two top-10 finishes from the last five races and only three from the last seven. He will need more consistency, or wins, to advance to the final four. There is still a long way to go, but more momentum now would be better.

Ross Chastain - The speed Chastain and Trackhouse Racing once had still seems lost with just one more race before the playoffs begin. Chastain's victory at Nashville has him safely in the championship battle, but the lack of finishes since are a big concern for him. Since that win eight races ago, Chastain has added just one additional top-10 finish to his 2023 record. More worrisome is that he only has two top-15 finishes since that win. More of those results are not going to be enough to get him far in the elmination rounds of the playoffs, and the team needs to find speed and victories quickly. They have one more race to assess their trouble and make progress. Chastain did finish ninth at Daytona in February, though. He led six laps in that race, but the field has caught him as the season progressed. Chastain and team need to find something this week that they can build from during the playoffs.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Bubba Wallace - Wallace did himself a world of good with a points-focused race Sunday at Watkins Glen. The 23XI driver is not known for his road racing abilities, and he faced the prospect of losing his spot among the playoff positions through this stretch of races. However, he turned the tables by finishing in the top 10 to collect stage points in both segments, and he went on to finish 12th in the race. It was an important points day that gives him a 32-point margin to protect in the final race of the regular season. Even better news is that Daytona is a place Wallace should be expected to finish well at. He scored four top-fives finishes from 12 Daytona starts and has led a lap in the last five races there. Wallace minimized the damage other playoff contenders hoped to inflict, and that puts him in decent standing to secure the final playoff spot up for grabs in the last race before the championship fight kicks off.