NASCAR Barometer: Last to First for Ross Chastain at Charlotte

Ross Chastain turned adversity into victory in Sunday night's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. A tire failure the day before meant Chastain had to move to a backup car for the race, and he started last among the 40 cars. That miscue set up what could have been a long night, but Chastain and team had pace early and climbed through the field as the night wore on. While William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Carson Hocevar took the attention through much of the race, Chastain picked his was forward to climb into striking position of the lead in the final miles. From there, Chastain just worked to find an opportunity to take advantage of, which he did, taking the lead for the first time with just under 50 laps to go. As the race's final pit cycle worked through the field, Chastain remained within striking distance of dominant Byron, ultimately making the pass for the win with just six laps remaining. From there, Chastain weathered the few charges Byron could make to claim the No. 1 team's first victory of 2025. 

This week the series sticks with intermediate ovals with a trip to Nashville Superspeedway. It will be the fifth time the series races at the 1.3-mile concrete oval. Chastain won at the track in 2023, but Joey Logano took home the honors last season. Chastain's victory on Sunday leaves eight playoff positions available to be won on points alone, but those spots are sure to continue shrinking as new 2025 winners come forward through the next run of races. William Byron leads the standings on the back of his stage sweep at Charlotte, and Ryan Preece holds down the 16th and final spot with a 13-point advantage over the rising AJ Allmendinger.

UPGRADE

Ross Chastain - A tire failure Saturday left Chastain's Trackhouse Racing crew with a damaged car ahead of Sunday's race. The damage, and move to a backup, also forced Chastain to the rear of the field to start. However, the long race distance left plenty of time for Chastain to claw his way forward, and that is exactly what he did. By the end of the second stage, Chastain was inside the top 10. He kept climbing and was in the top five by the end of the third stage. In the final stage, Chastain's car came to life and set up a duel between him and William Byron for the victory. As the pair battled it was clear that Chastain had the faster car. Once he got by, there was no looking back as Chastain managed the charging Byron behind for six laps en route to the checkered flag for his first victory of 2025 and a spot in the championship playoffs. It was a championship performance from the team, which could continue into Nashville. Chastain won there in 2023 and has three top-10 finishes from four tries.

William Byron - Byron dominated Sunday's 600-mile race but didn't have the closing speed to hold off Chastain's late-race charge for the win. Instead, Byron will have to be content with three stage victories, 283 laps led, and a runner-up finish. While the end result seems like a disappointment, it was still a commanding performance for the No. 24 team. The top-five finish was Byron's sixth of the season and his points haul from the night pushes him back atop the points standings, just one point shy of 500 on the season. Byron and his Hendrick Motorsports crew executed flawlessly throughout Sunday night's long race, and long-run pace was their greatest strength. That was enough to keep Byron out front for the majority of the race, but Chastain built a small speed advantage in the late miles that Byron just couldn't overcome. However, the effort and points lead still makes the No. 24 squad look like championship contenders.

AJ Allmendinger - Sunday night was a hint that Allmendinger may yet have a say in how this season's playoff field takes shape. The road-course ace had an impressive qualifying effort that led to stage points in all three segments and a fourth-place finish at the end of 600 miles. Allmendinger and team did not put a foot wrong all night and were rewarded with their first top-five of the season. Even better is that Allmendinger leaves Charlotte 17th in the standings just 13 points behind Ryan Preece. Sunday's success is coming at the right time, too. With multiple road course races on the horizon, top results on ovals could boost Allmendinger and team even more as they approach those tracks where he is a perennial race-winning contender. Even at Nashville, Allmendinger can find success, too. He finished 10th and 11th in the last two series races there, and he won there in Xfinity Series equipment in 2023.

Ryan Preece - Preece's push for a spot in the 2025 championship playoffs continued at Charlotte. It didn't seem like anything special was in the cards when he qualified 28th, but the long race distance enabled him and the team to work their way forward to claim a ninth-place finish, their fifth of the season. Sunday's night finish was also Preece's first top-10 in Cup Series competition at Charlotte. In all, it has been a remarkable start to the season for Preece with his RFK Racing team. He and the team have been delivering consistent speed, and when the opportunity is there for a top finish, Preece has been grabbing it. That has been the pattern this season, and fantasy players should expect it to continue at Nashville. Preece finished fourth at the track last season despite an average finish of just 24th in his two prior tries. Preece is a new driver this season, which has been good for fantasy players who are taking notice.

Chase Briscoe - Pole position at Charlotte was Briscoe's second of the season. While he only led a single lap, Briscoe kept his nose clean throughout the long race and landed a third-place finish, which was his fifth of the season. That tally ties him with just Ryan Blaney for the most among non winners so far this season. Despite some missteps early, last weekend's package suggests Briscoe is finding footing with Joe Gibbs Racing, which could signal continued improvement through the summer months. As it is, Briscoe holds 13th in the playoff standings and, including the All-Star Race, he heads to Nashville on a streak of three consecutive top-10 finishes. That is his best run of form so far this season. While that is all great news for the No. 19 team, Nashville has not been one of Briscoe's best tracks. His best finish there was 21st last season. HIs continued improvement behind the wheel of the No. 19 should help push him to a career-best finish at the track this week, though.

DOWNGRADE

Denny Hamlin - For much of Sunday night's race, Hamlin looked to be the driver closest to challenging Byron for the victory. The pair fought a battle over several miles, and Hamlin led 53 laps, too. However, a fueling issue on Hamlin's final pit stop left him without a full tank of gas, forcing Hamlin to slow down to conserve as much fuel as possible. As Hamlin fell backward and no cautions arrived, the No. 11 was eventually forced to come to pit road in order to make it to the finish. Despite the car's speed, the fuel issues and unplanned stop meant Hamlin left the track with just a 16th-place finish. While stage points in all three segments help to blunt the impact of his late backward slide, Hamlin and team were capable of significantly more. The team must now regroup and focus on the coming week's trip to Nashville, where Hamlin started on pole two of four times the series has raced there.

Carson Hocevar - Also battling for the lead Sunday night was Hocevar. The Spire Motorsports No. 77 machine started with Chastain at the back, but found its way forward in the second half of Sunday night's race, scoring stage points in two of the three stages. The car's pace and Hocevar's track position were beginning to look like he was going to be one of the contenders for the race win. Those hopes went up in smoke at the start of the final stage, though. After the stage break, Hocevar lined up on the front row only for his engine to give way as racing resumed. While trying to keep the car out of oncoming traffic, contact with Chris Buescher added to the misery. Sunday's night was another flash of what fantasy owners might come to expect from Hocevar later this season, though. He has shown race-leading pace several times this season and as he visits tracks for the second time this season, that speed should lead to top finishes.

Kyle Larson - Spins in both the Indy 500 and Coca-Cola 600 made for a disappointing day for Larson. First, a spin and crash at Indianapolis took Larson out of the race prematurely, giving him an early start to Charlotte for his second race of the day. Despite his front-row starting spot, Larson seemed to struggle early, and he lost control and spun in the first stage. The loss of track position due to that led to further problems just after the halfway mark when Larson was caught up in a mid-pack crash that broke Larson's rear suspension, taking him out of the race with more than 150 laps still remaining. It definitely wasn't the day Larson hoped for, but the No. 5 continues to have some of the fastest raw speed in the field. Larson and the team just need to reduce the mistakes and failures to maximize it, though. Larson will be a favorite again this week at Nashville regardless. He won there in 2021 and has never finished lower than eighth.

Tyler Reddick - Sunday night was shaping up to be a productive day for Reddick, but a late incident meant he couldn't fully capitalize on the effort. Reddick started the race in 12th position and held station throughout most of the night to score stage points in all three of the race segments. While the No. 45 didn't have the speed to carry Reddick to the front and into a fight for the lead, he was doing enough to make it a productive points day. A late loss of control ended with Reddick nosing the car into the outside wall, causing heavy damage, though. That mistake was compounded by the fact that it didn't generate a caution, too. Instead, Reddick pitted for repairs and return to action with a hurt racecar and having lost two laps to the leaders. In the end, Reddick finished just 26th for a night that should have been a top-10 finish. Reddick is still looking for his first win of 2025, but will have to try again next week at Nashville where he finished third last season.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Brad Keselowski - After months of terrible luck, things finally came together for Keselowski at Charlotte. The former series champion has had a rough time this season with just two top-15 finishes. He entered Sunday's race outside of the top 30 in points and having suffered another disappointment the week prior in the All-Star Race from which he started on pole. Having qualified 35th for Sunday's race meant hopes remained relatively low, though. However, a clean race meant Keselowski walked away with his first laps led in a points race and first top-10 finish of the season. Keselowski will be hoping that Sunday's performance is the start of a turnaround of fortune in the run toward the playoffs. Fantasy players should be careful, though. At Nashville, Keselowski has just one top-15 finish. His average result from the four races held there is just 22.0, too. While Charlotte was an encouraging and rewarding night, it may take some time yet to climb completely out of the slump.