NASCAR Barometer: Larson Wins in Fourth Start for Hendrick

Kyle Larson was one of the fastest cars on the track Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway right from the green flag. The Hendrick Motorsports driver missed stage points in the opening segment of the Pennzoil 400, but got ahead of Brad Keselowski in the second and then went on to score the win in dominating fashion. The win is the second consecutive for Hendrick Motorsports and marks the fourth different winner in as many races as the 2021 season gets underway. Larson and the rest of the drivers now turn their attention to Phoenix Raceway for this week's race. The site of the season finale saw Chase Elliott take the victory there last fall, but it was Joey Logano who won there in the spring. 

The 2021 season has proven to be hard to predict, but Sunday's race in Las Vegas could show fantasy owners what to expect as the schedule progresses. Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Penske Racing filled out the top nine positions with Erik Jones in his Richard Petty Motorports ride as the interloper to close out the top 10. The first four races have shown those three teams to be waging a battle at the front, and fantasy managers can now see who they should expect to be at the front each week in the future.

UPGRADE

Kyle Larson – Larson got his first stage victory with Hendrick Motorsports in the second segment of Sunday's Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and then carried that speed into the final segment to win his first race in his fourth start with his new team. The Chevrolet driver was one of the quickest in the early miles, he passed Keselowski and didn't look back after that. He was the face out front for the vast majority of the remaining and miles and built a comfortable lead that allowed him to cruise to victory. Larson has seven top-10 finishes from 13 Phoenix starts, hasn't finished worse than sixth in his last four races at the track and has made an emphatic return to the series.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski drove his way to the front along with his Penske Racing teammates and won the opening stage Sunday in Las Vegas. That pace kept him inside the top five for the remaining miles, but it wasn't enough to reel in Larson. Instead, Keselowski was forced to settle for a distant second-place finish, his second top-five of the young season. Penske Racing and the No. 2 machine have shown enough speed to race consistently in the top five this season, but haven't been able to make it through to be first across the finish line. Keselowski has 11 top-10s from 23 Phoenix starts. He has two runner-up finishes at the track, including the championship finale last season, and just needs a little more to visit Victory Lane this season.

Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing put all four of its drivers in the top 10 on Sunday, and Busch's third-place finish was the best of the bunch. The former champion had a season to forget in 2020, but has learned from those troubles and has gotten off to a better start in 2021. Sunday's finish was Busch's first top-five of the season and second top-10 in as many weeks. With extra momentum, he heads to Phoenix this coming week, a venue at which he has three wins. He finished third in the spring race there last season, and his 11th-place finish in the fall was the first time he failed to score a top-10 there since 2014. Busch and JGR are one of the fastest teams early this season, and it shouldn't be too long before Busch uses that strength to win.

William Byron – Byron's win two weeks ago at Homestead Miami Speedway was no fluke. The Hendrick Motorsports driver backed up that 1.5-mile oval pace Sunday in Las Vegas, scoring points in both opening stages and then driving to an eighth-place race finish. It was Byron's second top-10 of the season and comes as the team already has a championship playoff spot in its pocket. Phoenix is the site of the season finale, so Byron and team will be working to learn as much as they can in hopes they advance to the final four this season. Byron has three top-10s from six Phoenix starts, but his best finish is only ninth, and he hasn't led any laps there since he was a rookie in 2018. This could be the week that changes.

Ryan Blaney - Sunday's visit to Las Vegas produced a confident and uneventful fifth-place finish for Blaney, his best finish of the season so far. The Penske Racing driver has had his share of bad luck and hadn't been able to lock in a top-10 despite having the speed to do so. That changed on Sunday as all three Penske drivers finished in the top 10. The team hasn't been able to close out races, though. However, Blaney has needed more work than his teammates to climb the ladder. Sunday's relatively quiet top-five should give him the confidence to build upon, however. He has five top-10s from 10 Phoenix starts, including sixth-place last fall.

DOWNGRADE

Bubba Wallace – Wallace suffered a mechanical issue before the first stage of Sunday's race even finished. The Toyota driver found himself in the pits dealing with a cut oil line and facing a last-place finish before the race truly even matured. When Wallace made it back to the track, he was already multiple laps down and then spent the rest of the afternoon running well outside of the top 20. Wallace has one top-10 from six Phoenix starts. He finished 19th and 15th in the two trips to the desert oval last season. This new team will take some time to find its footing, and races like Sunday's should be a lesson from which it can learn and build as the season progresses.

Aric Almirola – Almirola bounced off of the outside wall after a tire failure early in the final stage Sunday. The wreck brought out the caution and sent Almirola to the pits for repairs. Ultimately, the team couldn't make the fixes necessary to get him back into the action and he left the circuit with a last-place finish. It was a disappointing day in all for the Stewart Haas Racing teammates, and Almirola's premature finish just ended the misery earlier for the No. 10 team. Almirola has six top-10 Phoenix finishes from 20 career starts, but his best results at the track have come since joining Stewart Haas Racing. He was eighth in the spring race last season, and four of those six top-10s have come since 2018.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick dropped like a rock after starting from pole on Sunday. Within the first 10 laps he was complaining of a tight car and clearly did not have the speed to keep up front. He failed to score stage points in either of the opening segments and came home a lap down in the 20th position. It was an uncharacteristic day for the former champion, and the team has a lot of work to do before Phoenix to figure out why they lacked the speed of the rest of the field. Phoenix is a place where Harvick is one of the best, but after winning 25 percent of his starts at the track, he hasn't visited Victory Lane since 2018. He started and finished second there in the spring race last season, but this time he heads there on the backfoot.

Alex Bowman – Bowman could not extend his run of top-10 finishes to three with a top result in Las Vegas. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has now seen two of his teammates win in the first four races of the season. A flat tire this week was the culprit that kept him out of the top 10, however. In the final segment, he made an aggressive swing onto pit road to save having to make a complete lap on the failed tire, which could have caused significant damage. The unplanned stop came late in the running, and with no yellow flags to help him recover, he languished a lap down and outside of the top 20. It was bad luck for Bowman, someone whom most managers likely expected to have scored one of Hendrick's first wins of the season. Up next is Phoenix where he has just one top-10 finish, too.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Erik Jones – For some reason, Jones did not have the success he probably should have with Joe Gibbs Racing. His lack of production with the team saw him dropped and in a new car with Richard Petty Motorsports for 2021. The Petty organization has struggled in recent seasons, but Jones might be the best talent they've had behind the wheel in quite some time. The proof was shown Sunday in Las Vegas when Jones drove to a 10th-place finish, his first top-10 with the team, at one of the more competitive tracks on the calendar. Jones and RPM may not be in line to run for the title this season, but fantasy players may find that they have a reliable option further down the order in the No. 43 machine.