NASCAR Barometer: Larson Wins at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International hosted the NASCAR Cup Series Sunday in a return to action after a two-week summer break. Team Penske teammates held the top three starting positions, but Kyle Larson was the one who played his cards right to develop a comfortable lead in the final segment and drive to his fifth win of the season. The No. 5 left the rest of the field in his rearview mirror once he fought his way into the lead, and not even a valiant charge from the reigning road-course king, Chase Elliott, was enough to threaten him as he cruised to his second road-course win of the season. Larson now stands even with Denny Hamlin for the regular-season points lead with three races remaining until the championship playoffs get underway.

The playoff picture remains roughly the same after the break with three spots left for nonwinning drivers. Tyler Reddick retains the final transfer spot and extends his margin over teammate Austin Dillon. The drivers and teams go road-course racing again this week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway before returning to the ovals for the final two regular-season races at Michigan and Daytona.

UPGRADE

Kyle Larson – Larson snagged his second road-course win of the season with a mistake-free run Sunday at Watkins Glen. The Hendrick Motorsports driver started fourth and kept himself in contention, ultimately leveraging pit stops to move into the lead. From there he nursed his equipment and maintained a comfortable margin all the way to the finish for his fifth victory of the season. He had one of the fastest cars that afternoon, but it was the lack of mistakes that earned him the victory. The win was the 11th of his career and rekindled his momentum after three straight races without a top-five. Sunday's win also makes him a potential new favorite on road courses, too. 

Chase Elliott – Inspection issues Sunday at Watkins Glen left Elliott to lose his 11th-place starting position along with his crew chief. What might have been a positive start to the afternoon quickly turned into a nightmare as Elliott struggled to move up through the field quickly and had to pit early in the second stage after locking his wheels into turn 1. He put those incidents behind him after that and mounted a savage charge back through the field to finish second, ultimately unable to chase down and challenge Larson for the win. Regardless of the mistakes, Elliott remains one of the best road course drivers in the series, but he will have to overcome another challenging starting position again this week at Indianapolis. 

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex made his way to the front to win the second stage to remind fans that he once was the dominant driver on road courses. He had the speed to run at the front all afternoon and did not make any mistakes. He leaves Watkins Glen with a nice third-place finish, his second from the last three races, but he may feel a bit disappointed his car didn't have the pace to mount more of a challenge to the two Hendrick cars that finished ahead of him. That may be the theme as the playoffs approach, too. Truex's last road-course win came at Sonoma in 2019, and he appears to have rediscovered his form on these tracks with three top-10s from the last three this season.

Christopher Bell – Bell entered Sunday's race with a nice head of momentum with two runner-up finishes in the three most recent races. That confidence nearly carried him to the lead, where he was racing in a three-car battle with Kyle Larson and teammate Truex, before making contact with the No. 5 in the first turn. The contact left Bell facing the wrong direction off the track as the leaders raced away. He recovered and bagged an admirable seventh-place finish for his 10th top-10 finish of the season and fourth in as many races. Bell has made himself a driver fantasy owners should consider on road courses, and this week's trip to Indianapolis should be another opportunity for him to race at the front of the field

Joey Logano – Logano followed teammate Brad Keselowski in the early laps, after starting on the front row, until the No. 2 lost control under braking. That mistake allowed Logano through to the lead, which he held to win the opening stage Sunday at Watkins Glen. Unfortunately, later in the race, Logano was taken out from behind when Keselowski spun again and slid backward into the side of the No. 22 machine. That incident sent Logano spinning off the track and tumbling down the order, which he was ultimately unable to recover from and finished a disappointing 22nd. Logano only has one road course win, but he had string of five top-fives on the configuration until Road America's 15th-place finish earlier this season.

DOWNGRADE

Alex Bowman – Bowman may hope to forget Sunday's trip to Watkins Glen sooner rather than later. The Hendrick Motorsports driver had an enviable top-10 starting spot and went on to finish the first stage in seventh position. By the end of the second stage, he had slipped outside of the top 15, all the way to 18th, and ended the race a disappointing 20th. Sunday's finish was his second in a row of 20th or lower on a road course, which won't inspire much confidence from fantasy players this week as the series heads to the road course at Indianapolis. Bowman will need everything in his arsenal to get things turned around in the final three races before the playoffs.

Brad Keselowski – Despite starting from pole and leading the opening laps, Keselowski struggled with braking much of the day at Watkins Glen. The Team Penske driver developed the problems early in the race before losing control and spinning out of the lead just prior to the competition caution at lap 10. That wasn't the end of his trouble, though. Later in the running, he also lost control into turn 1, spun into the inside grass, and backed into teammate Logano ahead of him. The contact dropped both cars in the running order and left Keselowski with rear-end damage to deal with, too. Keselowski has no series victories on a road course and also hasn't finished in the top 10 at one since February.

Ryan Blaney – Team Penske may have swept the starting positions Sunday, but none of the teammates were in contention as the race finished. While Logano and Keselowski tripped over one another, Blaney was having problems of his own. The team pitted early in the first stage, giving up points in favor of strategy, only to have that strategy fail miserably as the race wore on. The team pitted again under yellow in the second stage and was never able to regain track position, leaving him with a 14th-place finish. Blaney had been gaining momentum with three finishes of sixth or better, but fantasy players may wish to see how he responds this week on the Indianapolis road course.

Austin Dillon – Dillon lost his championship playoff spot just before the break when Aric Almirola captured an unlikely win at New Hampshire. That victory thrust Dillon into an intramural battle around the cutline with teammate Tyler Reddick. On any other weekend, his 15th-place Watkins Glen finish might have been enough to keep him in contention, but Reddick had a better day and walked away with a top-10. The five-point gap that separated the two prior to last week's race expanded to 15. Dillon either has to win or beat his teammate each week to make up that gap and reclaim a spot in the playoffs. He has three races to get the job done but may be watching his hopes slowly disappear.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Chase Briscoe – A top finish at a road course is not a big surprise from Briscoe, but Sunday's performance was a bit more unique. The Stewart Haas Racing driver finished sixth at both Road America and Circuit of the Americas this season, and his ninth-place finish Sunday at Watkins Glen was his third of the season. Those results prove he has the chops for road-course racing, but what is even more impressive is that he started outside of the top 25 in all three of those races. His good run Sunday will parlay itself into a better starting spot this week at Indianapolis, where he should be a reliable fantasy option.