NASCAR Barometer: Larson Enters Championship Finale

Kyle Larson went to Victory Lane for the second time in as many weeks Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports driver kicked off the final round of elimination races in the best possible way and dominated the race, leading 256 of 334 laps to win and earn his first appearance in the championship finale in his first season with Hendrick. The team has two weeks to focus on preparing the best possible car for the championship-deciding trip to Phoenix while the remainder of the championship contenders have to figure out how to join him there. Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch leave Texas momentarily in the other championship spots, but those positions aren't set in stone yet, with Larson's teammate Chase Elliott just eight points behind Busch in fifth.

Two races remain for those drivers to lock themselves into the final four, and up this week is a return trip to Kansas Speedway. Kyle Busch won there earlier this season, leading just 20 laps to win a race Larson dominated. Those two split the stage wins that day, while Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski rounded out the top three. Keselowski's teammate, Joey Logano, won at the track last fall, which shows anything could still happen as the season marches toward its conclusion.

UPGRADE

Kyle Larson – Larson led much of the first two stages Sunday in Texas. His car was quick, but a stop late in the first segment left that stage for Kyle Busch. The second was Larson's opportunity to top the segment despite just narrowly holding off teammate William Byron at the line. The final stage was his opportunity to book his spot in the championship finale. Despite having to weather multiple late-race restarts, Larson held station at the front of the field and survived the final miles out front to win for the eighth time this season, claiming the first of four spots to race for the title in Phoenix. Larson has five top-10s from 13 Kansas starts, but he led 132 laps there in the spring race and another 60 last fall when he finished 14th.

William Byron – Like the majority of his Hendrick teammates, Byron had the speed to race at the front of the field throughout Sunday's race. Byron led 55 laps of a race teammate Larson dominated, and he finished second after fending off attacks from behind each and every restart. Even contact and a tire rub couldn't keep the No. 24 from powering his way to the end to claim his 11th top-five finish of the season and first since Bristol. He isn't in the championship fight any longer, but continuing to finish in the top five will keep valuable points from going to his teammates' competitors. Up next is Kansas where he has four top-10s from seven starts, all of which came in his last four visits.

Chase Elliott – A vibration in his car in the second stage sent Elliott to pit road off-cycle. Then a caution for debris a short time later trapped him a lap down, but staying on track while the leaders pitted enabled him to get back onto the same laps as the leaders for the remainder of the stage. The defending season champion spent the rest of the afternoon clawing his way back toward the front, ultimately finishing seventh in an eventful afternoon. He leaves Texas just eight points behind Kyle Busch and the top four positions in the standings, and has some work to do to get to Phoenix for a chance at defending his title. Elliott won at Kansas in 2018 and finished fifth at the track in the first visit there this season. 

Kyle Busch – A fuel-save run in the first stage gave Busch the opening segment win in Sunday's race after an early speed penalty nearly saw him caught up in a wreck at the back of the field. The circumstances proved to be a lucky break, since a quick stop on pit road to check for damage and no lost additional track position gave him a bit more gas than the competition. The team lost the handling on the car in the middle of the distance, which left Busch a step behind the top five. Hard racing and no further mistakes earned him an eighth-place finish, which leaves him fourth in the championship standings with two races remaining in the round. He won at Kansas earlier this year and finished fifth in the fall race there in 2020. 

DOWNGRADE

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin was quick enough to race for a top finish, if not the win, Sunday, but late contact with Blaney caused a flat rear tire. That slight contact cause him to spin and tap the inside wall. He gathered things up and made it to pit road and change tires without losing a lap, but the contact with the wall heavily affected the characteristics of the car for the final laps. Pitting for the repairs also forced him to the back of the field, since the pits closed due to his initial spin. It wasn't the start to the round that Hamlin wanted, but he has Kansas ahead this week where he has three prior victories. He finished 15th and 12th in the last two races there but won the two before that. He has two more chances to overcome and make it into the championship finale.

Martin Truex Jr.  – Truex was another championship contender who was positioning himself for a nice start to the final round of eliminations and advance to Phoenix in the championship finale. It all came apart with less than 20 laps left in the race, though. While racing in the pack following the restart after teammate Hamlin's spin, Truex made slight contact with Daniel Suarez. That rear contact sent him sliding and hard into the outside wall after overcorrecting. The damage was enough to take him completely out of the race in a severe blow to his championship hopes. Truex has won twice at Kansas and has only finished worse than 11th once in the last 10 races there. He may need to win this week if he wants to race for the title at Phoenix.

Kurt Busch – Busch has been quick throughout the playoffs despite an early exit from the battle. The same was true Sunday in Texas as he raced consistently in the top 10. A loose rear wheel early in the final stage sent him to pit road and a lap down, however. That was basically the end of the day for the No. 1 team, as they went on to finish two laps down in the 16th spot. While Sunday was a disappointment, the team is only racing for wins at this point. Busch has never won at Kansas but he does have 12 top-10 finishes there. He was 15th at the track earlier this season and finished ninth in the spring race last season. He may be a better choice for fantasy rosters in two weeks at Martinsville, though.

Joey Logano – Sunday was a huge blow to Logano's championship hopes. The Team Penske driver was fast on track but missed out on stage points in the first two segments of the race. While driving to put himself into position to capitalize at the finish, his engine gave way in a plume of smoke. The catastrophic failure was a rarity for the team this season but came at the worst possible moment. Logano entered the weekend seventh in points among the championship contenders and now faces a must-win situation in order to make it to Phoenix to race among the final four. He has three prior wins at Kansas including this race last fall, however. He was 17th in the spring and didn't lead any laps, which may make this year's title a longshot for him. 

Alex Bowman – Bowman may no longer be in the championship battle, but his presence at the front of the field would have been useful for his teammates who are still in the fight. Unfortunately, Bowman never got to demonstrate what pace he had at Texas after he was caught in an early multicar crash. Bowman suffered heavy damage to his car, which put him out of the race before 50 laps were complete, leaving him classified as the 33rd-place finisher. Fantasy players may want to be cautious choosing him this coming week at Kansas as well. He had been getting closer to regular top-10 finishes at the track but only managed a finish of 18th there in the spring after starting 25th.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Brad Keselowski – After Talladega, most people have been talking more positively about Keselowski's Penske teammates in terms of this season's championship, but Keselowski may have changed the conversation Sunday at Texas. The former champion was the fastest of the Penske cars and left the race with a fourth-place finish, best among the three teammates. He still has work to do to climb from seventh in the standings into the final four, but Keselowski looked the most likely of the Penske cars to potentially win. We'll have to stay tuned to see if that carries into this week's race at Kansas, but Keselowski has proven that the book isn't closed on his career with this team just yet.