This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series crowned Kyle Larson its champion Sunday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway. The Hendrick Motorsports driver captured the top starting spot Saturday and then capitalized on a late-race pit stop to gain track position and drive away to his 10th victory of the season. This championship was the result of teamwork, as Larson was watching the trophy slip through his fingers late in the race only for his crew to come up with one of its fastest pit stops of the season to put Larson out front for the final restart. That move gave Larson the track position he needed to fend off Martin Truex Jr. for the final 24 laps of the race to win and claim his first series championship. Denny Hamlin finished third behind Truex, while Chase Elliott failed to defend his 2020 championship and finished fifth behind Team Penske's Ryan Blaney.
Next season could be entirely different than what fantasy players have grown accustomed to the past two years. The biggest change will be the introduction of the new car, which all teams will be working to understand as quickly as possible. That change is enough to level the playing field and put even the strongest 2021 contenders on the back foot. On-track practice and qualifying will also return with significant changes. A shorter practice time than the past, coupled with qualifying immediately following the brief session, will add a new wrinkle to the proceedings. Teams and drivers will be challenged to
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series crowned Kyle Larson its champion Sunday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway. The Hendrick Motorsports driver captured the top starting spot Saturday and then capitalized on a late-race pit stop to gain track position and drive away to his 10th victory of the season. This championship was the result of teamwork, as Larson was watching the trophy slip through his fingers late in the race only for his crew to come up with one of its fastest pit stops of the season to put Larson out front for the final restart. That move gave Larson the track position he needed to fend off Martin Truex Jr. for the final 24 laps of the race to win and claim his first series championship. Denny Hamlin finished third behind Truex, while Chase Elliott failed to defend his 2020 championship and finished fifth behind Team Penske's Ryan Blaney.
Next season could be entirely different than what fantasy players have grown accustomed to the past two years. The biggest change will be the introduction of the new car, which all teams will be working to understand as quickly as possible. That change is enough to level the playing field and put even the strongest 2021 contenders on the back foot. On-track practice and qualifying will also return with significant changes. A shorter practice time than the past, coupled with qualifying immediately following the brief session, will add a new wrinkle to the proceedings. Teams and drivers will be challenged to get a grip on the changes quickly to gain an early advantage when the season roars back to life next February.
UPGRADE
Kyle Larson – Larson started Sunday's championship finale from pole and battled in the top five through the first stage of the race. He then moved to the front again in the second stage, leading 32 laps and winning the second segment. However, Larson fell back in the final miles and looked likely to lose the battle before a late caution gave him the opening he needed. His pit crew turned in their second-fastest stop of the year, which put Larson out front for the final restart. A quick launch propelled him into the lead, and then a quick shift to the top line meant no one could mount a serious challenge. He then drove into the distance to grab his 10th win of the season and his first series championship in his first year with Hendrick.
Martin Truex Jr. – The No. 19 team was arguably the most unlikely of the four drivers to make it into the championship finale, and the weekend didn't start the best after he qualified slowest among the four. However, Truex was quick early and took the lead late in the first stage with a strong move to the inside of the track while Blaney and Kevin Harvick battled ahead of him. He scooted in front of the pair and proceeded to leave them both in the dust as he went on to the win the opening stage. His car remained competitive and he moved into position to win in the second stage until a late caution and stops for the final four took away his track position. That twist of fate turned out to be the only thing that separated Truex from a second championship.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin earned another appearance in the championship finale after an impressive 2021 season. He qualified sixth, third-fastest of the championship contenders, and was well positioned for the race. His car was competitive in the early miles and he finished in the top four in both opening stages. However, Hamlin ended the day third with no laps led. He was the only championship contender not to lead, and the trophy looked out of reach without some surprise help. While it was his 19th top-five of the year, it was not enough to distinguish himself among the championship contenders, and another opportunity at a first title slipped away. It was a great season for Hamlin, but not a championship season. He'll try again in 2022.
Chase Elliott – Elliott put himself on a trajectory late in the season to advance to the championship finale with a chance to defend his 2020 series title. He entered the weekend with nothing to lose and had the equipment to have a good chance to repeat. A strong qualifying effort put him on the front row, and he went on to lead 94 laps. However, the handling left him in the final stage and he slid backward among the championship contenders, finishing the afternoon in fifth position behind Blaney. It may not have ended with another championship, but Elliott's season was a success by almost any other measure. His No. 9 team scored 19 top-fives and 25 top-10s, second in both categories only to the championship winner. That should make him a contender again next year.
Ryan Blaney – Among the drivers, Blaney may have shown the most promise for championship battles of the future. The Team Penske driver was arguably the fastest among his teammates throughout the season, but multiple mistakes and other unfortunate circumstances ended his title charge early. He showed his speed again Sunday at Phoenix with a fourth-place finish and 33 laps led. Still, it was Blaney's best season in the series and hints at more to come. With three wins, 11 top-fives, and 20 top-10s, Blaney is among elite company. In order to live up to the potential, the whole team needs to improve. Over the winter they must focus on getting the most out of the new car and eliminating mistakes. Those steps should make Blaney an early title favorite.
DOWNGRADE
Matt DiBenedetto – DiBenedetto's final race with Wood Brothers Racing ended with a 12th-place finish. That was his fourth top-15 finish in the last five races of the season, and he ended the campaign with three top-fives and nine top-10s. He came close to race wins on multiple occasions but never got the job done. A win or another appearances in the playoffs might have been enough to convince a team owner to offer him a ride for next season before 2021 ended, but as far as we know, Sunday's race might have been his last in the Cup Series. Time will tell if DiBenedetto will line up for the start of the 2022 season. Until then, fantasy managers will have to wait and see if he can continue to be a regular top-15 choice for their rosters in the future.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick spent the majority of the 2021 season behind the series leaders. Despite making it into the playoffs, he was at his most competitive only after being eliminated from championship contention. It was one of his worst seasons on average since joining Stewart Haas Racing, and the organization as a whole struggled. Only Aric Almirola managed to score a win. Harvick's down year would be remarkable even if it weren't just one season removed from nine race wins in 2020. It was the first time he went winless since 2009, and a late-season feud with Elliott seemed to be evidence of his frustration boiling over. The team gets a reset next season with the new car, but they enter the offseason a step behind the rest of the garage.
Kyle Busch – While 2021 may have been a better season than last for Busch, it still fell short of expectations. Two teammates advanced to the final, but Busch was eliminated prior. He graded his season an "F" after elimination, but doubled his win tally from 2020. It was the first time since 2007 that Busch produced consecutive seasons with two wins or less, which is just further magnified by him missing out on the championship four. His ninth-place finish in the championship standings was also his worst since 2014 when he finished 10th. The return of on-track practice and qualifying, albeit with significant changes, could help Busch next season, but the bigger difference will likely be the teams' ability to come up to speed with the new car.
Ryan Newman – Newman finished 23rd Sunday at Phoenix, which was the ninth race in a row he finished 20th or worse. He ended the season 28th in the standings with two top-fives and five top-10s. It was his worst season in the championship standings, even coming in below 2020 when he missed three races after a heavy crash in the Daytona 500. No future plans have been announced for the veteran, and it is conceivable that Sunday was his last full-time race in the series. Roush Fenway Racing has been behind the competition for a few years, but showed competitive pace on rough-surfaced 1.5-mile ovals this year. That is something to build on for 2022, and the new car may help close the gap. Newman won't be part of that tale, though.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
William Byron – Again in 2021 Byron demonstrated his strength in the playoff races. He was eliminated from championship contention in the round of 12 but rebounded quickly with three finishes of sixth or better in the round of eight. He finished 17th in the championship finale, but his 10th-place rank in the standings is the best of his four years in the series. He tripled his top-five tally from a year prior and delivered an impressive 20 top-10 finishes. Byron has proven to be a valuable choice for fantasy players the past two years, and his trajectory could even increase next season, as everyone adapts to the new car. Byron's dedication to simulations could give him the early advantage next year as the season kicks off at Daytona.
