NASCAR Barometer: Kyle Larson Books Championship Spot

Sunday's South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway was the first opportunity for the eight remaining championship contenders had to book their spot among the final four contenders for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship, and Kyle Larson seized the opportunity by sweeping the stages and winning to become the first driver with a spot in the championship finale. The former champion started on the front row, alongside Christopher Bell, and immediately jumped into the lead for a dominant afternoon. While it wasn't the cleanest afternoon for the No. 5, Larson held it together and was the car to beat all afternoon with Bell coming in second after running out of race distance to make a pass for the win.

The final three races of the 2023 season are upon us, and there are two chances left for the other seven playoff contenders to claim their place alongside Larson at Phoenix. Homestead-Miami Speedway is next on the countdown, and it was Larson who won last season's race. Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Blaney are all chasing from behind with William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. working hard to retain their places in the top four positions in the playoff standings.

UPGRADE

Kyle Larson - Larson started on the front row and jumped into the lead at the start in Las Vegas. After losing the top spot briefly, he grabbed it back through pit stops and went on to score the important stage victory. Things got a bit more difficult for him in the second stage, too. He didn't retain the lead through the stage break and didn't have clean air for much of the second segment, but he won that one, too. His car was just too much for the field to overcome, and even a late push from Christopher Bell came up short as Larson won in dominant fashion to claim the first of the four championship slots at Phoenix. With two races to go before that, he and the team will be making sure everything is perfect for that weekend. Staying on top of the standings is one way to do that and at Homestead, Larson is the defending winner.

Christopher Bell - Bell started the Las Vegas race weekend off well by claiming pole on Saturday. When Sunday came, he was largely the second best car, though. Bell lost the lead right from the start to Larson, but the Joe Gibbs Racing driver held on to finish second in the segment. He went on to finish third in the second segment, and made adjustments that allowed him to reel in Larson in the closing laps of the race. All told, Bell led 61 laps, which was second only to Larson. If Bell had perhaps just one more lap, he might have passed Larson to win, too. However, only one driver could lock up a championship spot Sunday, and Bell came up just a bit too short. With three top-fives in the last five races make Bell one of the favorites to advance despite leaving Las Vegas sitting outside of the top four. 

Ross Chastain - The Trackhouse Racing team delivered for Chastain Sunday at Las Vegas. Despite being knocked out of the playoffs, Chastain was still hunting for wins and adjustments in the middle of the race gave him the car he needed to get to the front. While it wasn't enough to give him the car he needed to challenge for the win, it was enough to keep him inside the top five all the way to the finish. Sunday's top-five was Chastain's third top-10 finish in the last five races and second top-five in the last four. He may not be in the playoffs any longer, but those results are competitive. That competitiveness should carry forward, too. Chastain only has four series starts at Homestead, but his best finish there was a runner-up result last season. Any ground they make up in these last three races will help spring them forward into 2024.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin may not have been at the front of the field Sunday at Las Vegas, but his consistency continued to pay dividends. After picking up stage points in both segments, Hamlin went on to finish ninth after Ryan Blaney was disqualified. It was his 17th top-10 of the season and his fourth from the last five races. It has been a very good and consistent season for the No. 11, and anything less than a spot among the championship four would be a disappointment. With two races remaining in the final elimination round, Hamlin is looking good, too. He leaves Las Vegas third in points, but the margin to the drop zone is razor thin. Hamlin must continue to add stage points each week, and a win this week at Homestead would be even better. He took pole position in six of his last eight Homestead starts and has three career victories at Homestead.

DOWNGRADE

Ryan Blaney - At the finish of Sunday's race it appeared as though Blaney and his team gave it everything they had, but his deficit to a spot among the final four grew when he was disqualified after post-race inspection. NASCAR discovered that the left-front shock didn't meet the specified length. He lost all the stage points he picked up and took just a single point from the entire Las Vegas trip.  It wasn't the best afternoon to begin with for him and the team, and the disqualification made that situation even worse. With two races remaining, Blaney sits 56 points behind the top four spots and will need a win in the next two races to have a chance at racing for the 2023 title. Blaney has just one top-10 finish at Homestead, and that was 2020 when he finished third. He finished 17th there last season. 

Chris Buescher - The going got tough for Buescher at Las Vegas. While his teammate battled for the lead, Buescher struggled in the pack and failed to score stage points. The team kept working, and after Blaney's disqualification, Buescher was awarded a top-10 finish. When you are battling for one of the top four spots, a top-10 isn't going to cut it, though. Buescher and team just took too long to find their legs at Las Vegas, and while they limited the damage that could have been inflicted, the race wasn't what they were aiming for. They have two more chances to get things turned around, though. Buescher's best Homestead finish came last season when he finished 13th. His average result from seven career starts is 19.7, which means the tough going doesn't seem like it will get any easier this week.

Martin Truex Jr. - Sunday's first stage seemed promising for Truex. There seemed to be top-10 speed in the car and a top result could be within reach. That promise faded quickly as the race went on, though. By the final stage, Truex was mired in the pack and couldn't find the adjustments needed to work his way forward until it was too late. He was able to claw his way back inside the top 10 in the final miles, but there was no realistic chance of fighting for the win. Truex left the weekend fourth in the standings, but with only a three-point margin back to teammate Bell, who had a shot at the race win.  Continuing that trend, Bell should overtake the former champion for one of the three remaining championship spots. He will have to be more consistent throughout the next race in order to build his margin or potentially grab a Homestead win, like he did in 2017. 

Ty Gibbs - Gibbs wasn't immune to the tire issues that plagued much of the field Sunday at Las Vegas, except his was a little different than the others. As the final stage aged, he suffered a loose front wheel that sent him into the outside wall. A lug nut not being properly secured means an automatic suspension from NASCAR, which is exactly what the No. 54 team now faces in the final races of the season. As if the damage from his initial contact with the wall wasn't enough, the same tire suffered another failure with less than 30 laps remaining and the rookie slipped back to finish 33rd, eight laps behind the leaders. Sunday was another learning experience for Gibbs and the team in his first full-time season. There will be more learning opportunities, but 2024 is where his sights are starting to focus. Gibbs started sixth in his Homestead start last season but finished 22nd.

Alex Bowman - The 2023 season woes continued for Bowman last week. After qualifying 14th, Bowman felt the car getting tight in the second stage only to lose control and clout the outside barrier. The damage to the right side of the car was severe and Bowman's afternoon ended with more than 100 laps remaining. It was Bowman's second finish outside of the top 25 from the last three races and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates have been outpacing him consistently every week. His season was stunted by injury and the missed races resulting from that kept him out of the playoffs, but he continues to languish around the top 20 in the standings. He only has four top-10 finishes since returning from injury, and all focus now must be on making sure that 2024 produces a better outcome. Until then, fantasy players should proceed with caution.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Kyle Busch - After being bounced out of the playoffs, Busch rebounded with back-to-back third-place finishes in the last two races. In the 12 races since Atlanta, Busch finished 20th or lower seven times with only three top-10 finishes. In fact, Busch only had one top-10 finish in the playoffs before being eliminated. His recent good form just came too late to save his championship. However, the ground Busch and team make up now could help them as they work toward more consistency in 2024. This season was their first together and there is bound to be growth as they work together longer. If that growth results in more consistency in 2024, Busch could once again be near the front of the championship battle. His top finishes the last two weeks were just too late for the current season.