NASCAR Barometer: Kyle Busch Wins Talladega in Overtime

Talladega Superspeedway produced all of the twists and turns in Sunday's GEICO 500 that have made the track one of the most exciting on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The race featured 57 lead changes and eight cautions as the result came down to an overtime finish where Kyle Busch avoided cars crashing around him in a battle for the win. The former champion positioned himself to strike on the final restart when Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace dueled alongside him, with Wallace ultimately spinning out and triggering a crash that ended the race on the white-flag lap. The victory was the second for Busch this season and his first superspeedway win with Richard Childress Racing, one of the greats on those types of circuits. Busch joins William Byron and Kyle Larson as multiple-race winners this season.

Next on the docket is the annual visit to Dover Motor Speedway. The tough concrete oval has just one series appearance on the calendar, but is no less valuable on the path to the playoffs. Chase Elliott won at the track last season, and Alex Bowman won there in 2021. Those two Chevrolet wins reinforce the strength the manufacturer has shown this season with seven wins from the first 10 races. The challenging 1.0-mile concrete surface awaits those looking to make their mark on the 2023 season with a victory to put themselves in playoff contention.

UPGRADE

Kyle Busch – Busch was in the right place at the right time on Sunday's final restart, avoiding the crash that ended the race, leaving him out front when the caution came. The win was the second of his career at Talladega and his second of the season since joining Richard Childress Racing. The team initially called him to pit road for a splash of gasoline to ensure a finish, but Busch ultimately stayed on track, inherited the lead, and nursed his car to the finish line before it ran out of fuel during his celebratory burnout. It was a healthy dose of luck that Busch was able to maximize by putting himself at the front for the final miles. The luck that carried the team to victory Sunday could persist this week at Dover, too. Busch is a three-time winner at the track with nothing to lose due to his two 2023 victories.

Chase Elliott – Elliott scored his first stage victory of 2023 Sunday in just his second start since returning from a broken leg. It was his third stage win at Talladega and topped off a powerful opening segment of the race for Hendrick Motorsports. After two weeks of racing, following the last six he spent on the couch recovering, there do not seem to be any concerns that the former champion is being held back by his injury. In fact, Elliott appears to be picking up right where he left off in February with finishes of 10th and 12th in his first two races back. NASCAR has also granted the former champion an eligibility waiver for the playoffs should he qualify for the knockout competition. It will take some work but all signs point to him being in the playoffs this season despite the time out.

Aric Almirola - Not many drivers know superspeedway racing better than Aric Almirola, and he proved that again Sunday at Talladega as he raced to the second stage win. It was his first stage victory since 2020 and comes a year after deciding not to retire, despite initially saying he would. Sunday was a nice outing for the No. 10 car as Almirola kept it in contention throughout the afternoon and was in position to battle for the win in the closing miles. Getting to that point is the goal of superspeedway racing and Almirola delivered yet again. Unfortunately, chaos often ensues as the racing grows more aggressive with the finish in sight and Almirola was one of the victims of that late chaos. The crash that bit him left him with a 20th-place finish despite being in touch with the lead at the time. All is not lost, though. Almirola has also been quite good at Dover. He scored four top-10 finishes from 19 career starts with two of those being top-fives.

Chase Briscoe - Briscoe became the third driver to have trouble at Talladega after spinning while heading to pit road for his first green-flag stop of the day. He lost control and the resulting spin left his right-front tire flat, which stranded him and brought out the caution. That incident could have been the end of his day, but after the team got him back on track he persisted to take advantage of late cautions to return to the lead lap. That persistence paid off as he was able to avoid the carnage that cost many other drivers top finishes. On a day where a poor finish appeared imminent, Briscoe and team persevered to come away with a fourth-place finish. It was his fourth top-10 finish of the season and his third consecutive top-five. He sits 15th in the championship standings with race wins within his grasp. With a finish of 13th in last year's Dover race he could be a reliable fantasy selection this week, too.

Ryan Blaney - With a little luck, something Blaney has been lacking for multiple seasons, Sunday could have been a victory for the No. 12 team. Blaney was one of the fastest cars throughout the GEICO 500, leading 47 laps and battling for the race win right up until the end. As Blaney made his move on leader Bubba Wallace the pair connected and sent Wallace spinning and left Blaney behind winner Kyle Busch when the yellow flag waved. The result was Blaney's second top-five of the season and second top-10 in as many races. While he remains a playoff contender in the standings, a win would relieve some pressure and allow the team to focus on preparation for the playoffs. The past two top-10s indicate his slump of finishes outside of the top 20 is over and improvements have been made. That could be good news for a trip to Dover where he led eight laps last season.

DOWNGRADE

Joey Logano - On paper Talladega appeared to be another opportunity for Logano to exert his strength versus the competition. However, an early speeding penalty put him in salvage mode, trying to make up as much ground as possible before laps ran out. He eventually returned to the lead lap but was caught in a late-race accident that ended his march back forward. The afternoon ended with the defending champion back off of the lead lap once again and in the 30th finishing position. He scored stage points in the first segment to lessen the blow, but the finish was his third outside of the top 20 from the last five races. The Atlanta victory gives Logano and the team the flexibility to race for wins versus points, momentum is a very important driver of success in NASCAR. Logano will look to regain some of that this week at Dover where he has 15 top-10s from 26 career starts.

Austin Dillon – Dillon's afternoon came to a premature end when Noah Gragson and Harrison Burton trigged a small incident ahead. The No. 3 machine was caught in the stack up behind the incident and was spun helplessly into the infield grass and out of the race. He was one of just two cars eliminated by the time there were less than 50 laps remaining in the otherwise very clean race. Unfortunately, being Talladega, it was an opportunity that was missed for Dillon. He is one of the best superspeedway racers in the garage and left Sunday's event with nothing to show for it. It is a long season, though. Dillon has 17 prior starts at Dover and has a best finish of seventh. He finished 23rd at the track last season and led 49 laps in the spring race in 2020. Dover isn't a track where Dillon would rise to the top of fantasy selections, though. Talladega was. 

Ryan Preece – Talladega should have been another opportunity for Preece to make his mark after joining the Cup Series full time in 2023. He did well to get to the front and lead two laps, but wasn't able to find his way to the finish in a similar position. Like many outcomes at that track, Preece was caught up in an accident ahead that gave him no chance to take evasive action. As Preece was working his way through the carnage, Kyle Larson's car slid back up the track into Preece's path, and the resulting impact eliminated both cars in one instant. The 34th position that he was scored in was his second result outside of the top 30 and third outside of the top 20 from the last five races. While Preece has shown flashes of competitiveness early in the year he hasn't been able to finish out the mission, and that will be a necessity sooner rather than later as the schedule barrels forward.

Michael McDowell – Sunday's race started on the wrong foot for McDowell when a flat tire and issue with the wheel sent him spinning out of the pack. The best news was that he avoided contact with other cars, but there were repairs to be made on pit road that left him well behind the leaders and out of the draft. That scenario set up a long afternoon of largely single-car running for McDowell with no real opportunity to recover. The outcome was essentially to keep the No. 34 on track and completing laps to pick up positions should other cars drop out of the event. When all was said and done McDowell made up just three positions, finishing 35th of 38 cars and 13 laps behind the leaders. McDowell is often a value play for fantasy rosters on superspeedways, but he never got the chance to compete Sunday. The 35th-place finish was his lowest of the season, ending a four race run of top-20 and top-15 finishes. 

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Todd Gilliland – A top-10 finish at Talladega last Sunday extended Gilliland's impressive start to the 2023 season. With his 10th-place in the GEICO 500 Gilliland picked up his third top-10 finish of the season and made it five top-15 finishes from the last six races. That run of good form pushed him to 22nd in the championship standings with Dover coming this weekend, too. Gilliland only has one series start at Dover, but he is proving to be a consistently reliable option for many fantasy players. Front Row Motorsports has been known to find success from time to time in this series, but Gilliland is delivering results that are a step ahead of what many other drivers for the organization have been able to muster. Fantasy players would be wise to keep the driver of the No. 38 machine in mind as long as this momentum persists.