NASCAR Barometer: Kyle Busch Dominates in the Desert

Missing out on the NASCAR weekend sweep last week in Las Vegas spurred Kyle Busch to dominate the weekend behind the wheel in Phoenix. He won the Xfinity series race and then streaked away to win in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series as well. His pace was evident early in Sunday's race and he didn't disappoint, winning the second stage as well as the race. It wasn't all domination, though. Busch was chasing Ryan Blaney in the final miles, but Busch's speed and ability to carry the car through the fuel run allowed him to close and make the pass for the win. Once he passed the Penske Racing Ford he eased away for a comfortable win.

This week is the final leg of the West Coast swing. The Auto Club Speedway is a completely different circuit than ISM Raceway, and that will have a significant impact on the racing. Given what fantasy owners have seen so far this season, they shouldn't be expecting any huge surprises, however. Penske, Stewart-Haas Racing, and Joe Gibbs Racing continue to be the front runners, and no rule changes seem capable of slowing them down.

UPGRADE

Kyle Busch – Busch won the second stage of Sunday's race when Alex Bowman had contact with the outside wall, and he continued that momentum right through the final stage to snag his first Cup win of the season, too. Busch was one of a handful of drivers to use pit strategy late in stage 1 to set the table for a run to the stage win in the second segment. That strategy played out to perfection despite the late caution. He was on top of his game all weekend just one week after missing another yet weekend sweep. Busch has won three times at Fontana and finished outside of the top 10 just once in the last seven at the track.

Ryan Blaney – After watching both teammates visit Victory Lane already this season, Blaney knows he must deliver the goods soon. He came out swinging in Phoenix as the fastest in practice, winning the pole and taking the first stage victory of the afternoon. Unfortunately, he couldn't hold on to a multisecond lead in the final miles, as questions around fuel mileage backed him into the clutches of Kyle Busch. He couldn't hold on and walks away from another race weekend still looking for his first win. Blaney has two top-10s from three races at Fontana, both of which were in the last two races at the circuit. He will need some luck, but this week's track is the kind at which Blaney could get that elusive 2019 victory.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex had a somewhat subdued race in Phoenix until it mattered the most. He spent most of the day running in the top 10 and began reeling in the leader in the final laps. Unfortunately, it was a bit too late as Busch cruised to victory. Still, it was the second time this season that Truex was closing quickly on the leader when the checkered flag waved. His time for a win in 2019 can't be too far away and could be as soon as this week. He won in California last year, leading 125 of 200 laps. It was an impressive performance back then and he seems entirely capable of duplicating that again this time.

Kurt Busch – As predicted at the start of the weekend, Busch delivered on Sunday. The top-10 finish would be good considering his new surroundings at Chip Ganassi Racing, but the fact that it is his third of the season makes it all that more impressive. Busch is certainly hitting on all cylinders with Ganassi and more success is certain to come. He won in Fontana in 2003 and has struggled at the venue recently, though. In the last three races at the track he's averaged a finish of 22.7. That is not good enough to attract fantasy attention this week, but another top-10 this week could make him a lock for rosters two weeks out.

Jimmie Johnson – Sunday was a good day in Phoenix for Johnson as he worked an early two-tire pit strategy to come forward in the field and hold position inside the top five in the final segment. Johnson has dealt with more than his fair share of bad luck the past few seasons but has periodically showed flashes of the speed that led him to seven Cup championships in his career. He may not be quite done yet, and more performances like Sunday's should put him in position to capitalize on late restarts or other teams' misfortune to earn that long-awaited win. This week should be a good gauge of that promise since Johnson has six prior Fontana victories. He finished ninth there last season.

DOWNGRADE

Chase Elliott – Elliott was the first to be slapped with a penalty on Sunday. He jumped pole-sitter Ryan Blaney at the green flag, and NASCAR rewarded him with a drive-through penalty. Elliott's front-row start quickly became a start outside of the top 30 due to the infraction. By the middle of the final segment, he had raced his way back inside the top 10 but was unable to keep his car pointed in the right direction and spun to bring out the caution. It was an up-and-down day for the No. 9 team, and they will have to wait yet another week to get the success they're searching for. Elliott has two top-10s from three Fontana starts along with a 16th-place finish there last year.

Erik Jones – Jones suffered a tire issue that sent him spinning into the wall and out of Sunday's race in Phoenix. The Joe Gibbs Racing team did all they could to return the car to the track but were unable to make enough repairs to get him back up to speed to contend for any significant position gains. Jones has just two Cup starts under his belt at Fontana but has an average start of 9.0 and finish of 9.5. The team has shown promise early in 2019 and needs a little luck to get results in its corner and momentum at its back. With teammates who are contending for wins every week so far, the No. 20 team will be feeling the pressure to turn things around quickly.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski also had trouble in the first segment with a flat tire, but, with no broken pieces on the car, he was able to return to the fray and get back on the lead lap at the end of the first stage. However, the No. 2 team doesn't  need to fight for wins each week after already making a visit to Victory Lane, and it will focus on honing efforts on a long run in the playoffs. That work starts again this week as Keselowski has one Fontana win from 2015, which was the first of his current streak of four top-fives at the track. Phoenix wasn't a great afternoon and that work is a bit more this week as a result.

Alex Bowman – Bowman also suffered a tire problem that sent him into the turn 1 wall late in the second stage. It wasn't the only time it would happen Sunday afternoon, either. Sadly, it looked like Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports were starting to find some traction, but Bowman's incidents kept him out of the party. It was a very frustrating day for the driver of the No. 88 that had been quietly getting a nice start to the 2019 season, and the team came away with nothing to show for the trip to Arizona. This coming week could also be one in which fantasy players want to be wary of Bowman's history. In three starts, his best finish at the track was 13th last season.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Aric Almirola – Almirola turned in another top 2019 finish at Phoenix. He only recently started scoring top-10s at Phoenix, but extended his streak to four consecutively with his fourth-place run on Sunday. Almirola has gotten off to a great start in the 2019 season and is starting to become a perennial figure in the championship playoffs. He hasn't won frequently in the Cup series, but his arrival at Stewart-Haas Racing is giving him that opportunity. Fontana is at which track fantasy players might want to be wary of Almirola, however. He has never scored a top-10 there, and his best finish was 11th in 2015. He finished 12th on the oval last season but could very well improve upon that Sunday.