NASCAR Barometer: Kenseth Outlasts Leaders to Take the Win

Matt Kenseth put himself in position to capitalize on the missteps of the dominant contenders in Sunday's Sylvania 300. To his good fortune, first Brad Keselowski faltered when he was penalized for a restart violation. Kenseth then outlasted Kevin Harvick, the race's other top contender, on fuel mileage to ease to victory and a guaranteed spot in the second round of elimination races in the Chase for the Championship. Kenseth led just 27 of the 300 laps compared to Harvick's 216. Clearly Harvick was the dominant car, and Keselowski appeared to be the only other driver able to challenge, but it was Kenseth who continued his charge and survives to battle for another title.

Sunday's race in New Hampshire dented the hopes of a few Chase contenders. First, Harvick's misery continued this week and the defending champ now faces a must-win situation next week. Clint Bowyer finished 26th and is last in the Chase standings after being assessed a point penalty from Chicago's race. Lastly, Kyle Busch suffered a flat tire and only finished 37th. He now sits one point behind the elimination line and will have to come away from this week's race with a top finish to advance.

UPGRADE

Matt Kenseth – The second race of the Chase sent another Gibbs driver through to the next round via a victory. Kenseth was the top runner left standing Sunday after Harvick lost fuel pressure and relinquished the lead. Kenseth said afterward that you need to be in position to win in order to do so, and Sunday's victory proved him correct. He has won two of his last three races and can rest comfortably for the next week knowing that his position in the championship battle is secure. Kenseth has raced 33 times at Dover, winning twice and earning an average finish of 13.6. He and the team will use this week to build on their success and improve in the few areas that need it.

Denny Hamlin – Another week in the Chase gave Hamlin another top performance. The No. 11 limped through the early season but came on with a vengeance as the regular season came to a close. His momentum remains, and he didn't let his foot off the gas in New Hampshire despite winning last week to advance to the next round. Hamlin doesn't need to do much at Dover, but it is a track at which he has never won. He started from the pole there earlier this season, leading 118 laps before finishing 21st. He has some unfinished business at the concrete oval, and a win before the next round of the Chase would be great motivation to propel him further.

Tony Stewart – Stewart lost a left-front tire due to contact on Sunday, but the spot on the track at which the tire finally failed enabled him to avoid contact with the wall and pit under yellow. The gamble to stay in the race after contact saved Stewart from having to stop under green, which enabled him to stay on the lead lap. He even worked his way into the top 10 after the trouble. Stewart has had a rough season, but his visit at Dover earlier this year gave him a top-20. Sunday's 11th-place finish was his best since Pocono in August. Stewart is already looking ahead to next season, but some of the pieces are beginning to fall in place in 2015.

Jimmie Johnson – A flat front tire under green put Johnson a lap down until a quick caution period after a red flag enabled him to get the lap right back. With fewer than 25 laps remaining, Johnson was back in the top 10, helping his chances to secure a transfer spot to the next round of the championship battle. By the time the drama played out, the No. 48 team found themselves in sixth place, and now have an excellent chance of advancing in the Chase by sitting at fifth in the standings. This week could be even better, too. Johnson has won an unbelievable 10 times at Dover, and could use an 11th victory to advance him one round further in the Chase.

Greg Biffle – Biffle used strategy to overcome a slower chassis compared to the rest of the field last week in New Hampshire, and even lead in the closing stages of the race. The leaders eventually passed him, but he remained in the top 5. the ability to battle for appearances at the front of the field gives this team something to smile about after such a difficult season. Biffle finished the afternoon in fourth place, scoring just his third top-5 finish of the season. Biffle could build on that strength this week, too. He has two Dover wins, but has just one top-10 at the track in his last five tries.

DOWNGRADE

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski, along with Harvick, was one of the fastest cars Sunday. The No. 2 was consistently in the top 5 and even led the race for a brief period. He was black flagged for a late restart, however, which dropped him from contention. NASCAR officials decided Keselowski jumped the start ahead of leader Greg Biffle. The penalty didn't drop the team from the lead lap, but their race was effectively over. A number of contenders running out of fuel in the final laps boosted him to 12th, salvaging valuable championship points. Keselowski has three top-5 finishes in the last five Dover races. He led more than 100 laps in his last two visits, and won at the track in 2012.

Aric Almirola – By all accounts Almirola should have scored another strong finish in New Hampshire, but a failure in the right-front corner of his car sent him into the wall early. He had three consecutive top-15 finishes before last week's race, including two top-10s. His crash forced him out of the race and gave him a 43rd-place finish at a track he should have earned better. Even worse, last week's trouble may have ended his momentum. The good news for the team is that they scored a top-5 at Dover earlier this season, so getting over last week's trauma and continuing the momentum may happen fast.

Kyle Busch – Busch's massive regular-season effort to get into the Chase, including his win at New Hampshire earlier this season, was dented severely when he hit the outside wall hard after issues with the right-front corner of his car. The damage immediately sent him to the garage and out of contention. He was fourth in the standings heading into New Hampshire, but lost significant ground as a result of the accident and now sits in the relegation zone. Busch will have to have a strong outing at Dover, a track at which he hasn't had the greatest luck recently: two DNFs in his last three races there, despite leading 89 laps. Busch needs a top finish this week to advance.

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer suffered a point penalty after the Chicagoland race two weeks ago, and his finish in New Hampshire didn't do enough to overcome the hole his championship hopes are in. He's firmly at the bottom of the Chase standings and will be eliminated from title contention if he fails to win at Dover this week. A win is possible: Despite not having won there yet, Bowyer has finished in the top 10 at the circuit every year since 2010. His average Dover finish from 19 career starts is 11.7. This is make or break time for Bowyer. Another 26th-place effort like New Hampshire will certainly seal his fate.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Kevin Harvick – Harvick was the fastest car Sunday. The No. 4 was in a deep hole after tallying one of his worst finishes of the season in Chicago, but consistently came to the forefront of Sunday's race. In the closing laps the only question about his ability to win was whether he had enough fuel to get to the finish. He didn't and now will be going all out for victory at Dover to remain in the championship hunt. Harvick has never won at Dover but has a career average finish of 14.7 in 29 starts. He has also led more than 300 laps in the last three races there, so he can still get his back off the wall.