NASCAR Barometer: Harvick Defends Michigan Victories

Kevin Harvick successfully defended his fall Michigan win last season with an impressive showing last week at the D-shaped oval. The win was his second of the season and extends the momentum he has gained since finally visiting Victory Lane in the 2019 season at New Hampshire four weeks ago. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver was among the fastest cars throughout the weekend and used his front-row starting position to earn his third win at the track and his second in the last three trips to Brooklyn, Michigan. He was the fastest car in the final segment and no one was there to challenge him as he and his team had plenty of fuel to run at full force to the finish. He is one of the few drivers building momentum as the playoffs approach, while some of the other contenders falter.

This week, the series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway. The Busch brothers have won each of the last four races at the track with Kyle taking three of those victories. Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are the only other two active drivers to have won a Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series race at the track since 2016. Penske Racings' Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney dominated the race earlier this year before Kyle stole that victory, however. The playoffs are just three races away.

UPGRADE

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has become the dominant driver for the fall Michigan races and backed that up again with his second win of the season and his second consecutive fall Michigan race victory. The team stuttered through most of the season but has been scoring top-10 finishes since their first win of the season in New Hampshire. Things are looking better and better for this team as the playoffs approach, and this week's race at Bristol could be more of the same. Harvick has not finished worse than 13th in the last eight races at the track. His two prior wins at the track will make him one of the favorites heading into this weekend with just three races remaining in the regular season.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex drove from the rear to the lead and then stayed out front to win the first stage in Michigan. The stage victory gave him one valuable playoff point that could help him as the championship rounds loom. He then ran close to the front in the second stage but lost to Kyle Busch, only to work his way into the top five after handling plagued his progress in the final stage. It was a decent result for the No. 19 team, but not one that they would have wanted considering how much speed the car showed throughout the weekend. This week may not be one to bank on the No. 19 continuing its momentum, though. Truex has never won at Bristol and hasn't finished in the top 10 there since the spring of 2017.

Kyle Busch – Busch made an ideal restart to move from second to first over Truex to claim the second stage win in Michigan. It was the highlight of the afternoon for the season dominator, as he was only able to work his way to the sixth position for the finish. Busch has had a few rough weeks but continues to pull out top finishes despite his problems. That type of gritty racing will serve him well as he works to advance in the playoff rounds, but he and the team will feel more confident if they made a return to Victory Lane sooner rather than later. Busch is one of the best at Bristol Motor Speedway with an incredible eight career wins, including three of the last four.

Denny Hamlin – Despite not winning a stage or the race, Hamlin used Sunday's race at Michigan to extend his run of form that's making him one of the drivers to watch in the playoff battle. Hamlin's runner-up finish at Michigan was his fourth top-three finish in as many races, giving him one of the best records among drivers, with just three races remaining until the knockout rounds commence. Hamlin is the driver to watch right now, and his Bristol record is a good one, too. He has one career victory at the circuit and finished in the top 10 in four of the last six races at the track. He was fifth in the spring race and should be one of the more confident selections next week to etch another top-five finish.

DOWNGRADE

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer moved up the racetrack and collected the outside wall early in the final stage. That contact sent him to the pits with significant damage, and he ultimately ended up retiring the car. Bowyer continues to flirt with the cutoff line for making the championship playoffs and is running out of races to get the job done. He has never won at Bristol but has four top-10 finishes in his last five visits to the circuit. He continues his slow slide backward in momentum and is watching his playoff chances slide further off into the distance. Not making the championship battle would be a significant disappointment for this team, yet is a very real possibility given Bowyer's recent performances.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney entered this weekend as one of the drivers expected to have a great race, but when all was said and done, he could only muster a 24th-place finish. That is not the result the team was looking for, as he is the only Penske Racing driver without a win this season. The playoffs draw nearer each week, and he has had two finishes outside of the top 10 in the last five races. This isn't a team with momentum on its side, and while a playoff position may be relatively secure, he's losing the emphasis that would make him one of the drivers to watch as the season winds down. Blaney's best Bristol finish came earlier this season when he finished fourth. A top finish this week could turn the tables for him.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson got behind early in Sunday's race when he drifted high in the corner and made contact with the outside wall. That contact flattened a right-rear tire and sent him to the pits for unscheduled repair. This coming week could be a chance for Johnson to re-enter the championship positions, though. He has two Bristol wins and hasn't finished worse than 11th at the track in the last six races. He will have to overcome a dismal 34th-place finish from Michigan, however. This team is scrambling to change whatever they can in order to remain playoff contenders, but desperation is taking hold and pressure continues to mount. Three races remain for the perennial contender to find some magic to pull himself into the championship hunt.

Aric Almirola – Almirola collided with Daniel Hemric and Austin Dillon on the last lap of the second stage, causing significant damage to his car. The team did their best to make repairs to the machine, but there was little they could do to get the car back into shape. Almirola has only finished in the top 10 three times at Bristol, and the last two races were finishes of 31st and 37th. He has just one top-10 finish since his ninth-place run at Sonoma. The steam in this team's engine is running low after Michigan, and Bristol doesn't look like the venue at which Almirola will bounce back. Almirola is skating on thin ice but could make the playoffs with a few more top-15 finishes. That should be a possibility this week.

Kurt Busch – Busch was likely a top choice for many fantasy rosters this past week in Michigan. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has had plenty of success at Michigan, but the wrong fuel strategy saw him run out of gas on the final laps. That misstep by the team cost him several positions, which would have been detrimental to his playoff hopes had he not won earlier this year in Kentucky. In fact, since that win, Busch has landed just one top-10 finish, which isn't the type of run any team with playoff hopes would want as the regular season races to a close. Busch is one of the best at Bristol, though. He has six career wins at the track with first- and second-place finishes in the last two races there.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Ryan Preece – Preece hasn't had much to cheer about this season but showed his potential in Michigan. The rookie driver took his underfunded car and drove from a 29th starting position all the way to his third top-10 finish of the season. Preece is normally considered a top-30 option for fantasy players but seriously outperformed expectations in Michigan. The only other tracks at which he has scored top-10 finishes were superspeedways. His best finish outside of those two tracks was at Martinsville in March when he finished 16th. While this week at Bristol he may not be the wisest selection, he's showing that he has the talent to succeed at this level without proper funding. That could mean even more once he has a car that can run out front.