NASCAR Barometer: Harvick Breaks Victory Drought

Kevin Harvick took advantage of the final restart in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 to separate himself from the field and drive away to his first victory of the season, ending a 65-race stretch without a win. The victory made him the 15th different winner this season, pulling him into the playoff field at the expense of Martin Truex Jr., who fell below the playoff cutline with three regular-season races remaining to finalize the championship field. The win was relief for Harvick, who was bumped from the playoff spots himself just a few weeks ago, and the spotlight now focuses on Ryan Blaney and Truex who face a tight points battle to be part of the championship playoffs. Another new winner in any of the remaining races before the playoffs would upend that picture again, however.

A short-track, a road course and a superspeedway comprise the final three races of the regular season. Anything could happen on these configurations, but no team will want to face a trip to Daytona with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Up first is Richmond Raceway were Denny Hamlin drove to victory earlier this season. Joe Gibbs Racing cars have won six of the last eight races at the track, but Hamlin led just five laps in his win earlier this year. William Byron and Blaney were the two who dominated the rest, leading a combined 250 of 400 laps.

UPGRADE

Kevin Harvick – A late restart gave Harvick the chance to outrun the competition and stretch an unconquerable lead to capture an important maiden victory for the 2022 season. The victory ended a 65-race dry spell and propelled him back into the playoff standings with three regular-season races remaining. It was his sixth Michigan win and extended Ford's domination at the track. Quick work in the pits enabled him to be on track and on the lead lap when a timely caution appeared, giving him the chance to take control of the race. He went on to lead the final 38 laps with a comfortable gap back to the battle for second. His preparation for the playoffs begins this week at Richmond where he has three prior wins and finished second earlier this season.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace extended the best run of finishes of his career with a second-place finish Sunday. The weekend started with a monster lap that earned him his first series pole position, too. The runner-up finish was his best since the Daytona 500 and his fourth straight top-10, with three of those being top-fives. His dejected reaction following the race speaks volumes as to where he thinks he should be, though. This team has found their stride, putting Wallace in the best position of his career, for the first time in his career. It will take some experience to get the victories, but continued performances like the past few weeks show that wins are not far off. The biggest consideration fantasy players may need to keep in mind is how well the driver will weather the pressure he seems to be putting on himself.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin raced at the front early at Michigan, ultimately claiming the lead for the second time with a clean pass on Ross Chastain. He then went on to win the second stage. A pit penalty in the final segment put him deep in the field, but his car was quick enough throughout the race that he marched right back up to the front. Unfortunately, those small mistakes are the difference between winning and a third-place finish in this series, and Hamlin missed out on a chance to visit Victory Lane because of it. However, Sunday's top-five should help him build toward the playoffs. He has two wins this season and has had one of the fastest cars in the field recently. The team just needs to overcome its mistakes and close the deal with wins. He returns to Richmond this week where he already won this season.

Christopher Bell – Like other Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, Bell made the most of last week's extra early caution laps to maximize track position. That track position helped him capture the afternoon's first stage win, too. The team led a total of 31 laps and were positioning themselves to be in contention for the win. Unfortunately, Bell's charge to the front came up short after close racing ended with contact. Bell collided with Chastain as the pair jockeyed for position on the front straight, leaving Bell with heavy right-front damage that took him out of the race, relegating him to a 26th-place finish. Like his teammates, the No. 20 machine's speed is competitive, but mistakes have to be eliminated to fuel a long championship run. Bell has three top-10s and an average finish of seventh from his four Richmond starts.

Ty Gibbs – In just three races Gibbs has made his case for a spot in the Cup Series. He approached stepping in for injured Kurt Busch in a calm and mature manner, not overdriving to impress. That approach is exactly what we saw from him as he stepped up to the Xfinity Series last season, and it is paying off with wins in that series and top finishes in the Cup Series. He drove the No. 45 machine to to the 10th spot after starting 11th, leading two laps in doing so. The teenager clearly has the talent to go along with the equipment he is given, and it may be sooner rather than later we see him make the step up to NASCAR's top series. Fantasy players will have to wait and see if Busch returns at Richmond, but can feel confident selecting Gibbs if he does not.

DOWNGRADE

Kyle Busch – Busch is dealing with his share of bad luck this season, and Sunday's Michigan race dished him some more. Busch was an innocent bystander on the outside lane early in the race as a car lost control and triggered a multi-car crash that left Busch pinned against the wall. His car suffered enough damage to take him completely out of the race and gave him his second finish worse than 30th in the last five races. Busch still only has one win so far this season, and it seems like he is struggling to build consistency and momentum as the playoffs approach. The good news for him is that speed has rarely been an issue, though. A trip to Richmond may be just what he needs with six track victories and an amazing 18 top-fives and 26 top-10s from 33 career starts.

Austin Cindric – On paper, Sunday's trip to Michigan should have been a good one for Cindric. He was in a Team Penske Ford that often rises to the occasion at an important track for the team. However, the afternoon came to a premature end when he was caught in a crash just after the competition caution. A car spinning ahead bottled up the field, and Cindric was tagged from behind, sending him head-first into the outside wall and abruptly out of the race. Focus for this team must now be completely on the playoffs. Cindric's Daytona 500 win still has him in position to race for the championship, and he only has three races to rebuild his momentum. Up first is Richmond where he has two series starts and a best finish of 20th.

Daniel Suarez – Just as the early-season race at Fontana enabled Suarez to make a run at a possible win, Sunday's trip to Michigan did the same. Suarez started the day 15th, but it didn't take long for him to make his impression felt. He finished the second stage in second place and got out front to lead a total of 33 laps in the final stage. After struggling with their cars early in the weekend Trackhouse Racing showed they can make adjustments to get their drivers to the front in the race, which is an important confidence builder for them with the playoffs approaching. Unfortunately for Suarez, a blown tire left him unable to close out the race at the front, leaving him a lap down in 25th. The No. 99 team has three races left to hone its playoff approach and put issues like last week's in the rearview mirror.

Ross Chastain – Chastain's run of poor race finishes extended another week in Michigan. His Trackhouse Racing team was frustrated following a poor showing in qualifying, but Chastain remained confident that the adjustments they planned for the car would enable them to move through the field in the race. He did just that, too. In all he led 29 laps and grabbed stage points in the first segment despite starting 22nd. As with most other weeks, Chastain raced his way into contention for a possible victory. Contact while racing Christopher Bell late in the race ended his chances, though. The front-end damage suffered sent him to the pits for repairs, leaving him a lap down at the finish in the 24th position. Speed is not in question for this squad, though. If the mistakes can be avoided, Chastain should continue to compete for wins.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Ryan Blaney – A fifth-place finish for Blaney Sunday at Michigan wouldn't usually rate as a surprise for Blaney, but there was more to the story than just another top-five. First, the weekend started with Blaney on the backfoot in qualifying. He started the race just 24th. However, the points awarded for that finish are now even more important with the season producing 15 different winners. Importantly, Blaney finished ahead of playoff rival Truex as the pair now must battle for the only remaining playoff position available to a nonwinner. Incredibly, Blaney sits second in points and could still miss the playoffs if the season produces another new winner. He holds a precious 19-point lead over Truex with just three races remaining. This battle will be the one to watch in the next few weeks.