NASCAR Barometer: Elliott Wins Again on Concrete

Chase Elliott won his second race of the season late Sunday night at Nashville Superspeedway. The win was his second win of the season and second on concrete. The Hendrick Motorsports driver endured multiple weather delays and one late restart to drive away from Kurt Busch in the final four-lap shootout to win. The No. 9 was one of just a few cars capable of competing with the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, which dominated much of the distance, and the team's final strategy call made the difference in delivering the checkered flag. The caution that set up the final four-lap run to the finish saw Elliott and a number of competitors stay on track, opting for track position, while the Gibbs contenders pitted for fresh tires. Elliott got the push he needed, while much of the rest of the field jumbled together in traffic and stalled the forward progress of those hoping fresh tires would make the difference. Elliott used that advantage to sail home to the win.

The NASCAR Cup Series goes road racing for the third time this season next week at Road America. The track returned to the calendar last season, and it was Elliott who flexed his road-course muscle and drove to Victory Lane. This year's two road course events have produced two first-time winners, though. Fantasy players should consider whether that trend will continue again this coming week as the regular season marches toward its conclusion.

UPGRADE

Chase Elliott – Elliott led the final 39 laps at the Ally 400 to take his second victory of the season after remaining on track to survive a final four-lap run under green to the checkered flag. The race may not have turned out well for him and the team after he pitted twice for a loose wheel earlier in the running, which dropped him out of the top 20. He and the team persevered and worked their way back to top to beat Kurt Busch in a dash to the finish. It was Elliott's 15th career win and marks a return to Victory Lane for Hendrick Motorsports after a slump for the organization heading into the prior week's break. Up next is a road course race where Elliott can continue to feel confident. He won the series return to that track last season despite starting the race 34th.

Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Truex and Denny Hamlin dominated the early miles of Sunday's return to Nashville Superspeedway. Truex led 82 laps in total and beat Hamlin to the stage victory in both of the race's opening segments. The power Sunday afternoon was a good sign from Truex who announced earlier in the week that he would be back with the team for another season in 2023. Unfortunately, the call to pit for fresh tires under the final caution did more harm than good, and left Truex with a finish that was not representative of his true pace throughout the race. Truex has excellent road course chops, and started and finished ninth in last year's visit to Road America.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin qualified on pole and went on to lead the most laps in Sunday's race. The team's Toyota strength was on full display as he and teammate Truex went on to finish first and second in both stages. As the laps ticked down, Hamlin opted for fresh tires over track position and made the final restart deeper in the order than he would have like and struggled to make use of those fresh tires to move back to the front. However, of the cars that pitted he was the only one who was able to progress further up the order. Hamlin is full of momentum recently and is not a driver to ignore on road courses either. He nearly won at Indianapolis last season and was competitive at Road America with a fifth-place finish, too.

Ryan Blaney – While the Gibbs Toyotas dominated much of Sunday's race the one Ford that was able to contend with them was Blaney. The Team Penske driver was the fastest Ford for much of the race and took stage points in both segments on his way to an impressive third-place finish, overcoming a spin en route. Despite some competitive showings this season, Blaney remains winless and in the playoff positions via points. His third-place finish Sunday was his fourth finish of sixth or better including his win in the All-Star Race, which was the turning point for him. In the five races leading into his All-Star win, he had just one top-10 but now heads to Road America with a return to form firmly in hand. Blaney finished 20th at Road America last season but has top-10 finishes on both road courses so far this season.

Kyle Larson – Sunday's showing at Nashville could be an indicator that Larson is returning to the highly competitive form that fantasy players have come to expect. The defending champion started the race quickly and spent the entire race running inside the top 10, taking stage points in both opening segments. The race was particularly impressive considering his crew chief and some crew members remain suspended due to a loose wheel violation. The team was able to adapt despite being shorthanded and propelled the No. 5 to a fourth-place finish, which was Larson's first top-five since before the All-Star Race. The goal for this team in the remaining regular-season races is to regain their winning form, and it wouldn't be a shock if that happened this coming week in another road course outing.

DOWNGRADE

William Byron – Byron's race at Nashville was a brief one. The Hendrick driver complained of an issue under the first red flag of the race. He said he was forced to hold the car on the straights. The team changed tires as the race resumed, but the problem persisted, and Byron nearly lost control and crashed as the field resumed racing. Afterward he said the steering felt off as he was getting back into the car after the red flag and that the team did all they could do to keep him in the battle. The extensive work did put the No. 24 back on track but more than 30 laps behind. Byron started on pole at Road America last season, led 15 laps, and won the first stage before over-driving a turn late and slipping back to the 33rd finishing position.

Alex Bowman – Bowman's race ended as the field returned to green-flag action following the first stoppage for lightning. The Hendrick driver suffered contact with Corey Lajoie, which sent the No. 48 machine spinning into the outside wall. The heavy contact caused significant damage to the car. The team attempted to make repairs on pit road, but the damage was too severe, and they ultimately fell afoul of the damaged vehicle policy and retired from the race. Bowman's incident occurred the same lap teammate Byron had his trouble, which left two Hendrick drivers out of the running before even 50 laps were complete. The team will continue working to overcome their struggles next week at Road America where Bowman qualified 10th but finished 22nd.

Chris Buescher – Buescher entered the week off filled with confidence after an impressive second-place finish the week before at Sonoma. That race was further evidence that RFK Racing has the potential to compete at the front and win races. That confidence showed at Nashville, too. Buescher qualified 15th but worked his way into the top 10 in the final stage. All was going well for that top-10 until he lost a rear wheel following what should have been his final stop of the night. Luckily, he avoiding significant damage but lost three laps with the issue and finished 30th. Road America could be a chance for Buescher to repeat his Sonoma success if he can overcome the suspensions that will come from the lost wheel. He finished 18th in last year's race at the track but brings the experience of a runner-up finish just a few weeks ago into this week's event.

Brad Keselowski – Like teammate Buescher, Keselowski appeared to be in good position for a top-10 finish late in Sunday's race. He was bottled up on the restart and ended up making contact with Cole Custer and slid into the outside wall. The contact caused a tire rub that slowed Keselowski off the pace and sent him to pit road, ultimately finishing two laps behind. In the cruel twist he lost the top-10 finish that would have been just his third of the year. A road course visit should give the driver/owner an opportunity to punch a little above his weight, though. He finished 10th at Sonoma and 14th at Austin earlier this season. He was 13th at Road America last year and really only has wins to shoot for at this point in the season.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Kyle Busch – Busch did not lack speed Sunday at Nashville, but surprisingly the team was unable to capitalize on it. The No. 18 was forced to start the race from the rear due to an unapproved adjustment after spinning and crashing his car earlier in the weekend. He made quick work of the field and worked his way right up to the top 15 before the first red flag. His march forward continued when racing resumed, and he was ninth for the first stage finish. He continued to race at the front in the second stage, finishing third behind his teammates in that segment, too. However, he too opted to pit under the final caution and was unable to leverage the fresh rubber to move back into contention. Busch will be one to watch this week after driving to third from the 40th starting position at Road America last year, though.