NASCAR Barometer: Denny Hamlin Scores Second Season Victory

Three restarts in the final 20 laps of Sunday's HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway gave Denny Hamlin the opening he needed to force his way to the lead to win his second race of the 2023 season. Hamlin took the lead from Kyle Larson on the penultimate restart with a move Larson took exception to. Larson made contact with the outside wall and slid backward from being in contention for the win to narrowly hanging on to a top-20 finish. On the race's final restart, Denny Hamlin retained control as Ryan Preece spun coming to the white flag. NASCAR held the caution to give the No. 41 a chance to get restarted, and Hamlin took the white flag before caution returned to the raceway, ending the running with the No. 11 in front to capture his first win since Kansas. Sunday's win made Hamlin the fifth driver to win multiple races this season, which leaves five playoff positions available for drivers to qualify for the championship battle on points alone. 

The fight to be one of the 16 championship contenders carries on this coming weekend at Richmond Raceway. Larson won there last April when Hendrick Motorsports was the team to beat. Competition is a bit tighter this time around, and it is one of just five races remaining for drivers to win their way into the playoff field. Michael McDowell retained his 16th-place spot in the standings through the Pocono race weekend and heads to Richmond with a 17-point lead over AJ Allmendinger, the first driver on the outside looking in. Five races mean five chances for drivers to stake their claim on a playoff opportunity, and Richmond's short oval is poised to create fireworks.

UPGRADE

Denny Hamlin -  Hamlin started eighth and ran inside the top five through the first two stages of Sunday's HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono. In the final miles with multiple restarts he began to smell victory, though. He battled with both Kyle Larson and teammate Martin Truex Jr. in the final laps, eventually forcing his way into the lead on the final restart of the race. The race's final caution came on the final lap and gave him his second victory of the season. Hamlin now sits third in total points behind William Byron and Truex with the playoffs rapidly approaching. Honing their craft ahead of the playoffs is exactly what this team needs to be doing to be at their best when the races matter the most. This week's trip to Richmond should help them, too. Hamlin is a four-time winner at the track. He led 71 laps there in April but only finished 20th.

Kyle Larson - Everything was coming together for Larson through the Pocono race weekend, but multiple incidents on track stunted what might have been. The Hendrick Motorsports driver qualified third and was racing toward the front of the field when a spin sent him sliding into the outside wall. Luckily for him, there was little damage to his car and he was able to regain the ground lost. When a late caution in the second stage appeared just as Larson was about to pit the team called for him to stay on track and collect the stage victory. That move then enabled him to continue his march back to the front in the final stage. Before late contact with Denny Hamlin forced him out of contention, Larson was on his way to winning. He led 24 laps, but the last contact dropped him back to 20th in the final few miles. Larson has two wins this season and one of those was from Richmond, where he returns this week to put the Pocono outcome in the rearview mirror.

Joey Logano - Sunday's race didn't end as planned for Logano, but it was another indication of his team's potential as the playoff approach. The Ford-powered cars have had a recent run of good form, racing at the front of the pack and getting out from the shadow of the Chevrolet teams that have eclipsed them much of the season. Logano qualified sixth and worked his way into the lead to win Sunday's first stage. A collision early in the second stage prematurely ended his afternoon, though. Logano was squeezed in the middle and spun into the outside wall. The long tow back to pit road on four flat tires caused significant damage and the team wasn't able to repair it before the damaged vehicle policy clock expired, and Logano finished the day 35th. The No. 22 team is showing glimpses of the speed they will have in the playoff battle. They now just need to overcome in-race obstacles to convert that speed into race finishes.

Kevin Harvick - Harvick continued to pad his points tally with another admirable race at Pocono, easing his playoff pressure despite not capturing an elusive race victory. The former series champion is one of just eight drivers with more than 600 points so far this season. His fourth-place finish at Pocono was his sixth top-five and ninth top-10 of the season. With five spots left in the playoffs and five regular-season races remaining, it is just a matter of time before Harvick will clinch one of the positions even without visiting Victory Lane. His top-five from Sunday was his second in as many weeks, though. It would not be a surprise to see this contender get that victory before the playoffs arrive if he continues his current trajectory. This week's trip to Richmond could offer a good opportunity for him to do it, too. He is a four-time winner at the track and finished fifth in April's race. 

Ty Gibbs - Gibbs gave his playoff hopes a much needed boost with a fifth-place finish at Pocono. After two consecutive races outside of the top 20, Gibbs grabbed his first top-five and ninth top-10 finish of the season. He led four laps and avoided the pitfalls that could have ruined the afternoon. With five regular-season races remaining, Gibbs holds down 19th in the standings with a 28-point gap left to overcome to return to the top 16. To be fighting for a playoff spot, without a win, in his first full-time season in the series should be considered a success. The coming weekend's trip to Richmond could be another boost for him, too. This weekend's race will be his third at the track in this season, and he finished ninth there in the spring. He won from pole at the track in the Xfinity Series last season, too. This weekend presents an opportunity not just for Gibbs to reduce the gap in points, but it could be one where he challenges for his first series win, too.

DOWNGRADE

Daniel Suarez - A crash at the start of the second stage ended Suarez's race at Pocono and widened the gap he must overcome in order to be part of this season's playoff field. Sunday's finish was the third finish outside of the top 15 for him from the last five races. He now has just five races to overcome a 23-point point deficit or win to be part of this year's championship battle. As the pressure increases it appears as though Suarez and team are faltering. Sunday's visit to Pocono earned them just one point, which makes the aim for the remaining regular-season races more like top-10 finishes versus top-15s just a few weeks ago. That increased need won't make things easier for them, and the gambles they take may become increasingly risky. Richmond is not likely to be a quick turnaround for them either. Suarez finished 23rd there in April and hasn't finished in the top 10 at the track since 2019.

Austin Dillon - Much of the 2023 season has been one to forget for Dillon, and last week's trip to Pocono added more pain to the misery. Multiple incidents during the race ruined Dillon's chances. Contact with Tyler Reddick was the final blow to Dillon's effort when the paid collided and Dillon spun hard into the outside wall. The damage was too much for Dillon to continue, and he made his feelings known by throwing his helmet at the No. 45 machine when it circled back behind the safety car. Sunday's finish was Dillon's third outside of the top 20 from the last five races. He sits 30th in points with a 160-point gap to the playoff positions. Dillon needs a victory in the final five regular-season races in order to be part of this year's playoff contingent. That feat isn't out of the question for the No. 3 team, but it would be a surprise if it came at Richmond. Dillon has just one top-five at the track and finished 25th there earlier this season.

Kyle Busch - Busch's double-duty weekend at Pocono started on the right foot when he picked up the 100th win for Kyle Busch Motorsports in the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series. That success didn't carry over into the Cup Series, though. Busch's qualifying effort was not the best, and he started the race 25th. Things didn't get much better in the race as he spent the afternoon mired in traffic and lacking the adjustments to make the car work more toward his liking. The result was another disappointing finish outside the top 20 for the second race in a row. There is still time for the team to pull things together and get past the current rough patch. They might be at a disadvantage being a new pairing this season, though. Busch has two wins that are securing his playoff spot. More wins could be on the way, but the off weeks are hurting. A test of their ability to overcome is this week at Richmond where Busch should be at the front.

Chase Elliott - A top-10 finish on Sunday during any other season would not be reason for concern for former champions Chase Elliott. However, Elliott is not in the playoff positions as a result of missing multiple races earlier in the season through injury. He spun in qualifying Saturday and was forced to start at the back of the field, making his task more difficult than necessary. His car was a quick one, though. He drove through the field and recovered for the 10th-place finishing spot. Had he not suffered the qualifying issue you have to wonder what might have been, though. Elliott has just a handful of races remaining to get into this year's championship fight. He is 56 points out of the playoff positions. A win is the straightest path to the top 16, but the route via points isn't gone yet either. Richmond hasn't historically been one of Elliott's better tracks, but he has improved there recently. He finished fifth at the circuit in April, and may begin taking more risks.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Harrison Burton - There hasn't been much for Burton to celebrate this season, but Sunday at Pocono was one of those runs that will have him feeling like he is on the right path. Burton qualified a typical 26th for the race, but he took advantage of the mistakes of others throughout the afternoon to move forward to finish eighth. It was his second top-10 finish of the season and his first since Darlington in May. The team has been working to consistently finish inside the top 20, and they've made some progress on that goal from the prior season. However, Burton sits just inside the top 30 in points and 25 points behind Erik Jones in 28th. Races like Sunday's will help show them what they need to do each week in order to continue climbing the curve. Burton has two top-20 finishes from three Richmond starts, and another this week would be a good return.