This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Christopher Bell came from behind to get to the front and manage a lead straight to Victory Lane in Sunday's 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. While others looked destined to win, it was Bell who found the adjustments he needed to mount a challenge in the final miles and grab his spot alongside Kyle Larson as the first two drivers confirmed to have a shot at the NASCAR Cup Series championship in two weeks at Phoenix. The win was Bell's second of the season, but it was also his second top-two finish of the current round of eliminations. That is exactly the kind of momentum a team wants with the championship race just around the corner. He now joins Larson in focusing on the coming week's race at Martinsville as an opportunity to dial in the package for Phoenix.
The final two drivers will be confirmed for the championship finale this week in a Martinsville short-track shootout. Kyle Larson won at the track earlier this season, but the six remaining championship contenders not already through to the finale will be hoping they are the one to make the turn into Victory Lane this time. Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Chris Buescher will have to come from behind to do so, though. William Byron and Ryan Blaney hold the two remaining championship positions on points and will be working to defend their positions from those behind. It is the last chance for those drivers to
Christopher Bell came from behind to get to the front and manage a lead straight to Victory Lane in Sunday's 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. While others looked destined to win, it was Bell who found the adjustments he needed to mount a challenge in the final miles and grab his spot alongside Kyle Larson as the first two drivers confirmed to have a shot at the NASCAR Cup Series championship in two weeks at Phoenix. The win was Bell's second of the season, but it was also his second top-two finish of the current round of eliminations. That is exactly the kind of momentum a team wants with the championship race just around the corner. He now joins Larson in focusing on the coming week's race at Martinsville as an opportunity to dial in the package for Phoenix.
The final two drivers will be confirmed for the championship finale this week in a Martinsville short-track shootout. Kyle Larson won at the track earlier this season, but the six remaining championship contenders not already through to the finale will be hoping they are the one to make the turn into Victory Lane this time. Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Chris Buescher will have to come from behind to do so, though. William Byron and Ryan Blaney hold the two remaining championship positions on points and will be working to defend their positions from those behind. It is the last chance for those drivers to take their championship hopes all the way to the finish line.
UPGRADE
Christopher Bell - Bell came up a lap short for the win at Las Vegas, but he got the job done with a late turnaround at Homestead. The playoff contender started 13th and only added a ninth-place stage finish before the race turned around for him. Despite losing places on the final pit stop, Bell's team found the adjustments he needed to get to the front. Once the No. 20 machine found clear air, he pulled away from the competition, too. Bell led the final 16 laps as he managed the gap back to second place, preserving his tires should he need to defend the lead late. With Sunday's win, Bell has consecutive top-two finishes and the win that makes him one of the four drivers that will race for the series championship at Phoenix. Bell and the team now have the coming race at Martinsville to perfect their package for a shot at a title.
Kyle Larson - Larson started Sunday's race at Homestead just as he finished the race the week prior, by running toward the front and capturing the lead. He went on to win the first stage, extending his run of superlative form as the championship decider approaches. That strength carried into the second stage until his tires gave up just before that segment's conclusion. His afternoon came to an end early while entering pit road behind Ryan Blaney, though. The No. 5 was forced to take evasive action as Blaney slowed ahead of him, and Larson struck the sand barrels at the end of the pit road wall. With that, the fastest car was out of the race, but with a win the week prior, Larson is still assured of a place in the finale. Larson's first Martinsville series win came earlier this season when he led 30 laps despite starting 19th.
Ryan Blaney - One week after a being disqualified and then reinstated at Las Vegas, Blaney was back and in business at Homestead. His Team Penske Ford was quick throughout the weekend at Miami, and his moment to take the helm came when Larson's tires gave away late in the second stage. Blaney, who had been running inside the top five all afternoon until then, seized the opportunity and made the pass to take the stage win and the important playoff point along with it. After surviving a pit road incident with Larson, the No. 12 was left to battle Bell for the win, but just like Bell ran out of laps to pass Larson for the win at Las Vegas, Blaney ran out of laps as he chased Bell to the checkered flag. However, his runner-up finish pushed Blaney into the top four in the playoff standings with one more race at Martinsville left to determine the last two championship spots for Phoenix.
William Byron - The winningest driver this season continues to show championship winning form as the last two races of the season approach. Byron may not be locked into the championship finale yet, but his consistent top finishes have put him in a confident position with one race remaining in the round. Byron must now focus on maintaining his 30-point advantage, or winning a seventh race of the season, at Martinsville. His run of top-10 finishes now stands a six with one more race remaining before the championship decider. His best Martinsville finish came in the spring last year when he led 212 laps from the fifth starting position to win. He finished 23rd there earlier this season after a mechanical issue caused a severe vibration late in the running. He started that day inside the top 10 and among the fastest cars in practice, though. Byron will be aiming to wrap up his spot at Phoenix with early stage points Sunday at Martinsville.
Tyler Reddick - Reddick quietly put himself in position to be one of the final four championship contenders with a third-place finish at Homestead. The 23XI Racing driver heads to Martinsville just 10 points behind the championship positions and poised to spring a small surprise by making himself one of the championship contenders. Sunday's finish was his 10th top-five of the season and his third top-10 in as many races. Stage points will be key for him this coming week, and Reddick showed Sunday that he can do it with points in both stages at Homestead on the way to his third-place finish. He has just one top-10 finish at Martinsville from seven series tries, but has shown glimpses of potential at the track with a top-10 start earlier this season. Reddick could be your sleeper choice to make the championship finale with another top-tier run at Martinsville.
DOWNGRADE
Ross Chastain - In the final stage, Chastain was caught a lap down and took the wave around to get back on the lead lap. Being back in traffic, he was squeezed to the top and suffered damage in the resulting contact. The team was unable to make repairs and Chastain's afternoon came to an end. It was a disappointing end to an already disappointing afternoon. Along with three top-10 finishes, the team now has two finishes of 30th or worse in the last five races, and that is the type of inconsistency that has stunted their ability to repeat the highs they delivered last year. Chastain won't be in position to repeat his banzai move from last season's Martinsville race this weekend, but he is still racing to find improvements for next year. He has two Martinsville top-fives from nine series starts. Both of those top finishes came last season.
Denny Hamlin - With Larson out of the picture, a late restart put Hamlin in position to race Blaney for the Homestead victory and a spot in the championship race. Unfortunately, as the pair battled, they allowed multiple cars to get by, leaving them to battle one another for third. As that fight raged on, something broke on Hamlin's car and the No. 11 went straight into the outside wall in Turn 1 with heavy contact taking him out of the race. As a result, Hamlin will enter the final chance to advance to the season finale outside of the top four and 17 points behind the final championship slot. Hamlin, once again, finds himself facing a playoff cut race at Martinsville needing to make something happen to find his way into the championship finale. Hamlin is a five time winner at the track, though. Hamlin also led 239 laps in the last two starts at the track with two top-five finishes.
Martin Truex Jr. - Sunday's race at Homestead was a struggle for Truex. While he qualified on pole, the race was nothing but frustration. The car's handling was a challenge from the start and Truex found himself floundering to turn things around and get back to the front. Late in the final stage, the misery compounded with an engine issue that sent him to pit road and out of the race completely. The stage points he collected leave him sixth in the standings with Martinsville standing between him and one of the top four positions in the standings. Things will have to go well for Truex in the coming race to be one of the championship combatants, but hope is not lost considering how good Truex has been at short tracks in recent years. Truex has three career wins at Martinsville, and he also finished third there earlier this season. He'll need a race like that to remain in the championship fight.
Chris Buescher - A 21st-place finish at Homestead was a big underperformance from Buescher. While his 2023 season has been a good one, and he remains in championship contention, this final round of the playoffs hasn't been the best. Homestead's rough surface and 1.5-mile format should have been an opportunity for him to salvage points and a potential spot in the final four. However, Buescher struggled from the start, missed out on stage points, and lost ground in the playoff battle. He now faces a 37-point deficit to the championship positions with just one race remaining, and nothing less than a victory will do. A victory will be tough, too. At Martinsville, Buescher has just one career top-10 finish, which came in 2021. He has yet to lead a lap at the track and finished 14th earlier this season. Buescher has delivered some surprises this season, though. He'll need his biggest yet this week, though.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
AJ Allmendinger - Allmendinger fulfilled the belief of Kaulig Racing by winning two races ago at Charlotte, and he reinforced their belief with his finish at Homestead. The afternoon started as many other oval races this season have started with Allmendinger deep in the field and seemingly destined to fight for a top-20 finish. That all turned around in the final stage when Allmendinger took advantage of the problems of other drivers, as well as restarts, to work his way into the top five to score his fourth top-five finish of the season. All of those top finishes have come in the second half of the season, which demonstrates his progress in this full-time return to the Cup Series. Things are starting to gel for he and the team, and two more races are an opportunity for Allmendinger to make his case to remain Kaulig's full-time Cup Series choice.
