NASCAR Barometer: Byron Wins at Homestead

William Byron won his second NASCAR Cup Series race in Sunday's Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead Miami Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports driver started 31st and drove from the rear to lead 102 of 267 laps, winning the second stage on his way to a comfortable win. The No. 24 team now will have a spot in the championship playoffs and can get started on extensive preparations for a run at the 2021 title. His Hendrick teammate Kyle Larson also finished in the top five, and Chevrolet took three of the top four spots. The Penske Racing and Roush Fenway Racing Ford drivers started the day at the front early in the distance, but Kevin Harvick was the only Ford to finish the race in the top five. 

This week the series will venture West to visit Las Vegas Motor Speedway, another 1.5-mile oval. Fantasy players hoping to have a better view of where drivers stand are starting to see that picture become clearer. Denny Hamlin and Harvick sit atop the points, but there are some early surprises as well. Aside from the obvious early race winners, drivers like Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, Cole Custer and Bubba Wallace currently are in playoff positions three races into the 2021 season. There is still a long time to go in the season, but 2021 already shaping up to be very competitive.

UPGRADE

William Byron – Hendrick Motorsports and Byron made their mark early by winning in impressive fashion at Homestead Miami Speedway. Byron won the second stage Sunday in Homestead when he snuck underneath Hamlin, who was intent on blocking teammate Martin Truex Jr. in the final turn. The stage win was Byron's fifth and capped off a strong performance in the first segments of Sunday's race. He then went on to stay on top of the changing track conditions and stretch a comfortable lead to his second career victory. Byron has one top-10 Las Vegas finish from six career tries, and now can focus on making improvements and building momentum for a deep run into the championship playoffs.

Chris Buescher – Roush Fenway Racing appears to have taken a big step forward this past winter, and Buescher put that improvement to good use with a stage win Sunday in Miami. Both he and teammate Ryan Newman were among the fastest in the field early in Sunday's race, and Buescher stayed at the front through the second stage. He lost ground in the final segmet and came home 19th, but Buescher has done enough so far this season to earn a spot in the early playoff standings. Last season the former Pocono winner snagged his first Las Vegas top-10 finish, leading 16 laps, and he appears to have a more competitive package this season. Buescher and Newman could be early surprises on whom fantasy players should keep an eye.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex didn't have the car that could chase down Byron for the win, but he outpaced his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates and led 37 laps in a third-place finish. Truex was the only Toyota to finish in the top five and split the top three finishing Chevrolet drivers. That was his first top-10 finish of the season and moves him to ninth in points. Homestead was a good result for the team after two weeks of challenges, and Truex could be positioned for a string of top results with those challenges behind him. He has two Las Vegas victories and finished fourth there last fall. Prior to his 20th-place finish there in the spring, he had five consecutive top-10s at the track.

Kurt Busch – Busch picked up stage points in both opening stages Sunday. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver raced inside the top 10 throughout the afternoon. Unfortunately, a loose wheel caused a vibration late in the final stage, which forced Busch into an unscheduled stop. That mistake put him a lap down to the leaders without many laps to stage a recovery. However, he used that pace to work his way back onto the lead lap and continue driving to a top-10 finish. With two top-10 finishes from the first three races Busch now sits eighth in the championship standings. He won at Las Vegas, his hometown track, last fall with 29 laps led, too. With three top-fives and six top-10s from 22 career tries at the track, he is one to watch.

Ryan Newman – Could 2021 be the season Newman returns to Victory Lane? His performance Sunday at Homestead puts him in striking distance if he and the team are able to replicate that speed elsewhere on the schedule. He and teammate Buescher were among the fastest cars on track throughout much of Sunday's race, but just didn't have the adjustments in the final fuel runs to stay out front and mount a challenge on Byron. Still, Newman fared well and came home with a seventh-place finish. He only scored two top-10s last season, but both came on superspeedways. The team's pace this past Sunday on a 1.5-mile oval could signal that speed is more consistent this season. He finished 10th and 15th in his last two Las Vegas starts. 

DOWNGRADE

Ryan Blaney – Blaney didn't appear to have the early speed of his teammates Sunday afternoon, but he was running a decent race and moving forward. That steady progress came to an end while he raced Aric Almirola and the two collided. Almirola moved up the track, leaving Blaney with nowhere to go and significant left-front damage from the ensuing contact. Blaney returned to track after making repairs, but he was just barely inside the top 30 and only finished 29th. This week is another chance, however. Blaney has six top-10 finishes from nine Las Vegas starts. He finished seventh there last fall and was 11th in the spring.

Aric Almirola – Almirola showed some early speed Sunday at Homestead,  but he and the team weren't able to keep up with the changing track. As the sun set and the track surface cooled down, Almirola wasn't able to keep up with it and began falling through the field. Late in the final stage he slid up the track and into an oncoming Blaney. Almirola's right-rear fender collected Blaney's front end, which turned Almirola even harder into the outside wall, causing heavy right-side damage. The contact brought out the caution and sent the No. 10 to pit road for repairs, but their night was effectively already over. This week at Las Vegas might be a better gauge of where Almirola stands. In 15 starts, he has just three top-10 finishes at the track.

Joey Logano – The day started off brightly for Logano and Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski. The pair had the early pace and led many of the early miles. As the race wore on, the surface cooled and changed the handling of a number of cars, but it went the wrong direction for Logano. The evolution left Logano out to dry and he slipped deeper in the field as the laps wore on. Ultimately, he finished 25th and has just one top-10 finish from the first three races of the season. Penske Fords seem to be competitive, but the team will have to make the right calls throughout race distances to capitalize. Logano's two prior Las Vegas victories should put them in good position to do that this week. He is the defending winner of this race and has led laps in his last 10 Las Vegas visits.

Denny Hamlin – Sunday's visit to Homestead should have been much better for Hamlin. Losing his pole position and starting at the rear for making an unapproved adjustment was a huge penalty. Grip and track position are important at 1.5-mile ovals, and Hamlin simply wasn't able to maximize either after starting at the back. He missed out on stage points from the first segment after being unable to move forward quickly enough, then missed out what might have been a stage win when teammate Truex attempted to block him coming off of the final turn in the second. That incident handed Byron the lead, which he barely let go of all the way to the finish. Hamlin missed the top 10 at the finish, which would have been his third in as many races. Sunday was a missed opportunity.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Michael McDowell – McDowell carried his early-season momentum right through Sunday's Dixie Vodka 400. He won his first career race in the Daytona 500, finished eighth at the road course two weeks ago and then followed through with a sixth-place finish at Homestead. His win puts him into the playoffs, but the two races following that may indicate he is capable of even more. A lot can change over the rest of the year, but McDowell and Front Row Motorsports are already overachieving. Las Vegas should be a good gauge of how much this team has in it. McDowell's best finish at the track was 18th in 2017. That was his only top-20 finish there, and anything better than that would would be icing on the cake.