This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Martinsville Speedway hosted the Xfinity 500 Sunday, the race that would decide which three remaining playoff drivers would line up alongside Kyle Larson to race for the season championship at Phoenix. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Larson and Chase Elliott dominated the first half of the race, but each suffered mistakes in the final segment, setting set up a tense scramble at the front of the field among the championship contenders in the final laps as drivers jockeyed for an advantage. Denny Hamlin appeared to have the race in hand, but several late restarts kept others in touch. That competition proved to be too much, as close racing with Alex Bowman in the final laps sent Hamlin spinning out of the lead, putting Bowman in the driver's seat to navigate one final restart to grab his fourth win of the season. Kyle Busch finished second, which wasn't enough to keep his championship hopes alive, and he joined the three Team Penske teammates in being eliminated from the championship fight.
Larson, Elliott, Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. left Martinsville as the final four playoff drivers left standing as the 2021 championship is set to be decided this week. Elliott and Truex each have one title on their resumes, while a win Sunday at Phoenix would be the first for Larson or Hamlin. Truex won at the track earlier this year, though the Hendrick cars have closed the gap on these types of tracks in the second half of the year. The 2021 NASCAR
Martinsville Speedway hosted the Xfinity 500 Sunday, the race that would decide which three remaining playoff drivers would line up alongside Kyle Larson to race for the season championship at Phoenix. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Larson and Chase Elliott dominated the first half of the race, but each suffered mistakes in the final segment, setting set up a tense scramble at the front of the field among the championship contenders in the final laps as drivers jockeyed for an advantage. Denny Hamlin appeared to have the race in hand, but several late restarts kept others in touch. That competition proved to be too much, as close racing with Alex Bowman in the final laps sent Hamlin spinning out of the lead, putting Bowman in the driver's seat to navigate one final restart to grab his fourth win of the season. Kyle Busch finished second, which wasn't enough to keep his championship hopes alive, and he joined the three Team Penske teammates in being eliminated from the championship fight.
Larson, Elliott, Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. left Martinsville as the final four playoff drivers left standing as the 2021 championship is set to be decided this week. Elliott and Truex each have one title on their resumes, while a win Sunday at Phoenix would be the first for Larson or Hamlin. Truex won at the track earlier this year, though the Hendrick cars have closed the gap on these types of tracks in the second half of the year. The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series title will be decided this week.
UPGRADE
Alex Bowman – Bowman's teammates dominated the first half of the race at Martinsville, but the No. 48 came on strongly in the second half. The nonplayoff driver worked his way to the front and raced Denny Hamlin hard through the final restarts to ultimately take the lead and the win after leading just nine total laps. It was Bowman's fourth victory of the season and kept other playoff drivers out of Victory Lane in their last opportunity to win their way into the final four, ruffling Hamlin's feathers in the process. Last week's success could help push Bowman to a career-best finish at Phoenix this week where his prior best from 2016 was a sixth-place finish. His average result at the desert oval is 24.3 from 12 series starts.
Kyle Larson – Larson entered Sunday's race at Martinsville as the only playoff driver with a confirmed spot among the final four for the championship. He dominated the opening stage alongside teammate Elliott, but then ran afoul of the pit road speed limit twice. Those missteps sent him to the back of the longest line, forcing him to pick his way through traffic from the rear twice. Despite being the most successful driver in the series this season, this will be the first time Larson finds himself as the favorite in the winner-take-all finale at Phoenix, which is the biggest question mark for him this week. He finished seventh at the track earlier this season with one lap led. He has finished seventh or better in his last five there, too.
Martin Truex Jr. – Damage late in the race looked like it would derail Truex's playoff charge. The team gambled by leaving the car on track and risking a cut tire, and it paid off. Despite multiple incidents, Truex soldiered on to the finish and even scored a top-five finish, which was enough to put him through to the championship finale. After the race, Truex admitted he didn't know how they were able to salvage a fourth-place finish with the trouble they encountered, but he can put that in the rearview mirror and focus on preparing for the coming week's title bout. Truex won at Phoenix earlier this year, leading 64 laps for his only victory at the track. That could be a good sign for this week's potential as he goes for his second series title.
Chase Elliott – Teammates Larson and Elliott did not allow any other driver a sniff of the lead in the first stage Sunday, and it was Elliott who went on to take maximum points from the first segment with the win. Another show of strength with a second stage win was enough to give the No. 9 team the points they needed to lock themselves into the final four, but a speeding penalty on pit road put him at the back of the field. Despite leading 289 laps, the traffic was too much to overcome, and the defending race winner only managed to claw his way back to the 16th position when all was said and done. However, Elliott won at Phoenix last season to score his first series title and will get the chance to defend it this week after Sunday's work.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin's afternoon at Martinsville started and ended in frustrating fashion. His Joe Gibbs Racing team failed prerace inspection twice, which sent him to the back of the field for the start. A speeding penalty on pit road under the first caution sent him to the back of the field again. Eventually he got out front to lead 103 laps, all in the final stage, only for contact with Bowman to send him spinning out of the lead just before the finish. Hamlin expressed his displeasure with Bowman after the race, but his 24th-place finish was enough to book a spot in the final four this week at Phoenix. Will last week's frustration be the motivation he needs to win his first series title? He has two prior Phoenix wins and another this week would be his biggest.
DOWNGRADE
Kyle Busch – After getting out of the car with a second-place finish at Martinsville, Busch was asked how he would grade his season. He gave it an "F" after he failed to claim a place among the final four championship competitors. The blunt assessment shows the only thing that matters for him is winning, and nothing else will suffice. He won two races this season and has one more chance to add a third before heading into the winter break. He has three prior Phoenix wins, and Joe Gibbs Racing cars have been among the best at these types of tracks this season. He finished 25th there earlier this year, and his role this week may be more of supporting actor to two of his teammates who are attempting to win the championship.
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski was the fastest Team Penske driver at Martinsville, but his third-place finish wasn't enough to keep him in the championship battle. The former champion, who has just one more race with the No. 2 team before moving to Roush Fenway Racing for 2022, turned up the aggression in the final miles and battled inside the top five as he tried to scratch out a last-gasp victory to head to Phoenix with a shot at the title. The cards didn't fall his direction, though. Still, his third-place finish was his third top-five in the last five races. He now sits fifth in the standings, first among those not in the final four. This week's trip to Phoenix will be his last hurrah with his current team before becoming an owner/driver next season.
Ryan Blaney – Sunday's race started difficultly for Blaney, who battled an ill-handling car and fell precipitously through the field in the early miles. The team worked throughout the first two stages to give him a car he could use to get to the front and fight to make it into the final four, but their effort was too little too late. Missing stage points in the first two segments put him into a must-win situation for the final stage, and rear-end damage from early contact with Austin Dillon, for the second week in a row, made the playoff situation even more desperate. While he isn't eligible to win the championship, Blaney will still be gunning for one more race win. He finished 10th at Phoenix earlier this season with 35 laps led and has an average finish of 15.2 from 11 starts at the track.
Joey Logano – Logano entered Sunday's race at Martinsville in the most precarious position among the championship contenders. He faced a hefty task to earn his way into the championship battle at Phoenix, and he didn't end up having the car to do it. The car was slow much of the afternoon, and Logano didn't have the equipment he needed to battle at the front. Even strategic calls to get the car out front weren't sustainable, and the effort ended up being a futile one, as he watched the other playoff contenders disappear ahead of him. He'll return with Team Penske next season but has one more chance to visit Victory Lane this year. He has two prior victories at Phoenix and finished third or better in the last three starts there.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Erik Jones – It hasn't been often that Jones has been able to compete on an equal footing with the bigger teams this season, but Sunday's trip to Martinsville was one of those rare opportunities. Jones started the day deep in the field in 28th position, but he confidently worked his way forward throughout the afternoon. He avoided the pitfalls that many other drivers encountered, and the team's pit strategy gave him an extra boost as he drove to an eighth-place finish, his sixth top-10 of the season. The finish was his second top-10 in the last five races, too. The momentum is well timed as he heads into the offseason looking to help the team take steps forward in 2022. He finished 20th at Phoenix in the spring and should be capable of improving upon that this week.
