NASCAR Barometer: Blaney Wins With Late Race Pass

Ryan Blaney appeared to be the second-best car at Atlanta Motor Speedway Sunday as Kyle Larson streaked away out front. Blaney finished in the top three in both opening stages in what looked to be shaping up as a battle for best of the rest with Larson dominating. Blaney never stopped working, however, and that effort paid off in the final laps as Larson started to lose speed and Blaney reeled in the Hendrick Motorsports driver. His effective tire management left him with more grip just as Larson began to struggle, and he used that opportunity to pounce, making a late-race pass that Larson couldn't match. Blaney then drove off to the checkered flag to become the first Penske Racing driver to win this season.

Fantasy players may want stick with Blaney and his team's momentum this week, too. The NASCAR Cup Series returns to dirt racing this week for the first time since 1970. This is the first time the dirt will cover Bristol Motor Speedway for the cars, too. Blaney is one of the drivers who cut his teeth on the surface, so his momentum is especially useful for him considering that experience. No one knows what to expect this week, and fantasy players will have a monumental task breaking down the prospects, but Blaney's experience and Atlanta win could make him one of the early favorites.

UPGRADE

Ryan Blaney – For the first time in the 2021 season, Blaney appeared to have the better of his Penske Racing teammates, and he closed the deal by passing Larson and capturing the win. Blaney moved forward right from the start of Sunday's race in Atlanta, while teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski faded from their starting positions. Blaney's pace was no mirage, either. Throughout the 500 miles he appeared to be the only driver capable of defeating Larson, and the team's fast pit stops gave him an edge, too. Blaney has dirt racing experience, and this weekend's Bristol showpiece will undoubtedly be something he is looking forward to. His late-race pass showcased the importance of managing tires at Atlanta.

Kyle Larson – Larson rocketed to the front of the field early Sunday in Atlanta and then went on to lead from the competition caution to the opening stage victory. His speed carried right through the second stage with nearly a 10-second gap to second in the segment. He appeared to ease away from the competition at will until his tires gave up late in the running, allowing Blaney to make the pass and steal the win. Larson has never won at Bristol, but he is likely to be one of the favorites this week given his prowess on dirt. He spent most of last season racing on dirt and amassed 46 wins by mid-December of 2020. That experience should prove exceptionally useful for this week's unique race.

Alex Bowman - Many would have expected Bowman to be one of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers already to have a this season but that hasn't been the case. In fact, Sunday's trip to Atlanta Motor Speedway was one of the first times this season he has looked competitive enough to be in contention to win. Bowman spent the entire afternoon running inside the top 10, which was a step forward for the No. 48 team that had its best finish of the season in Homestead last month. Rough surfaced 1.5-mile ovals appear to be one bright spot for this team so far. This week's dirt race could be one where he does well, too. He was a sprint car veteran on the West Coast before switching to stock cars and pavement.

Chris Buescher – Roush Fenway Racing's speed at Homestead earlier this season appears not to have been a fluke. Chris Buescher and teammate Ryan Newman both showed pace this past week on the gritty Atlanta pavement, too. Buescher made himself a top-10 contender as the distance wore on and closed the deal like he wasn't able to in Miami. His finish Sunday was his first top-10 of the season. He'll compete in the Dirt Nationals in order to gain some experience before taking his Cup Series car out on the unique surface this coming week. He isn't one of the drivers who worked his way to the top level on that type of surface, but he showed this week that the return trip to Atlanta should be another good opportunity for him. 

Austin Dillon – Dillon quietly grabbed a top-10 finish Sunday in Atlanta. His sixth-place finish was his best since he finished third in the Daytona 500, and it came on a track that could signal future potential from him this season, too. He was a quiet contender throughout the afternoon and made all the right calls on pit road to maximize his car's strength as the miles ticked away. He was 16th in the first stage and then worked his way into the top 10 in the second. He never let go after that and drove to a nice sixth-place result ahead of this weekend's run on the dirt. He won the Bristol Dirt Nationals at the track earlier in the week and could be one of the drivers fantasy owners rely on this coming week.

DOWNGRADE

Kevin Harvick – A flat tire after stopping for the competition caution cost Harvick track position. He was forced to come to pit road just as the field was taking the green flag, and he then had to fight to to stay on the lead lap before eventually falling behind. After that incident, he spent the rest of the day trying to get back on the lead lap. He eventually got that job done and climbed all the way back to 10th for the finish for his fifth top-10 of the year. Harvick has three Bristol victories including last fall, but none of those came when the track was covered in dirt. He will compete in the Trucks Series race on Saturday to get a feel for the track ahead of Sunday's wildcard Cup Series race.

Kurt Busch – Busch was turned into the outside wall at the start of the second stage and suffered significant damage. The crash ended his afternoon, which was a disappointment for fantasy owners who saw him living up to his potential at the track prior to the incident, with a top-10 run. Busch has two top-10s from the first six races of the season, but hasn't had one since Miami. This week he must tackle a unique challenge, too. He has past experience on the dirt and tested a modified car earlier this season, but he even said his past experience will have little to no impact on what he will experience this week. He was critical of the series returning to dirt when it was announced late last year.

Chase Elliott – Elliott's visit to his home track ended in smoke just as the race entered its final stage on Sunday. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has yet to find his stride this season, and Sunday's mechanical failure means he'll have to wait another week to get his season on track. The only problem is that this coming week's race will be unlike any other in the Cup Series. Elliott only has two top-five finishes from the first six races of the season, which means this week's unknowns could be a curse or a blessing. Either way, he'll be looking forward to the off week after Bristol in order to assess the problems and make adjustments. The defending series champion has work to do to get back to the front.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski entered Sunday's Atlanta race as one of the favorites but he failed to deliver. The Penske Racing driver started at the front but quickly fell behind as the race got started. He was one of the drivers who needed to make large adjustments to find the speed to compete but he spent the entire afternoon mired in traffic. Contact with Martin Truex Jr. was the ultimate downfall for him, though. The incident left him with front-end damage and searching for a break. It was too much to overcome in the end, and a 28th-place finish four laps off the lead was all that he got. Keselowski spent some time on dirt in preparation for this week's trip to Bristol, and he'll need that preparation to quickly overcome his worst finish of the season so far.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Daniel Suarez – Suarez and his new Trackhouse Racing team had a fantastic day going in Atlanta. Throughout the race distance, the No. 99 machine was consistently in the top 10 and even able to move farther forward at times. He had one top-15 finish prior to Atlanta and was on course to have his best finish of the season before a speeding penalty on pit road ended his chances of closing the deal. Suarez' 15th-place finish, his best of the season, came at Homestead, which means rough surfaces could be an area in which he could outperform expectations this season. Suarez has never raced on dirt before, however. So, fantasy owners probably shouldn't expect much from him in this week's race on the new Bristol surface.