This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Qualifying and practice for Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway suggested the race would be a battle between Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing for the victory. That omen came true with JGR's Christopher Bell jumping out to the front to win the first two stages of the race. However, Penske drivers held position and Ryan Blaney became the main challenger battling Bell for several laps in a side-by-side battle for the win. A cruel twist of fate meant neither driver would wind up in Victory Lane, though. First, Bell's car suffered a mechanical issue that caused him to lose significant pace, and then Blaney shockingly ran out of fuel as he approached the line to start the final lap. Austin Cindric, who qualified up front and had been running inside the top five all afternoon, was there to pick up the pieces, easily driving past the coasting Blaney and cruising for the last mile to his second series win.
While Cindric will celebrate the victory, everyone's attention now must shift to road course racing with a trip out west to Sonoma Raceway. Martin Truex Jr. took his fourth victory at the track last season. It was his third win from the last five races at the track, too. There has only been one other road course race so far this season, and William Byron was the winner of that one. Cindric has a history of success on road courses, but he'll have stiff competition from many drivers to score back-to-back wins. Only seven playoff positions remain to be claimed by first time winners this season, and Sunday's trip to Sonoma could open the door to someone currently on the outside of the top 16 to force their way into the championship conversation.
UPGRADE
Austin Cindric - Gateway has historically been a good track for Cindric, and the Enjoy Illinois 300 race weekend started positively for him. He qualified on the front row and kept his car among the top-five contenders throughout the race, collecting stage points in both segments. That positioning gave him the chance to capitalize when both Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney stumbled. Cindric inherited the lead for the final time on the last lap and cruised away to claim his second series win to claim one of the 16 playoff positions. The result was Cindric's first top-five since finishing fourth at Atlanta in February. While the No. 2 team hasn't demonstrated playoff pedigree much this season, Sunday's victory relieves some pressure as they work to improve. That quest continues this week at Sonoma where Cindric finished fifth in 2022.
Christopher Bell - Bell's pace carried him right through the rain at Charlotte and into the first stage at Gateway as he chased down Michael McDowell, making the pass for the lead in the final laps, and then going on to win the opening segment. That speed carried him to a comfortable stage win in the second segment, too. The afternoon was set to be another success as Bell battled Ryan Blaney for what might have been the race win, but a mechanical issue struck, crippling the No. 20 machine who then turned to nursing the car to the finish. Despite the issue, Bell only fell to seventh and collected his eighth top-10 finish of the season. It wasn't the win he was capable of, but the stage wins and top-10 finish are a massive save from what could have been disaster. Bell has one top-10 finish from three Sonoma starts, which came last year after he started fourth.
Denny Hamlin - The good times just keep rolling for the No. 11 team. Hamlin once again was quick throughout the race weekend and placed inside the top five, his seventh of the season and fifth in a row since winning at Dover. Hamlin jumped out to wrest control of the series with wins on the short tracks, and he hasn't relinquished it since. He sits atop the points with a 21-point lead over Kyle Larson and shows no signs of slowing down. He didn't lead any laps Sunday, but qualified and raced in the top 10 throughout the day, adding stage points to his totals in all segments. Hamlin is on a role and destined to maintain his favorite status for the weeks to come. At Sonoma, he has not won, but he started on pole last year and led 33 laps before crashing out. His best finish at the track was a runner-up effort in 2016. Another top-10 outing this coming week should be fantasy players' expectation.
Carson Hocevar - Another impressive race at Gateway earned Hocevar his second top-10 finish since joining the NASCAR Cup Series full time this season with Spire Motorsports. With two other top-15 finishes, he is getting the most out of the equipment and avoiding the mistakes of trying to push too hard only to come up with poorer results. In all, he is approaching his first season in the series like a veteran and taking what he can without forcing the issue. Looking ahead to Sonoma, Hocevar has one start at the track from his time in the trucks. He qualified on pole and finished sixth that day. In the only road course race run so far this season, Hocevar finished 22nd at Circuit of the Americas. While he won't be one of the top choices for fantasy rosters this week, Hocevar is establishing himself as a regular contender for top-15 finishes with the potential to snag a top-10 when circumstances align.
Austin Dillon - Sunday's sixth-place finish was a turn of fortune for Dillon. In fact, it was his best finish of the season and just the second time he finished in the top 15 so far let alone the top 10. The No. 8 team has been struggling the entire season and Dillon is flirting with falling outside of the top 30 in points. Sunday's finish came against the run of form and both of the team's cars were fast enough to run inside the top 10. While one instance does not make a trend, it could be an indication that Richard Childress Racing is making some progress in turning things around. Fantasy players should still exercise significant caution when considering Dillon for selection until what we saw at Gateway is repeated a few more times. Consistent top-15 finishes may be the sign Dillon is becoming a more reliable fantasy selection. Sonoma will be a test of that considering his best finish there was 11th in 2022.
DOWNGRADE
Martin Truex Jr. - A tire failure in the second stage while running 11th made the rest of Truex's afternoon more difficult than it needed to be. Things did start well when he qualified outside of the top 15, but he moved up to the top 10 by the end of the first stage. Despite moving up the order, the tire issue effectively ended any chance the former champion had at a top finish. He missed out on stage points in both segments and fell multiple laps down to the field with the failure. His points tally keeps him comfortably in the playoff positions, but the team continues to fall short of being able to race for wins. The coming week at Sonoma might be a chance to reverse that trend, though. Truex won last season on the road course, which was his fourth victory at the track. Truex has been one of the best on those tracks, but confidence and momentum are not in his corner now.
Kyle Busch - Sunday's visit to Gateway should have been a good outing for him. His prospects looked good through qualifying and into the race when he consistently placed inside the top 10. Things came undone at the very end of the second stage when Kyle Larson got loose and made contact with Busch after being squeezed to the inside after the pair made contact initially heading into the turn. The result of the pair's disagreement ended up sending the No. 8 machine into the outside wall with heavy damage as the result, and Busch was the one who got the worst of it. The damage was too much for the team to repair on pit road, and Busch drove it to the garage and out of the race. It was his first DNF of the season and will only increase the pressure he feels to win a race. Busch won twice at Sonoma and finished second last year to Truex.
Kyle Larson - One week after failing to get any seat time in the Coca-Cola 600 after racing the Indy 500, Larson was back behind the wheel at Gateway. The Hendrick Motorsports driver qualified outside of the top 10 and was fighting to move forward through the afternoon. At the end of the second stage, he and Kyle Busch had a scuffle that caused Larson to lose control and crash. While Busch exited the race, Larson's team was able to make repairs and restart the final stage, and his persistence salvaged a 10th-place finish when drivers ahead encountered trouble late in the race. Larson won at Sonoma in in 2021 and had an impressive streak of five straight pole positions before qualifying 16th last year, which was his first start outside of the top five at the track. Despite the lower starting position, he still managed to finish eighth.
Alex Bowman - Bowman's five-race streak of top-10 finishes came to an end at Gateway. The Hendrick Motorsports driver qualified outside of the top 10 and then failed to score stage points in either segment. He slipped further down the order through the distance to finish a lap down to the leaders in 28th. It was just the third time this season that Bowman finished outside of the top 20. While Sunday's result alone won't be detrimental to his playoff push, it is still a concern considering his teammates all finished in the top 15. He and the team will be working to get back to form right away at Sonoma. Bowman has two top-10 finishes from seven starts there, and he hasn't finished outside of the top 16 there since 2015. He finished 15th in last year's race, which would be the target again this week. If they do that, Sunday's Gateway disappointment will just have been a blip.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Ryan Blaney - Sunday's race was a heartbreaker for Blaney and the No. 12 team. The Team Penske driver put his car third on the grid and proceeded to race inside the top five throughout the race. The team put him in position to battle for the lead, which set up a multi-lap battle between he and Christopher Bell for the victory. Once Bell's mechanical issue struck, the race looked as though it was Blaney's to win. Despite teammate Austin Cindric closing in the final laps, it appeared as though Blaney was just comfortably circling to the finish, but then he suddenly slowed. Just short of the final lap, Blaney ran out of fuel and coasted the final circuit to the finish and tumbled down the running order to finish 24th as the last driver on the lead lap. He leaves the race weekend 14th in the standings and in complete shock of how an assured victory slipped through the team's fingers.
