NASCAR Barometer: Keselowski Uses Late Caution to Win

Brad Keselowski and his Penske Racing team pulled off the perfect pit stop to set up the win in Sunday's Southern 500. Kyle Larson had been the dominant car all night, but Keselowski kept himself within striking distance and capitalized on the final pit stop under caution to come out with the lead. From there it was up to Keselowski alone to hold off Larson on the final restart to grab the checkered flag. Not only did he hold off Larson but also drove away to capture his first Southern 500 win and his first victory of 2018. It was a strong night for the entire Penske Racing organization as the three cars position themselves to be factors in the championship battle that commences in just two weeks in Las Vegas.

The final race of the 2018 regular season is on tap this weekend with the Brickyard 400. If the Southern 500 is a race every driver wants to win, visiting Victory Lane at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is another jewel in the crown. Kasey Kahne won it last season, but Kyle Busch won the two prior visits. The unique layout makes for a more strategic race with passing coming at a premium. The pressure on teams not already locked into the playoffs will be at its peak, and desperation could create situations fans have never seen at this particular track before.

UPGRADE

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is finding his groove as the playoffs approach, using a late caution to topple dominant Larson to win his first race of 2018. His points total had already secured his playoff ticket, but the win cements his status as a contender. Keselowski and team were among the leaders all night, making no mistakes as they fought to remain in contention until the very end. More performances like Sunday night will help the team advance deep into the playoffs, putting them in position to capitalize on their consistency. Indianapolis could be a good measure of where the team stands. Keselowski hasn't been his best there in the past, but scored his first top-five at the track with a runner-up finish last season.

Kyle Larson – Larson got the hang of racing at Darlington early in his career, and it showed again Sunday night as dominated throughout the 500-mile distance until the final restart where he lost position to Keselowski on one of the few short runs of the race. He had been quick in practice and qualifying, and passed Denny Hamlin for the lead before the race was even 15 laps old, driving on to win the first and second stages, too. He will walk away disappointed for missing the win, but he should know that one isn't far away. It could come as soon as next week. He finished in the top 10 at Indianapolis in his first three starts before crashing in last year's race and finishing 28th.

Chase Elliott – Darlington continues to be a great race for Elliott. He backed up his prior statistics at the track with another top-five performance Sunday. He was fast in practice, fast in qualifying and didn't give an inch once the race was underway Sunday night. Indianapolis has been a challenge, however. In three starts he has a best start and finish of just 15th. However, he has been building momentum as the playoffs approach. His Watkins Glen win and another top finish at Darlington could help propel him to his best Indy finish yet. Elliott continues to be one of the few drivers aside from the three favorites who can be relied upon just about every week to deliver top fantasy results.

Joey Logano – Logano and team had the type of race Sunday night they had been searching for nearly all season. They may not have had the pace of Larson but they were fast enough to hold station inside the top five throughout the night, which is a big confidence builder as they get ready for the playoffs to get underway in Las Vegas. It has been a long road of work since Logano's victory earlier this season, but the team is starting to become optimistic. Indianapolis is another spot to build that momentum, as Logano has five consecutive top-10 finishes at the track heading into this final week of the regular season. The team is growing in optimism as the season moves into its final phase.

Jamie McMurray – McMurray should be smiling after Sunday night. He has not had a good season, but Sunday's top-10 will help ease that pain. Not only was he competitive but he overcame adversity to walk away with a top finish. He was one of the drivers to suffer a penalty on pit road for missing the commitment line, but he and the team didn't give up. They dug in and clawed their way back forward through the final caution periods to get back into the lead group and score a rare top 10 to add to their 2018 haul. McMurray won't join the playoff hunt unless he wins this week, which he has done before. McMurray won the 2010 Brickyard 400, and should be a driver fantasy owners monitor this week.

DOWNGRADE

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson had a quick car early in Sunday night's race, and he said before the race that he was happy with his car for one of the first times this season. He was forced to the rear at the start but marched his way up to fourth before a loose wheel forced him into an unscheduled stop. To make things worse, he suffered a commitment line violation on pit entry and had to serve a drive-through penalty and a mechanical failure. The season has been a big disappointment for the team, but they remain in playoff contention. Just one more race remains until those playoffs begin, and it's at Indianapolis where Johnson has four wins. Adding a fifth victory there would salvage the entire year.

Clint Bowyer – The Southern 500 was a rollercoaster night for Bower. Halfway through the second stage while running in the top 10, he was forced into an unscheduled stop for a loose wheel. It was looking like another good race for him and the team, but the long green-flag runs the race featured punished even the smallest of mistakes. Bowyer fought his way back to the top 10 with a quick car and smart pit strategy, but then clouted Ryan Newman as the No. 31 slowed to enter pit road. The big crash ended his up and down night. Bowyer's best Indianapolis finish is a pair of fourth-place results, but he only has one top-10 finish at the track in the last six visits.

Martin Truex Jr. – An unattended tire penalty during pit stops dropped Truex from fighting for the lead to racing at the tail end of the top 20. He spent much of the rest of the race fighting to get back on the lead lap. He took too long to get past enough cars to be position to return to the lead pack and walked away from the night with a relatively disappointing 11th-place finish. This coming week's race may be the last where fantasy players may want to lower their expectations of him, too. Indy has been a tough venue for Truex to conquer. In 13 starts he has just one top-five. His average finish is 19.5, and he crashed out of last year's race and finished 33rd.

Daniel Suarez – Darlington was not the best race for Suarez last season, and that trend continued again this sophomore season. He had trouble finding the speed he wanted in practice and qualifying, but was doing well to survive the long race until a tire failure in the final stage sent him into the wall. He had to pit for the damage and that dropped him further down the field, leaving him with little time or pace to race his way back up the running order. Suarez's freshman visit to Indianapolis was a good outing and could give him some confidence this week, though. He started 15th and finished seventh, and could really use another top-10 to help close out this disappointing season with more top-10 finishes.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Aric Almirola – Almirola takes the biggest surprise slot following the Southern 500 not for his race on Sunday, but for his season-long performance. Lost a bit in Keselowski's win was the fact that Almirola clinched a spot in the playoffs on points. To think that just a season ago Almirola or the No. 10 team would have only been playoff entrants with an upset win seems unreal. The team and Almirola have truly come to life after joining forces, and have had an inaugural season of which to be truly proud. Now that their playoff ambitions are realized, they have to turn their focus to grabbing a win before season's end. A year ago that would not have been the case for either party.