This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Kyle Busch benefitted from changing track conditions to move to the front and win the Overton's 400 at Chicagoland Speedway after banging fenders and bumpers with Kyle Larson on the final lap. The finish was arguably the best of the season, as Larson tracked down Busch to attempt a pass for the lead that put Busch in the wall, only for Busch to come back one corner later to apply his front bumper for the win. That final turn contact sent Larson sliding and Busch into the lead. Larson ultimately recovered to finish second, and both drivers admitted afterward that the contact was just hard racing with no hard feelings toward one another. The fans should have loved the result after a long series of processional races where a dominant driver ruined any true battle for the victory.
The big three drivers still rule the roost, though. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Busch maintain their stranglehold on the championship as the series enters its traditional second half this coming week with a return to Daytona International Speedway. Austin Dillon won at the track back in February, but that remains Chevrolet's only win this season. Very few have managed to unseat those top three, but restrictor-plate racing can often produce some unexpected results.
UPGRADE
Kyle Busch – A mid-race change in weather played perfectly into Busch's hands. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver had a mid-pack car throughout most of Sunday's race, but came forward quickly once shade began to cover
Kyle Busch benefitted from changing track conditions to move to the front and win the Overton's 400 at Chicagoland Speedway after banging fenders and bumpers with Kyle Larson on the final lap. The finish was arguably the best of the season, as Larson tracked down Busch to attempt a pass for the lead that put Busch in the wall, only for Busch to come back one corner later to apply his front bumper for the win. That final turn contact sent Larson sliding and Busch into the lead. Larson ultimately recovered to finish second, and both drivers admitted afterward that the contact was just hard racing with no hard feelings toward one another. The fans should have loved the result after a long series of processional races where a dominant driver ruined any true battle for the victory.
The big three drivers still rule the roost, though. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Busch maintain their stranglehold on the championship as the series enters its traditional second half this coming week with a return to Daytona International Speedway. Austin Dillon won at the track back in February, but that remains Chevrolet's only win this season. Very few have managed to unseat those top three, but restrictor-plate racing can often produce some unexpected results.
UPGRADE
Kyle Busch – A mid-race change in weather played perfectly into Busch's hands. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver had a mid-pack car throughout most of Sunday's race, but came forward quickly once shade began to cover the racing surface. He had complained about severe understeer, but once the surface cooled, his car started handling much better. That change allowed him to climb forward in the order with less than 100 laps remaining, and he ultimately grabbed the lead and survived a fierce battle with Larson to add another win to his 2018 tally. Busch has one Daytona win from 26 starts and finished 12th in this year's Daytona 500.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick was quick on Sunday despite stumbling a bit during Saturday's qualifying session. The former champion worked his way forward early in the race and then raced teammate Kurt Busch hard for the stage 2 victory to add more playoff points to his impressive haul. He didn't have the same edge in performance after the find round of pit stops, though. That lack of speed dropped him to a third-place finish on an afternoon where he looked likely to come out on top. While it wasn't another win, the playoffs points from the stage win made it a decent afternoon. Harvick has two Daytona wins but hasn't finished better than 22nd in his last four visits to the speedway.
Kyle Larson – Once again Kyle Larson was the top performing Chevrolet. He finished second to Busch on Sunday after bumping and banging left him saving a spin to come home second, but he was among the fastest cars all weekend. His car came to life in the final when he began closing down the gap to the lead. In the end, he didn't have enough to finish the job, but it was still an impressive performance considering how much a handful of drivers have dominated so far this season. The season isn't over yet, however. Larson has two top-10s from nine career starts at Daytona. He'll be looking for his first win at the track and of the season this week, which would put him firmly among the championship contenders as the season approaches its climax.
Clint Bowyer – After leading early in Sunday's race,,, Bowyer ran afoul of the pit road speed limit multiple times. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver could not have had a worse start to the afternoon with those missteps. He ended up more than three laps down to the leaders before the first stage was even complete. Without those problems he might have been in contention to fight for the win, though. The team didn't give up. That tenacity worked him back onto the lead lap and earned him a top-five finish despite the major mistakes. Bowyer has never won at Daytona but did finish as the runner up in this race last season. He finished 15th in the Daytona 500 back in February.
Erik Jones – After underperforming expectations much of the season so far, Jones racked up a top-10 finish with a strong drive in Chicago on Sunday. The Joe Gibbs Racing teammate has watched his teammates run competitively in his first season with the team, while mistakes have limited his chances. That trend faded a bit Sunday when Jones raced consistently inside the top 10 and finished in sixth ahead of teammate Denny Hamlin. His upside for fantasy players remains significant, and next week's Daytona race could provide more. Jones has raced threes times at this track in the Cup series. His best start there came this season with Gibbs, while his best finish came last year when he was driving for Furniture Row Racing, which was a ninth-place finish last summer
DOWNGRADE
Aric Almirola – Things came together nicely for Almirola Sunday in Chicago, but two loose wheels didn't allow him to capitalize on his pace. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has been on the cusp of success often this season. He pulled it all together to grab a stage win on Sunday but was unable to make it stick, as those wheel problems forced him to pit off sequence again. He didn't recover and finished a disappointing 25th-place on an afternoon he could have had a top five. Almirola won the summer race at Daytona back in 2014, and fantasy owners should think he has a shot at repeating that again this week. He missed this race last season with his back injury but should be back with a vengeance this week.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been on the cusp of success much of this season but hasn't been able to find the extra edge that will make the difference. The same was true again last week in Chicago when he spun in the final stage of the race. Had he not lost control, he might have been capable of finishing higher than he did. A seventh-place finish is nothing to sneeze at, but Hamlin leaves Chicago still in search of his first win of the season. Frustration will only continue to mount until he finally puts the pieces together to make the breakthrough. Hamlin won the Daytona 500 in 2016 and finished third from a front-row start this year. His average finish at the track from 25 career tries is 16.8.
Kurt Busch – Busch seemed poised to have a great weekend in Chicago, but he walks away frustrated with his teammate and with a poor finish. Practice and qualifying revealed that the team had plenty of speed. That was also evident during the race, and Busch was in contention to grab a stage win. That win was stolen in the final moments by teammate Harvick, and it seemed like Busch simply never recovered. He was off pace for the remainder of the race and only managed to finish 17th on an afternoon he should have been in contention for victory. Coming this week is one of Busch's best tracks, however. Busch is among the best in the draft, and he will need to get over his feud with Harvick to make the most of the opportunity.
Chase Elliott – Elliott also seemed poised to have a breakout race at Chicago. His pace was consistently at the top of the timesheets throughout the weekend and even early in the race. As the track changed in the final stints his car couldn't keep up, though. It was a shame since Elliott was in the top 10 at the finish of both stages before slipping outside of the top 15 by the finish. Hendrick Motorsports and Elliott have been gaining ground in recent week, but Sunday shows the team still needs to find the finishing touches to remain competitive throughout a full race distance. They get another shot this week at Daytona, which is a track Elliott has yet to finish in the top 10 at.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Paul Menard – For the first time in 10 years, Menard turned the fastest lap in qualifying to start the week's race from pole. It was a great Saturday effort from him and the team, as Ford continued to flex their muscle. This time it was Menard scoring the first pole in what seems like forever, and the first for Wood Brothers Racing since Menard joined the squad. The race didn't pan out as they had hoped, but small victories like Saturday's could show the team is starting to find traction with each other. That momentum from the pole could be a boost as they come to Daytona this week. Both Menard and the Wood Brothers have had their share of success at the circuit, and that should be a positive confluence of circumstances for the team this week.
